Can't help but think BRAVEHEART MOVE is an absolutely massive price at about 33/1.
Firstly the booking of Robert Winston looks significant. This year he's had 7 rides for Geoffrery Harker. Resulting in 3 winners and another place.
He was trained by Sir Mark Presscot from 2008-2009 before famously being bought for 150,000 and sent to Jonjo O'Neills to go hurdler. After four defeats he was senting back to the flat last season. After being beaten out of sight on his seasonal debut he was then only beaten 4l over an inadequate 10f at Goodwood. Stepped back up to 14f he came 3rd in a very valuable end of season handicap at Haydock at 25/1.The winner Kansai Spirit is now rated 10lbs higher, the second Red Cadeux is rated 15lbs higher and Braveheart although only beaten 1l is now rated 2lbs lower than that race (91).
He was actually put up to 95 but was dropped to 91 after his first run for Harker this season. I wouldn't have been to worried about this run for many reasons though. Firstly, it was over 10f - way too short for him. Secondly he has run poorly 4 of his 5 runs first time out:
2008 - 10/12 btn 18l,
2009 - Won a handicap but for Sir Mark Prescott up 5f in trip so they probably would have had him fit.
2009 hurdle - 7/9 beaten 58l,
2010 - 12/13 btn 23l.
2011 - 13/13 btn 11l
In fact compared to last years first run it was actually a very good effort (21lbs better according to RPRs). His improvements from his first runs have been 44lbs,-19lbs,35lbs and 36lbs so he obviously tends to come on a lot for the run. Also Geoffery Harker's horses tend to come on a lot for the run. He's only had two first time out winners this year compared to four that have won on their second run coming on a lot for the run. The fact Robert Winston wasn't on first time but is now should be seen as a positive.
Over 14f last year he stayed on really well and looked like 16f could suit (won over 13f at three). Also he's said to take a lot of driving so the step up in trip could also help in that front soon. He's said to do a lot early on, so with all the pace in the race (Exemplary and Mountain Hiker should make it a stern test), hopefully he should be able to settle in well from his plum draw of 3.
He's won off this mark before and as I've said was placed off 2lbs higher in a better race last year. Timeform give him a ? but his run in that 14f race last year was given 113 which would be 3rd highest in the field. Top rated by Timeform is CHILLY FILLY who could be worth a saver off a dwindling mark (came 5th in the 14f handicap off much higher mark) on his first run for Brian Ellison. ITLAAQ won a lot more easily than the distance suggests last time but has a poor draw.
0.75pt E/W Braveheart Move 33/1
0.5pt Win Chilly Filly 8/1
Thursday 18 August 2011
Addleshaw Goddard Stakes
Although the twenty go to post for the 3.05 at York today it is perhaps not as competitive as it first looks. Many of the field are thoroughly exposed, this is perhaps best shown by the fact that three of those at the top of the market, Harrison George, Pintura and Smarty Socks have had over 100 starts between them. Also there is only one last time out winner in the field in the form of Markazzi.
In the past this has gone to lightly raced 4 year olds or 3 year olds (however there are no 3 year olds in this year's renewal). In the last nine years the record of horses aged 5 or older is: 0 winners, 9 placed, 79 runners. Taking this into account it seems the best place to start is the 4 year olds; Navajo Chief, Emirates Dream, Pintura, Mont Agel, Markazi, Masked Dance and Leviathan.
Navajo Chief (16), Markazzi (18), Leviathan (19) are all drawn out wide and will need a lot of luck from their respective draws. In fact only one of the last 9 winners have been drawn wider than 12 (with 6 coming out of the bottom 6 draws).
Masked Dance has been outclassed every time he's stepped up to this kind of a class, Pintura keeps on running well without getting his head in front and Mont Agel has to bounce back from two poor runs. This leaves me with EMIRATES DREAM who has a plum draw from 5.
An $850,000 purchase Goldophin would have expected him to make up to a bit more than a 98 rated handicapper and there still seems plenty of time for him to do so.
He won first time out as York as a 2 year old before running in two group 3s at the backend in France. In the first he finished 4th (doing all his best work late on) behind Buzzword and Siyouni, who went on to come 3rd and 1st in the Group 1 for 2 year old colts on Arc Day. Then when upped to a mile he finished only 1.5l behind Behkabad (gone on to win a group 1). He finished the season disappointingly at Newmarket, however it was commented then that he was a big horse and the track may not have suited him.
This being the case it is surprising that his last 4 runs have come at undulating tracks Newmarket and Goodwood. At the beginning of his 3 year old career he ran three non staying races over 11f,10f and 12f. The 10f run was especially encouraging as he ran well for a long way behind 110 rated Myplacelater and 106 rated Desert Myth.
When finally dropped to 8f with a bit of cut in the ground he bolted up at Goodwood off a 5lb lower mark with the admirable and consistent Dunno in 2nd. Two disappointing runs followed but again they were both at Newmarket. Back on a more conventional track there is every chance he can improve.
Frankie Dettori shuns him today for Invisible Man and the worry is perhaps that he runs first time out. However he won first time out as a 2yo and as a 3yo was running over a trip way too far. Saeed Bin Suroor's record this year with horses making their seasonal debut in the UK in a handicap is 4/15. However if you only look at those since the beginning of June (given more time to settle down from Dubai) the record is 041121 (50%).
At 25/1 he makes plenty of appeal. Another angle would be to perhaps take the 20/1 Paddy Power offer without Markazzi. However I am keen to take Markazzi on from his wide draw.
Another one worth a mention is Lovelace who has gone well in the hustle and bustle of these big fields in the past and has dropped to an extremely good mark. He's run OK a few times this year and it has been reported that he had a knee operation last season, so perhaps he has just been struggling on quick ground and a bit more cut will suit him. However, Dandy's horses aren't running that well at the moment, so I will probably just keep an eye on him for another day. Prime Exhibit also has a big chance on some of his form, including his second in the Lincoln last season. However, he is drawn widest of all, so although I can't put him up as a bet, I may have a couple of quid saver at 28/1.
Emirates Dream - 1pt E/W 25/1
In the past this has gone to lightly raced 4 year olds or 3 year olds (however there are no 3 year olds in this year's renewal). In the last nine years the record of horses aged 5 or older is: 0 winners, 9 placed, 79 runners. Taking this into account it seems the best place to start is the 4 year olds; Navajo Chief, Emirates Dream, Pintura, Mont Agel, Markazi, Masked Dance and Leviathan.
Navajo Chief (16), Markazzi (18), Leviathan (19) are all drawn out wide and will need a lot of luck from their respective draws. In fact only one of the last 9 winners have been drawn wider than 12 (with 6 coming out of the bottom 6 draws).
Masked Dance has been outclassed every time he's stepped up to this kind of a class, Pintura keeps on running well without getting his head in front and Mont Agel has to bounce back from two poor runs. This leaves me with EMIRATES DREAM who has a plum draw from 5.
An $850,000 purchase Goldophin would have expected him to make up to a bit more than a 98 rated handicapper and there still seems plenty of time for him to do so.
He won first time out as York as a 2 year old before running in two group 3s at the backend in France. In the first he finished 4th (doing all his best work late on) behind Buzzword and Siyouni, who went on to come 3rd and 1st in the Group 1 for 2 year old colts on Arc Day. Then when upped to a mile he finished only 1.5l behind Behkabad (gone on to win a group 1). He finished the season disappointingly at Newmarket, however it was commented then that he was a big horse and the track may not have suited him.
This being the case it is surprising that his last 4 runs have come at undulating tracks Newmarket and Goodwood. At the beginning of his 3 year old career he ran three non staying races over 11f,10f and 12f. The 10f run was especially encouraging as he ran well for a long way behind 110 rated Myplacelater and 106 rated Desert Myth.
When finally dropped to 8f with a bit of cut in the ground he bolted up at Goodwood off a 5lb lower mark with the admirable and consistent Dunno in 2nd. Two disappointing runs followed but again they were both at Newmarket. Back on a more conventional track there is every chance he can improve.
Frankie Dettori shuns him today for Invisible Man and the worry is perhaps that he runs first time out. However he won first time out as a 2yo and as a 3yo was running over a trip way too far. Saeed Bin Suroor's record this year with horses making their seasonal debut in the UK in a handicap is 4/15. However if you only look at those since the beginning of June (given more time to settle down from Dubai) the record is 041121 (50%).
At 25/1 he makes plenty of appeal. Another angle would be to perhaps take the 20/1 Paddy Power offer without Markazzi. However I am keen to take Markazzi on from his wide draw.
Another one worth a mention is Lovelace who has gone well in the hustle and bustle of these big fields in the past and has dropped to an extremely good mark. He's run OK a few times this year and it has been reported that he had a knee operation last season, so perhaps he has just been struggling on quick ground and a bit more cut will suit him. However, Dandy's horses aren't running that well at the moment, so I will probably just keep an eye on him for another day. Prime Exhibit also has a big chance on some of his form, including his second in the Lincoln last season. However, he is drawn widest of all, so although I can't put him up as a bet, I may have a couple of quid saver at 28/1.
Emirates Dream - 1pt E/W 25/1
Tuesday 19 July 2011
Wednesday 20th July 2011 - Arganil
*** Another pretty infuriating result. In fact it couldn't have been much worse. Arganil was heavily backed into 4/1 (1/3 of the odds advised). There were two non runners meaning the E/W placing went down from 3 (when advised) to 2 with Arganil of course coming in 3rd***
So it hasn't been going to well recently and that's probably being generous. There's part of me that wishes it could be mid-winter again and getting stuck into some big field handicaps over the sticks (which is what this blog was set up for initially). In the meantime tomorrow though I have one more whom seems just to be overpriced. That horse is ARGANIL who is 12/1 and outsider of the field in the 3.40 Catterick. I'm slightly weary as it seems I've been follwing these old boys perhaps a bit too far over the edge recently but he really seems to have everything in his favour and put up a good run at the turn of year when conditions were in his favour.
The key to ARGANIL seems to be that he needs cut in the ground (or AW) which he will most certainly get tomorrow. The ground earlier today was described as Good to Soft (Soft in places) and with all the rain we're having it looks like it will turn soft all over. Also he seems to be at his best over 5f and in many of his recent runs over 6f he is described as 'weakening in the final furlong'.
His form over 5f with the word 'soft' or AW in the going description is 1112411111 (2/2 at Southwell, which I think is more suited to horses who prefer to get there toe in?). Yes that is 8 wins from 10 runs. One second off a handicap mark of 100 trying to give 9lbs to Cheveton, and a 4th in a Group 2 (btn just under 3l) when he missed the break.
The RPRs in those 10 runs have been 105, 113, 106, 109, 101, 110, 108, 100, 95, 89. Those on turf were 109, 101, 89 (Won easily). A reproduction of any those efforts really should be enough
He may seem 'out of form', but he managed to run to an RPR of 105 when last met with these conditions in January and his run wasn't too bad 4 runs back when he was second on his side. Off a mark of 82 in this surely he has to go close if he can run within a stone of that sort of RPR. The odds suggest he has 7.5% chance of winning but I think his form suggests he has a much better chance than that.
He has a good record when being dropped back to this kind of class and all of his wins have come in fields of 12 or less runners, so perhaps this smaller field will suit him better than his last couple of runs. Kevin Ryan is in good form and Phillip Makin has got on OK with him so far (1/1 over 5f). There's already been a bit of money about for him tonight and has been cut to as low as 9s but he is still available at 12/1 with Will Hill, Boylesports and Bet 365. With the rain set to stay overnight I can see him being around top price 8/1 in 12 hours time and win, lose or draw the price is simply wrong.
2pt E/W Arganil 12/1
So it hasn't been going to well recently and that's probably being generous. There's part of me that wishes it could be mid-winter again and getting stuck into some big field handicaps over the sticks (which is what this blog was set up for initially). In the meantime tomorrow though I have one more whom seems just to be overpriced. That horse is ARGANIL who is 12/1 and outsider of the field in the 3.40 Catterick. I'm slightly weary as it seems I've been follwing these old boys perhaps a bit too far over the edge recently but he really seems to have everything in his favour and put up a good run at the turn of year when conditions were in his favour.
The key to ARGANIL seems to be that he needs cut in the ground (or AW) which he will most certainly get tomorrow. The ground earlier today was described as Good to Soft (Soft in places) and with all the rain we're having it looks like it will turn soft all over. Also he seems to be at his best over 5f and in many of his recent runs over 6f he is described as 'weakening in the final furlong'.
His form over 5f with the word 'soft' or AW in the going description is 1112411111 (2/2 at Southwell, which I think is more suited to horses who prefer to get there toe in?). Yes that is 8 wins from 10 runs. One second off a handicap mark of 100 trying to give 9lbs to Cheveton, and a 4th in a Group 2 (btn just under 3l) when he missed the break.
The RPRs in those 10 runs have been 105, 113, 106, 109, 101, 110, 108, 100, 95, 89. Those on turf were 109, 101, 89 (Won easily). A reproduction of any those efforts really should be enough
He may seem 'out of form', but he managed to run to an RPR of 105 when last met with these conditions in January and his run wasn't too bad 4 runs back when he was second on his side. Off a mark of 82 in this surely he has to go close if he can run within a stone of that sort of RPR. The odds suggest he has 7.5% chance of winning but I think his form suggests he has a much better chance than that.
He has a good record when being dropped back to this kind of class and all of his wins have come in fields of 12 or less runners, so perhaps this smaller field will suit him better than his last couple of runs. Kevin Ryan is in good form and Phillip Makin has got on OK with him so far (1/1 over 5f). There's already been a bit of money about for him tonight and has been cut to as low as 9s but he is still available at 12/1 with Will Hill, Boylesports and Bet 365. With the rain set to stay overnight I can see him being around top price 8/1 in 12 hours time and win, lose or draw the price is simply wrong.
2pt E/W Arganil 12/1
Saturday 16 July 2011
Saturday 16/7/2011
2.55 Newbury - Matula
A fillies handicap which may not seem as competitive as first seems. Much of the field struggle off their respective marks; Bahati (0 from 10 in handicaps), Belle Royale (0 from 5 in handicaps off a handicap mark over 85), Byrony (0 from 3 in handicaps all off this mark), Sonning Rose (0/4), Rosedale (Run in 14 handicaps and never progressed beyond a mark of 71, so hard to see her winning off 70), Dorice May (Hammered in 2 handicaps off a 1lb higher mark), Imaginary World (0 from 10 in handicaps, 8 off lower marks).
This leaves you with Heavenly Dawn, Watneya, Al Maysah and Matula. Al Maysah doesn't look well handicapped and connections have always said she'll be a 10f horse, so the drop to a mile is worrying. Watneya was very disappointing last time with no obvious excuses. Heavenly Dawn is an obvious one being a typical Stoute unexposed older horse and is a sister to group performer Heaven Sent. She is the one to beat, but with it yet to be seen how much rain Newbury will get (apparently needs it) the top price 13/8 available is easily opposed.
Matula to me is the one horse in the field apart from Heavenly Dawn who has the potential to be much better than her mark. First time up last year she bolted up in a Ffos Las maiden. That day she left such horses as Charles Camoin and Census in her wake. She was then stepped up to Listed Class behind Blue Bunting. That day she ran well desite racing keenly, quickening with the principals initially before weakening. RP commented after the run that 'there's much more to come from her next year and she should be well up to winning at this level'.
This year she has had two disappointing runs, but she's a big filly and she will have come on plenty for his first run so that can be forgiven. Last time out she was disappointing, but like her seasonal debut that was over 10f and perhaps she's better suited by a mile (weakened on her final start as a 2 year old over a mile, so hardly looks crying out for 10f). Also her trainer now reaches for the cheekpieces. Interestingly he has quite a good record with 3 year olds in cheekpieces. He's 4 from 24 with them first time out with winners at 11/2, 16/1, 9/1 and 11/4.
All her form is on good or slower, so any rain shouldn't be a problem for her.
At 20/1 she makes appeal E/W. Also it may perhaps be worth having a saver on her without the favourite at 9/1 with Paddy Power
Matula - 1pt E/W 20/1 Stan James, 0.5pt Win (W/O Heavenly Dawn) 9/1
3.40 Newmarket - Guided Missile
Guided Missile is a full sister and looks thoroughly progressive. The rain should not be a problem at all for her having won on soft last time and her sister Dark Missile won the Wokingham on good to soft. The form of her last race hasn't worked out badly and with the Balding string in decent form the 10/3 available looks massive with a lot of the field yet to prove they go on the ground.
Guided Missile - 3pt Win 10/3 Bet 365
7.40 Haydock - Ingleby Exceed
Another well bred filly like Guided Missile who is starting to make her mark in handicaps. Won well last time over 7f and this trip is only going to suit her more based on both her running style and pedigree (mare won a listed 1m event). She's only been put up 6 pounds for her easy winning last time and with the man of the moment Silvestre De Sousa on board another big run has to be expected.
Ingleby Exceed - 1.5pt Win 7/2 Bet 365
1pt E/W Double on the two at 7/2 and 10/3 with Bet365
5.10 Newbury - Baltimore Clipper
Baltimore Clipper now looks ready strike being both back to a winning mark and also putting in an eyecatching run last time at Sandown. That day he stayed on strongly when in the clear and the step up to 2 miles looks like it could well suit him. Around this time last year he won over 12f in a race that has worked out very well. He gave Nave a 3lb and 3/4l beating (now rated 88) and a further 3/4l back was Giants Play (has since won a Gr2 in America). The trio pulled 6l clear of the fourth and he is now back to the same mark, 75. Another bit of form that makes him look well handicapped is when he came 3l 2nd behind Mount Athos (now rated 103) off level weights, the pair 11l clear. All his best form is on Good, so the rain shouldn't be much off a problem.
Baltimore Clipper - 1pt E/W 14/1 - General
8.40 Haydock - Balletlou
At 25/1 I just can't resist giving Balletlou one more chance. The first time out last year she won her maiden in the style of a very exciting horse, especially as it seemed she didn't have a clue what she was doing. Next time out she was sent off just 5/1 for a warm 3yo handicap on King George day at Ascot (off a 8lb higher mark than today). Even though she was beaten easily (8l) it shows they must hold her in some regard for her to go off so short. She has disappointed twice since but last time she stumbled and lost her action so it is probably best to forgive her the run. With Art Scholar out it looks and open and weak contest and 25/1 is too big.
Balletlou - 0.5pt E/W 25/1 Boylesports
A fillies handicap which may not seem as competitive as first seems. Much of the field struggle off their respective marks; Bahati (0 from 10 in handicaps), Belle Royale (0 from 5 in handicaps off a handicap mark over 85), Byrony (0 from 3 in handicaps all off this mark), Sonning Rose (0/4), Rosedale (Run in 14 handicaps and never progressed beyond a mark of 71, so hard to see her winning off 70), Dorice May (Hammered in 2 handicaps off a 1lb higher mark), Imaginary World (0 from 10 in handicaps, 8 off lower marks).
This leaves you with Heavenly Dawn, Watneya, Al Maysah and Matula. Al Maysah doesn't look well handicapped and connections have always said she'll be a 10f horse, so the drop to a mile is worrying. Watneya was very disappointing last time with no obvious excuses. Heavenly Dawn is an obvious one being a typical Stoute unexposed older horse and is a sister to group performer Heaven Sent. She is the one to beat, but with it yet to be seen how much rain Newbury will get (apparently needs it) the top price 13/8 available is easily opposed.
Matula to me is the one horse in the field apart from Heavenly Dawn who has the potential to be much better than her mark. First time up last year she bolted up in a Ffos Las maiden. That day she left such horses as Charles Camoin and Census in her wake. She was then stepped up to Listed Class behind Blue Bunting. That day she ran well desite racing keenly, quickening with the principals initially before weakening. RP commented after the run that 'there's much more to come from her next year and she should be well up to winning at this level'.
This year she has had two disappointing runs, but she's a big filly and she will have come on plenty for his first run so that can be forgiven. Last time out she was disappointing, but like her seasonal debut that was over 10f and perhaps she's better suited by a mile (weakened on her final start as a 2 year old over a mile, so hardly looks crying out for 10f). Also her trainer now reaches for the cheekpieces. Interestingly he has quite a good record with 3 year olds in cheekpieces. He's 4 from 24 with them first time out with winners at 11/2, 16/1, 9/1 and 11/4.
All her form is on good or slower, so any rain shouldn't be a problem for her.
At 20/1 she makes appeal E/W. Also it may perhaps be worth having a saver on her without the favourite at 9/1 with Paddy Power
Matula - 1pt E/W 20/1 Stan James, 0.5pt Win (W/O Heavenly Dawn) 9/1
3.40 Newmarket - Guided Missile
Guided Missile is a full sister and looks thoroughly progressive. The rain should not be a problem at all for her having won on soft last time and her sister Dark Missile won the Wokingham on good to soft. The form of her last race hasn't worked out badly and with the Balding string in decent form the 10/3 available looks massive with a lot of the field yet to prove they go on the ground.
Guided Missile - 3pt Win 10/3 Bet 365
7.40 Haydock - Ingleby Exceed
Another well bred filly like Guided Missile who is starting to make her mark in handicaps. Won well last time over 7f and this trip is only going to suit her more based on both her running style and pedigree (mare won a listed 1m event). She's only been put up 6 pounds for her easy winning last time and with the man of the moment Silvestre De Sousa on board another big run has to be expected.
Ingleby Exceed - 1.5pt Win 7/2 Bet 365
1pt E/W Double on the two at 7/2 and 10/3 with Bet365
5.10 Newbury - Baltimore Clipper
Baltimore Clipper now looks ready strike being both back to a winning mark and also putting in an eyecatching run last time at Sandown. That day he stayed on strongly when in the clear and the step up to 2 miles looks like it could well suit him. Around this time last year he won over 12f in a race that has worked out very well. He gave Nave a 3lb and 3/4l beating (now rated 88) and a further 3/4l back was Giants Play (has since won a Gr2 in America). The trio pulled 6l clear of the fourth and he is now back to the same mark, 75. Another bit of form that makes him look well handicapped is when he came 3l 2nd behind Mount Athos (now rated 103) off level weights, the pair 11l clear. All his best form is on Good, so the rain shouldn't be much off a problem.
Baltimore Clipper - 1pt E/W 14/1 - General
8.40 Haydock - Balletlou
At 25/1 I just can't resist giving Balletlou one more chance. The first time out last year she won her maiden in the style of a very exciting horse, especially as it seemed she didn't have a clue what she was doing. Next time out she was sent off just 5/1 for a warm 3yo handicap on King George day at Ascot (off a 8lb higher mark than today). Even though she was beaten easily (8l) it shows they must hold her in some regard for her to go off so short. She has disappointed twice since but last time she stumbled and lost her action so it is probably best to forgive her the run. With Art Scholar out it looks and open and weak contest and 25/1 is too big.
Balletlou - 0.5pt E/W 25/1 Boylesports
Friday 15 July 2011
15/7/2011
***Another frustrating result with Catalina's Diamond being backed into 16/1 before trading at 1.35 in-running on the win market and 1.02 to place, before weakening close home to come a close 4th***
4.45 Newbury - Catalina's Diamond - 22/1
Another filly on a free falling mark, runs of 65, which seems more than fair judged on some of her form.
Last year over 5f she showed blistering amounts of speed when both chasing home Crying Lightening in 3rd at Leicester and also coming 5th in the Queen Mary (6l behind Group 1 performed Maqaasid). Since then she has been upped in trip but has shaped most the time as if she will be even better suited dropping back to the minimum.
Racing Post have said of her runs over further since.
10/7/2010 - She might be better ging back to 5f for the time being.
29/4/2011 - Probably a sprinter and might come on for this
19/5/2011 -Left her reappearance behind, doing it all too easily for a long way. She's retained plenty of speed and won't have a problem dropping back to 5f
Seeing as she's from an American pedigree she may need very quick ground to be at her best on turf, so we can forgive her the 2 disappointment on good ground.
Her one run over 6f on quick ground this year resulted in a decent second in a maiden where the 1st,3rd and 5th have one since and where also RP suggested she might be better over 5f.
Tackling that trip for the first time since the Queen Mary, 22/1 is probably worth an E/W bet also.
1pt E/W 22/1
4.45 Newbury - Catalina's Diamond - 22/1
Another filly on a free falling mark, runs of 65, which seems more than fair judged on some of her form.
Last year over 5f she showed blistering amounts of speed when both chasing home Crying Lightening in 3rd at Leicester and also coming 5th in the Queen Mary (6l behind Group 1 performed Maqaasid). Since then she has been upped in trip but has shaped most the time as if she will be even better suited dropping back to the minimum.
Racing Post have said of her runs over further since.
10/7/2010 - She might be better ging back to 5f for the time being.
29/4/2011 - Probably a sprinter and might come on for this
19/5/2011 -Left her reappearance behind, doing it all too easily for a long way. She's retained plenty of speed and won't have a problem dropping back to 5f
Seeing as she's from an American pedigree she may need very quick ground to be at her best on turf, so we can forgive her the 2 disappointment on good ground.
Her one run over 6f on quick ground this year resulted in a decent second in a maiden where the 1st,3rd and 5th have one since and where also RP suggested she might be better over 5f.
Tackling that trip for the first time since the Queen Mary, 22/1 is probably worth an E/W bet also.
1pt E/W 22/1
Saturday 2 July 2011
2/7/2011
*** Like to think I was proved somewhat right about the price by the fact that Catalyze was heavily gambled on into an SP of 8/1. However after travelling well (hit 7/2 IR) he faded and finished towards the back of the field***
Things haven't been going to well recently, but hopefully the corner shall turn soon. Got another one today which for the life of me I can't work out why he is 33/1. Maybe the fact the bookies are offering that price is saying something though.
The horse is CATALYZE in the 4.50 at Sandown today at a big price. 33/1 E/W 1/4 the Odds seems massive with Skybet.
Trainer said in the stable tour about him "He did nothing wrong last year and has done well over the winter. We’ll probably start him off over 7f and see where we go, but he could be one for the Britannia at Royal Ascot. He wants fast ground and there’s certainly a decent race in him"
His 2 year old form was decent. Balding says he wants fast ground and on his only run on GF (after debut on AW) he beat SAGRAMOR by 4l off level weights when winning a maiden. Sagramor of course won the Brittania and is now rated 99. Catalyze runs today off 83.
Next start he ran in a nursery off 85 on GS (so softer than ideal) and ran very well to come a close 3rd. The form of that race has worked out extremely well.
1st - Whisper Louise - Now rated 12lbs higher in UK, since that rating has come 2nd in Gr2 in America
2nd - Byonic - Hasn't run
3rd - Catalyze
4th - Reroute - Now rated 19lbs higher
5th - Fred Willets - Now rated 19lbs higher
He then ran on softer ground than ideal again in a race at Ascot. Off level weights he was only beaten 7l by Dubawi Gold (OR 117 now) 4l by Tazahum (OR 107) and 3.5l by Big Issue (OR 106)
He's had two starts this year both disappointing. But the trainer commented beforehand that he'd need the race first time out (came on a 25lbs for his first run as a 2yo on Racing Post ratings) and last time at Ascot the ground would have been too soft for him.
As a consequence he has dropped 4lbs to 83. Considering the trainer said he should have a decent race in him when he was rated 87, surely in this weaker race he should go close at 33/1.
33/1 too big E/W
1.5pt E/W @ 33/1 Skybet (1/4 the odds, top 3)
Friday 27 May 2011
5 horses who should pay their way over the summmer months
1. Satwa Pearl - 5yo Mare - Ed Dunlop
Satwa Pearl as a yearling cost 500,000 Euros and I believe that this summer she can finally start to pay her way. At the beginning of this season she was trained in France by Jean De Roualle and opened up her campaign with an easy win in a lady riders race at Deauville. Second that day was Sand Skier of Mark Johnston who is a capable 90 horse on this day (hasn't shown it in his two starts since though). 4th Ideology has since improved by 19lbs according to RPRs, the 5th Darizi ran a 13lb better race next time (only beaten 3l in a Grade 3 last time). Though rather than all these horses improving drastically, I believe this form has been underestimated by the handicapper.
Since then she has been transferred to Ed Dunlop and came 2nd first time out behind Piano. That day however she completely blew start and lost many lengths before staying on at the death when the winner had flown. Only up 2lbs for that to 79, I think she's more than capable of winning a few races off that kind of mark. Her two siblings achieved RPRs of 98 and 107, another reason to expect improvement from her.
Entries: Sandown - 2nd June
2. Damask - 2yo Filly - Richard Hannon
Damask made her debut this afternoon at Newmarket and although she finished down the field, there was plenty to take from the performance. Backed before hand from 6/1 into 9/2 she traveled strongly and was possibly last off the bridle before being allowed to come home under hands and heels. However, this does not tell the whole story. This afternoon there has been a dreadful draw bias at Newmarket with all the winners over sprint trips coming from low draws. Those drawn high have had no chance and in my opinion Damask put in the best performance of anything drawn high all afternoon. She has no chance from her draw and could be a bigger price than expected next time as many people looking at the bare form will say she "flopped". A 110,000 Euro yearling, 3 of her 4 siblings have achieved RPRs of at least 97 (97, 103 and 114) and a maiden looks a formality before possibly going onto better things.
3. Balcarce Nov - 6yo Horse - Tom Tate
I have put him in the list as I think he has a big handicap written all over him when he gets his favoured ground. He's rated 96 at the moment which is some 9lbs below his top form in this country. Tom Tate has often stated he needs it like a road and his form on Good to Firm ground stands up to close inspection. His form on GF since reaching these shores is 523203. Achieving RPRs of 107,110, 109, 109, 76 and 106 - which suggests he has something to spare over the handicapper when he next runs on it.
For example on his one start on it this year he finished 3rd beaten only 1/2l off level weights by St Moritz who is now rated 107 after a listed 2nd and a big handicap win off 104. 2nd that day was Off Chance who was only beaten 2l off a mark of 100 at York last time. Both these point to Balcarce Nov running to a mark of 105. Since then he flopped on Good ground at Ripon (trainer blamed watered ground) and then ran a nice race on softer ground than ideal at Chester last time.
Obvious targets for him would be the Royal Hunt Cup (though he has flopped twice at Ascot before, so it might not be the ideal target) or perhaps the big 1 mile handicaps at Glorious Goodwood or York's Ebor meeting. The totesport handicap mile (?) at Goodwood would be of particular interest as it has a great record for front runners.
Entries: Nottingham - 1st June
4. Bobbie Magern - 6yo Gelding - Nigel Twiston-Davies
The first of two horses over jumps I'm going to mention and he is down to run in the next hour in the 19.55 at Stratford. However, I'm not 100% this will be his day due to T-D shocking form at present, but he is definitely a lot better than his mark of 106. I will still be getting involved to a medium stake though E/W.
He is of course a sibling to both Ollie and Billy Magern as well as the game Petit Margot. This is a family who love quick ground. He has been handicapped on soft ground form and hence I believe he is very well handicapped. He has only encountered good ground so far once when he was only beaten a short head on his first hurdle start. Since then he has disappointed three times on soft ground but I can easily forgive these runs, especially last time (has dropped 7lbs in weight). His full siblings were rated 163, 137 and 128 at their peak. They also appreciated 3 mile+ trips so the 27f tonight should be up his trip.
Interestingly he's entered up a few times over the next week, so maybe they're trying to get in a win and then run under a penalty next week.
Entries: Stratford - Tonight, Cartmel - 30th May, 1st June
5. Nostringsattached - 10yo Gelding - Jonjo O'Neill
Another horse who needs good ground, he's very well handicapped after 3 runs in soft ground in the winter. His OR now is 119, which looks very favourable as he's placed off 136 before and won a Listed handicap off 127. He made his comeback at Worcester last week and was noticeably very easy to back in the 5 minutes before the off, drifting alarmingly.
During the race he cruised into contention under AP after hunting his way through the pack. He looked all over the winner before AP, lets just say, took it very easy on him, not resorting to the whip at all. Putting two and two together, I'd imagine he wasn't fit that day and connections have an eye on something else this summer. It's not as if he doesn't find much either as he had the benefit of a McCoy never say die attitude when taking a big race in the summer of 2009 at Market Rasen.
Now he's had a run to put him fit, he should go very close next time and even if he doesn't, with his connections I'd definitely keep an eye on him over the summer months.
Entries: Ffos Las - 31st May
Satwa Pearl as a yearling cost 500,000 Euros and I believe that this summer she can finally start to pay her way. At the beginning of this season she was trained in France by Jean De Roualle and opened up her campaign with an easy win in a lady riders race at Deauville. Second that day was Sand Skier of Mark Johnston who is a capable 90 horse on this day (hasn't shown it in his two starts since though). 4th Ideology has since improved by 19lbs according to RPRs, the 5th Darizi ran a 13lb better race next time (only beaten 3l in a Grade 3 last time). Though rather than all these horses improving drastically, I believe this form has been underestimated by the handicapper.
Since then she has been transferred to Ed Dunlop and came 2nd first time out behind Piano. That day however she completely blew start and lost many lengths before staying on at the death when the winner had flown. Only up 2lbs for that to 79, I think she's more than capable of winning a few races off that kind of mark. Her two siblings achieved RPRs of 98 and 107, another reason to expect improvement from her.
Entries: Sandown - 2nd June
2. Damask - 2yo Filly - Richard Hannon
Damask made her debut this afternoon at Newmarket and although she finished down the field, there was plenty to take from the performance. Backed before hand from 6/1 into 9/2 she traveled strongly and was possibly last off the bridle before being allowed to come home under hands and heels. However, this does not tell the whole story. This afternoon there has been a dreadful draw bias at Newmarket with all the winners over sprint trips coming from low draws. Those drawn high have had no chance and in my opinion Damask put in the best performance of anything drawn high all afternoon. She has no chance from her draw and could be a bigger price than expected next time as many people looking at the bare form will say she "flopped". A 110,000 Euro yearling, 3 of her 4 siblings have achieved RPRs of at least 97 (97, 103 and 114) and a maiden looks a formality before possibly going onto better things.
3. Balcarce Nov - 6yo Horse - Tom Tate
I have put him in the list as I think he has a big handicap written all over him when he gets his favoured ground. He's rated 96 at the moment which is some 9lbs below his top form in this country. Tom Tate has often stated he needs it like a road and his form on Good to Firm ground stands up to close inspection. His form on GF since reaching these shores is 523203. Achieving RPRs of 107,110, 109, 109, 76 and 106 - which suggests he has something to spare over the handicapper when he next runs on it.
For example on his one start on it this year he finished 3rd beaten only 1/2l off level weights by St Moritz who is now rated 107 after a listed 2nd and a big handicap win off 104. 2nd that day was Off Chance who was only beaten 2l off a mark of 100 at York last time. Both these point to Balcarce Nov running to a mark of 105. Since then he flopped on Good ground at Ripon (trainer blamed watered ground) and then ran a nice race on softer ground than ideal at Chester last time.
Obvious targets for him would be the Royal Hunt Cup (though he has flopped twice at Ascot before, so it might not be the ideal target) or perhaps the big 1 mile handicaps at Glorious Goodwood or York's Ebor meeting. The totesport handicap mile (?) at Goodwood would be of particular interest as it has a great record for front runners.
Entries: Nottingham - 1st June
4. Bobbie Magern - 6yo Gelding - Nigel Twiston-Davies
The first of two horses over jumps I'm going to mention and he is down to run in the next hour in the 19.55 at Stratford. However, I'm not 100% this will be his day due to T-D shocking form at present, but he is definitely a lot better than his mark of 106. I will still be getting involved to a medium stake though E/W.
He is of course a sibling to both Ollie and Billy Magern as well as the game Petit Margot. This is a family who love quick ground. He has been handicapped on soft ground form and hence I believe he is very well handicapped. He has only encountered good ground so far once when he was only beaten a short head on his first hurdle start. Since then he has disappointed three times on soft ground but I can easily forgive these runs, especially last time (has dropped 7lbs in weight). His full siblings were rated 163, 137 and 128 at their peak. They also appreciated 3 mile+ trips so the 27f tonight should be up his trip.
Interestingly he's entered up a few times over the next week, so maybe they're trying to get in a win and then run under a penalty next week.
Entries: Stratford - Tonight, Cartmel - 30th May, 1st June
5. Nostringsattached - 10yo Gelding - Jonjo O'Neill
Another horse who needs good ground, he's very well handicapped after 3 runs in soft ground in the winter. His OR now is 119, which looks very favourable as he's placed off 136 before and won a Listed handicap off 127. He made his comeback at Worcester last week and was noticeably very easy to back in the 5 minutes before the off, drifting alarmingly.
During the race he cruised into contention under AP after hunting his way through the pack. He looked all over the winner before AP, lets just say, took it very easy on him, not resorting to the whip at all. Putting two and two together, I'd imagine he wasn't fit that day and connections have an eye on something else this summer. It's not as if he doesn't find much either as he had the benefit of a McCoy never say die attitude when taking a big race in the summer of 2009 at Market Rasen.
Now he's had a run to put him fit, he should go very close next time and even if he doesn't, with his connections I'd definitely keep an eye on him over the summer months.
Entries: Ffos Las - 31st May
Wednesday 11 May 2011
6.20 Kempton - 11/5/2011
In an open looking heat there's one that takes my eye and being massive price I think he is worth a fair size investment. The horse in question is DINGAAN.
He's 33/1 outsider of the field at the moment and it wouldn't surprise me if he headed out to 40/1 at some point (heading out that way on Betfair).
The RP write up of him is "Would have laughed at these rivals in his prime and retained enough ability to land a 6f claimer here in November; gone the wrong way since joining current stable though and don´t need much encouragement to look elsewhere."
The first half is obviously very encouraging for a horse at 33/1 and although the latter half is not so I still think there's plenty of room for having a punt on him at a price.
Very smart at his prime (rated 94 after winning a CD handicap off 88) he runs today off 62. He even came 2nd over CD off a 18lb higher mark just this October gone.
He has shown a liking for conditions at Kempton with his form over course and distance reading 1,7,1,3,2 recording RPRs of 94,81,89,89,86 in the process. Recording an RPR of anything in the 70s should see him win here. Also he won over 6f at Kempton in November.
Since being claimed out of that race things have taken a turn for the worse but I think there's a good chance that his 3 month break could have done him the world of good. 15 months ago he returned off a 4 month break (after a few disappointing efforts) to bounce back and win a course and distance handicap off a 20lb higher mark.
Even his penultimate effort at Lingfield isn't horrendous with an RPR of 7lbs above his OR. Stoneacres Gareths RPRs in his last 3 runs have been +10,+6,+4 above his OR and he's 7/2 favourite. Back at Kempton and after a small to break I think he's sure to improve and with Foxtrot Alpha hopefully setting a solid place with a few others who like to be up there behind him it's not inconcievable that Dingaan could bounce back and swoop late.
1.5pt E/W Dingaan 33/1
He's 33/1 outsider of the field at the moment and it wouldn't surprise me if he headed out to 40/1 at some point (heading out that way on Betfair).
The RP write up of him is "Would have laughed at these rivals in his prime and retained enough ability to land a 6f claimer here in November; gone the wrong way since joining current stable though and don´t need much encouragement to look elsewhere."
The first half is obviously very encouraging for a horse at 33/1 and although the latter half is not so I still think there's plenty of room for having a punt on him at a price.
Very smart at his prime (rated 94 after winning a CD handicap off 88) he runs today off 62. He even came 2nd over CD off a 18lb higher mark just this October gone.
He has shown a liking for conditions at Kempton with his form over course and distance reading 1,7,1,3,2 recording RPRs of 94,81,89,89,86 in the process. Recording an RPR of anything in the 70s should see him win here. Also he won over 6f at Kempton in November.
Since being claimed out of that race things have taken a turn for the worse but I think there's a good chance that his 3 month break could have done him the world of good. 15 months ago he returned off a 4 month break (after a few disappointing efforts) to bounce back and win a course and distance handicap off a 20lb higher mark.
Even his penultimate effort at Lingfield isn't horrendous with an RPR of 7lbs above his OR. Stoneacres Gareths RPRs in his last 3 runs have been +10,+6,+4 above his OR and he's 7/2 favourite. Back at Kempton and after a small to break I think he's sure to improve and with Foxtrot Alpha hopefully setting a solid place with a few others who like to be up there behind him it's not inconcievable that Dingaan could bounce back and swoop late.
1.5pt E/W Dingaan 33/1
Saturday 30 April 2011
1/5/2011 - Newmarket
Novellen Lad is available at 40/1 with Stan James this evening which seems more than fair. Already trading a bit below 33s on BF at the moment and has been backed into as low as 20/1 with Paddy Power.
Novellen Lad is a sibling to a lot of smart sprinters notably Ellens Lad and Ellens Academy. They achieved their best RPRs both at the age of 6 - obviously this is a very late maturing family so there is no reason Novellen Lad can't improve from last season.
He loves quick ground which he'll get tomorrow and importantly is said to be at his best fresh. First time out last year he won by 3l of a 3lb lower mark, and a recreation of that effort would seem him go very close here.
He then performed admirably in similar kind of handicaps as tomorrow off a mark of 93 when coming 4th and 5th at the Curragh and York respectively. Back off a 6lb lower mark and fresh he should run a nice race. The 40/1 looks way to big and will surely be closer the 25/1 all round tomorrow morning (Should be about a 16-20/1 shot in my book)
Top of my potential dangers were Swilly Ferry, Our Jonathon, Silaah and Fireback. With slight preference for the last two.
1pt E/W Novellen Lad 40/1
Novellen Lad is a sibling to a lot of smart sprinters notably Ellens Lad and Ellens Academy. They achieved their best RPRs both at the age of 6 - obviously this is a very late maturing family so there is no reason Novellen Lad can't improve from last season.
He loves quick ground which he'll get tomorrow and importantly is said to be at his best fresh. First time out last year he won by 3l of a 3lb lower mark, and a recreation of that effort would seem him go very close here.
He then performed admirably in similar kind of handicaps as tomorrow off a mark of 93 when coming 4th and 5th at the Curragh and York respectively. Back off a 6lb lower mark and fresh he should run a nice race. The 40/1 looks way to big and will surely be closer the 25/1 all round tomorrow morning (Should be about a 16-20/1 shot in my book)
Top of my potential dangers were Swilly Ferry, Our Jonathon, Silaah and Fireback. With slight preference for the last two.
1pt E/W Novellen Lad 40/1
Thursday 14 April 2011
15/4/2011
Going to try and update this time from time now. Last couple of months I've been a bit preoccupied with Cheltenham and now I have my exams going. However, every now and then I'll be looking at the priced up races the night before to keep me sane from revision. Found an interesting one tomorrow at an alright price.
Newbury 4.55 - Striking Spirit
Priced up at 13/2 with Racing Post that was the price I was expecting, so it came as a great shock to me that up to 10/1 is available at the moment of writing. In a field with questions marking lurking over most of the field, whether it be ground, trip or fitness - he is one of the most consistent of the 13 that are set to go to post.
. He's gone well fresh before - Won first time out in 2009, beaten a head in 2010
. He loves quick ground - All 3 wins on good to firm
. Trip wise - adaptable, slight suspicion he's better over 6f, but ran 2 good races over the trip last year when runner up on both occasions.
. Dandy/Adrian Nicholls have started the season in form - in the last fortnight the two of them have already combined 5 winners (12/1, 8/1, 13/2, 18/1, 7/1) from 21 runners.
. Also you'd imagine Adrian Nicholls could have ridden the shorter price stablemate Courageous
. Looks OK handicapped in race full of exposed horses in the main. Placed off a 3lb lower mark in the Wokingham last year - and would have won comfortably but for the chucked in Laddies Poker Two
2pt E/W Striking Spirit 10/1 - Bet 365 BOG
****** Update 10am Friday*********
Nice to see I was somewhat right about Striking Spirit with him now being top price 8/1 but as low as 13/2.
Got another that catches my eye
Ayr 2.50 - Drop Anchor
In a very open race Drop Anchor looks the play at 25/1. His form is indeed very patchy, in fact very patchy is being very generous to the horse. He has been pretty hopeless in all but one start. But this came over conditions similar to todays, 3 miles on good ground. For that run he was given an RPR of 114, and there seems no reason doubt that with solid yardsticks in behind. He gets the chance to run off 106 today and with a 7lb claimer on his back he'll only be carrying 9st 9. After his win last time his trainer commented 'he needs good ground' so his last run is easily forgiven. also he mentioned how the horse still ran very green. It is hoped with a winter off on his back he will return a more professional horse and know that his job is actually to travel and then go on and win. Trained in Ireland his trainer has had 7/1 and 12/1 winners from his 15 runners over here in the last 5 years, so I'd imagine a bold show is expected
1pt E/W Drop Anchor 22/1 - VC BOG
Newbury 4.55 - Striking Spirit
Priced up at 13/2 with Racing Post that was the price I was expecting, so it came as a great shock to me that up to 10/1 is available at the moment of writing. In a field with questions marking lurking over most of the field, whether it be ground, trip or fitness - he is one of the most consistent of the 13 that are set to go to post.
. He's gone well fresh before - Won first time out in 2009, beaten a head in 2010
. He loves quick ground - All 3 wins on good to firm
. Trip wise - adaptable, slight suspicion he's better over 6f, but ran 2 good races over the trip last year when runner up on both occasions.
. Dandy/Adrian Nicholls have started the season in form - in the last fortnight the two of them have already combined 5 winners (12/1, 8/1, 13/2, 18/1, 7/1) from 21 runners.
. Also you'd imagine Adrian Nicholls could have ridden the shorter price stablemate Courageous
. Looks OK handicapped in race full of exposed horses in the main. Placed off a 3lb lower mark in the Wokingham last year - and would have won comfortably but for the chucked in Laddies Poker Two
2pt E/W Striking Spirit 10/1 - Bet 365 BOG
****** Update 10am Friday*********
Nice to see I was somewhat right about Striking Spirit with him now being top price 8/1 but as low as 13/2.
Got another that catches my eye
Ayr 2.50 - Drop Anchor
In a very open race Drop Anchor looks the play at 25/1. His form is indeed very patchy, in fact very patchy is being very generous to the horse. He has been pretty hopeless in all but one start. But this came over conditions similar to todays, 3 miles on good ground. For that run he was given an RPR of 114, and there seems no reason doubt that with solid yardsticks in behind. He gets the chance to run off 106 today and with a 7lb claimer on his back he'll only be carrying 9st 9. After his win last time his trainer commented 'he needs good ground' so his last run is easily forgiven. also he mentioned how the horse still ran very green. It is hoped with a winter off on his back he will return a more professional horse and know that his job is actually to travel and then go on and win. Trained in Ireland his trainer has had 7/1 and 12/1 winners from his 15 runners over here in the last 5 years, so I'd imagine a bold show is expected
1pt E/W Drop Anchor 22/1 - VC BOG
Results 14/4/2011
Adding up the results from the last couple of days, the current totals from the blog are.
Profit: 47.81 pts
Bet: 55pts
ROI: 87%
Profit: 47.81 pts
Bet: 55pts
ROI: 87%
Tuesday 12 April 2011
It was good to see Kay Gee Be get the job done yesterday and it was just a shame that Stevie Gee couldn't hold on in the opener. Off to Cheltenham tomorrow so once again I've had a look at the handicaps and below I'll note down a few of those that look interesting.
3.20
Kauto Relko
Although Kauto Relko hasn't so far reached the same dizzy heights as his half brother Kauto Star nor his full brother Kauto Stone, there is still more than enough evidence suggesting that he is more capable than his current handicap mark of 127. Having been largely disappointing in Ireland he joined the Rachel Hobbs yard at the beginning of the season. In his first three runs he did not show all that much but since his mid season break he has put in two improved efforts. I believe that he had treatment for his back in the interim which was something that his connections thought was affecting him badly.
First time back he looked liked he was going to win before possibly blowing up. Still he was raised 5lbs for that effort meaning that he creeped into the Martin Pipe race at the festival. That day he travelled well into the race before being badly hampered by a faller four out. In the end he was beaten 16l though the drastic action that was needed to avoid the horse that fell in front of him must have cost him at least half the ground he was beaten.
Back over the same C+D distance tomorrow in a much weaker affair he must close and the 14/1 available is simply to big. Peter Carberry can claim his full 7lbs in this race, so he'll only be running off 9st 13lbs. The rest of the field don't look up to usual Cheltenham quality and it's hard to see Kauto Relko not being involved coming to the last without any mishaps. Like his siblings he seems adaptable to ground so if any rain falls it shouldn't bother him at all.
1pt E/W 14/1 BOG
Rest of Card
I'd give Lexicon Lad a positive write up in the novice handicap hurdle. He should appreciate the step up in trip and I always respect the Brennan/George combo in novice handicaps. He's been running against some nice sorts in the bumpers/hurdles and I'd imagine connections would be disappointed if his can't win of this mark at some point in his career, whether tomorrow is that day though, I don't know.
3.20
Kauto Relko
Although Kauto Relko hasn't so far reached the same dizzy heights as his half brother Kauto Star nor his full brother Kauto Stone, there is still more than enough evidence suggesting that he is more capable than his current handicap mark of 127. Having been largely disappointing in Ireland he joined the Rachel Hobbs yard at the beginning of the season. In his first three runs he did not show all that much but since his mid season break he has put in two improved efforts. I believe that he had treatment for his back in the interim which was something that his connections thought was affecting him badly.
First time back he looked liked he was going to win before possibly blowing up. Still he was raised 5lbs for that effort meaning that he creeped into the Martin Pipe race at the festival. That day he travelled well into the race before being badly hampered by a faller four out. In the end he was beaten 16l though the drastic action that was needed to avoid the horse that fell in front of him must have cost him at least half the ground he was beaten.
Back over the same C+D distance tomorrow in a much weaker affair he must close and the 14/1 available is simply to big. Peter Carberry can claim his full 7lbs in this race, so he'll only be running off 9st 13lbs. The rest of the field don't look up to usual Cheltenham quality and it's hard to see Kauto Relko not being involved coming to the last without any mishaps. Like his siblings he seems adaptable to ground so if any rain falls it shouldn't bother him at all.
1pt E/W 14/1 BOG
Rest of Card
I'd give Lexicon Lad a positive write up in the novice handicap hurdle. He should appreciate the step up in trip and I always respect the Brennan/George combo in novice handicaps. He's been running against some nice sorts in the bumpers/hurdles and I'd imagine connections would be disappointed if his can't win of this mark at some point in his career, whether tomorrow is that day though, I don't know.
Sunday 10 April 2011
Windsor 11/4
*****UPDATE - 6.30pm Sunday Night*****
***********************************
Off to Windsor tomorrow for my 21st birthday. Even got the last race named in my honour! What a day.
Thought I should probably have a proper look at the card, so I'll be noting down some of my thoughts on here.
5.00
Fawley Green
17 raced maiden but his time is going to come at some point. In the context of this race his debut as a 2yo was very good leading very useful sorts Arcano, Showcasing and Party Doctor until a furlong out before weakening. For the first half of his career he was a front runner until midway through last season his connections decided to hold him up. His time looked like it had finally come at Lingfield in July 2010 as he came there swinging before finding nil under Richard Hughes over 7f. A few runs later connections reached for headgear and they were rewarded with two decent placed efforts off marks of 72 and 73. Both times also he had to make his effort on the outside at Lingfield which would not have been ideal.
His comeback this year was poor but that was not surprising considering he didn't have his cheekpieces on and raced wide the whole way. As a consequence he has been dropped 4lbs to 70 and also tomorrow he has a 3lb claimer on so he runs effectively off a mark of 67 some 5 and 6lbs below his two placed efforts with headgear on last year. Back at straight course he won't have to swing wide around the home turn and hopefully should be able to get his finishing effort going a bit earlier. At likely big odds he could be worth a play. Hopefully Simple Rhythm will blast off to help his cause from coming behind.
Stevie Gee
At the peak of his career he was rated 100 and runs here off 69. Usually takes a couple of runs to get going so his two performances so far this year have actually been very credible for him (trip last time stretched him). Also he has not had any form of headgear which comes back on tomorrow. He wore headgear for the first time last year when he ran over 6f on good to firm ground (tomorrows conditions) and he won a better race by 1/2l off a 2lb higher mark. This is the lowest class race he has competed in since his 2yo days and with headgear back on surely if he is going to win any race this season this will be one of his biggest opportunities.
6.00
Kay Gee Bee
Down to a mark of 82 (lowest since 2007) in the lowest grade since then surely he has to have a massive chance in this though I'm not sure how big a price he will be. Key to him seems to be keeping him fresh his form off a more than 40 day lay off is 31112303 (if you take out his one run at 10f - didn't stay and never tried at the trip again) In fact his seasonal debuts have been;
2006 - 3rd in first ever run
2007 - Won in first time handicap off a mark of 80
2008 - 2nd in Class 3 off a mark of 93
2009 - 3rd in Heritage Handicap at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day off a mark of 90
2010 - 3rd in Class 2 handicap off a mark of 90 when 6/1f
He won off a 3lb higher mark at Ascot last year and back at his ideal conditions fresh he has to take all the beating. Ours is respected and I could have a small bet on him - back up to 8f in a big field he looks sure to out run his potentially large odds.
7.35
The days main feature and First Battalion is the one that takes the eye. From a decent family after running first time out over 7f racing post commented that he'd be one to improve massively next year when stepped up in trip. His most encouraging run then came at Leicester on his second run when he was 4th (second string) over 8f. He was a mover in the market and given plenty to do he stayed on well. The form has been franked since with the 1st and 2nd winning next time out. He then disappointed at Newmarket back down to 7f but significantly he was a drifter that day in the market. His siblings seem at home on all types of ground and stepped up by a massive 4f with a first time visor he looks sure to put in a much improved effort. Also Stoute has a cracking record in early season 3 year old handicaps and has a massive 27% strike rate at Windsor.
5.00 and 6.00 have been priced up. In the first Stevie Gee is 6/1 which I've taken. Fawley Green is only 6/1 and doesn't seem value at all at the price was hoping for 12s+. In the 7.00 Kay Gee Bee is available at 15/2 this price is way to big also (was expecting 4/1f and hoping for 11/2+).
1.5pt E/W Stevie Gee 6/1
1.5pt E/W Kay Gee Bee 15/2
1pt E/W Double
***********************************
Off to Windsor tomorrow for my 21st birthday. Even got the last race named in my honour! What a day.
Thought I should probably have a proper look at the card, so I'll be noting down some of my thoughts on here.
5.00
Fawley Green
17 raced maiden but his time is going to come at some point. In the context of this race his debut as a 2yo was very good leading very useful sorts Arcano, Showcasing and Party Doctor until a furlong out before weakening. For the first half of his career he was a front runner until midway through last season his connections decided to hold him up. His time looked like it had finally come at Lingfield in July 2010 as he came there swinging before finding nil under Richard Hughes over 7f. A few runs later connections reached for headgear and they were rewarded with two decent placed efforts off marks of 72 and 73. Both times also he had to make his effort on the outside at Lingfield which would not have been ideal.
His comeback this year was poor but that was not surprising considering he didn't have his cheekpieces on and raced wide the whole way. As a consequence he has been dropped 4lbs to 70 and also tomorrow he has a 3lb claimer on so he runs effectively off a mark of 67 some 5 and 6lbs below his two placed efforts with headgear on last year. Back at straight course he won't have to swing wide around the home turn and hopefully should be able to get his finishing effort going a bit earlier. At likely big odds he could be worth a play. Hopefully Simple Rhythm will blast off to help his cause from coming behind.
Stevie Gee
At the peak of his career he was rated 100 and runs here off 69. Usually takes a couple of runs to get going so his two performances so far this year have actually been very credible for him (trip last time stretched him). Also he has not had any form of headgear which comes back on tomorrow. He wore headgear for the first time last year when he ran over 6f on good to firm ground (tomorrows conditions) and he won a better race by 1/2l off a 2lb higher mark. This is the lowest class race he has competed in since his 2yo days and with headgear back on surely if he is going to win any race this season this will be one of his biggest opportunities.
6.00
Kay Gee Bee
Down to a mark of 82 (lowest since 2007) in the lowest grade since then surely he has to have a massive chance in this though I'm not sure how big a price he will be. Key to him seems to be keeping him fresh his form off a more than 40 day lay off is 31112303 (if you take out his one run at 10f - didn't stay and never tried at the trip again) In fact his seasonal debuts have been;
2006 - 3rd in first ever run
2007 - Won in first time handicap off a mark of 80
2008 - 2nd in Class 3 off a mark of 93
2009 - 3rd in Heritage Handicap at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day off a mark of 90
2010 - 3rd in Class 2 handicap off a mark of 90 when 6/1f
He won off a 3lb higher mark at Ascot last year and back at his ideal conditions fresh he has to take all the beating. Ours is respected and I could have a small bet on him - back up to 8f in a big field he looks sure to out run his potentially large odds.
7.35
The days main feature and First Battalion is the one that takes the eye. From a decent family after running first time out over 7f racing post commented that he'd be one to improve massively next year when stepped up in trip. His most encouraging run then came at Leicester on his second run when he was 4th (second string) over 8f. He was a mover in the market and given plenty to do he stayed on well. The form has been franked since with the 1st and 2nd winning next time out. He then disappointed at Newmarket back down to 7f but significantly he was a drifter that day in the market. His siblings seem at home on all types of ground and stepped up by a massive 4f with a first time visor he looks sure to put in a much improved effort. Also Stoute has a cracking record in early season 3 year old handicaps and has a massive 27% strike rate at Windsor.
Friday 11 February 2011
Tote Gold Trophy
Been a while since the last update.
Headlining at Newbury tomorrow is the Tote Gold Trophy. This year's race in particular looks a classy renewal with many of those at the top of the weights harboring Champion Hurdle entries. Though at 7/1 the field it too is a very open renewal and there still seems to be a bit of value left. As always I've started my process with a trends look and will select 5 points worth of bets at the end.
Trends
. Age 5-7
. 124-135 Official Rating
. Max 11st
. 1-3 runs season
. 1-4 runs in handicap hurdles
. Maximum winning distance 16/17f
. Won this season
. Won a handicap Hurdle
. Placed in highest class run season
. Relatively unexposed at 2 miles
. Best RPR achieved in current season
. Improving RPRs
. Within 1lb of highest ever mark
. Placed last time out in Class2+/ Won class 3
Top Scorers
14 - Final Approach
13 - Bothy, Salden Licht
12 - Iolith, Sweet My Lord, Tiger O'Toole
Selections
Final Approach
The Irish don't have a bad record in the race winning two of the last six renewals with Essex and Spirit Leader. Both of them like Final Approach took in the MCR hurdle at Leopardstown. Essex like Final Approach won, with Spirit Leader finishing a close 5th. Essex took this race easily off a 19lb higher mark than his previous, so it is not inconceivable that Final Approach can take this off a 14lb higher mark than his easy win last time. In fact he comes into the race with a very similar profile to Essex both being Irish Trained horse with only 4 previous hurdle starts who were decent horses rated in the 80s on the flat. The only stat he fails is that he isn't rated 124-135 and he is only 1lb out on this (136). Willie Mullins' string are on fire at the moment and the hint should be taken that he has chosen to send Final Approach across the seat after it was noticeably weak on the exchanges during the week.
Bothy
Another lightly raced 5 year old with only five starts over obstacles. He won his first three before coming stuck at the Cheltenham festival last year in the Fred Winter when presumably the ground would have been a bit quick for him. He then opened up nicely this year when running a very respectable 2nd to Menorah in the Greatwood. If Menorah is Champion Hurdle class then surely Bothy has to run a big race off this mark of 136. The form has also been franked massively also by Any Given Day since who came 4th (partly down to the aforementioned stepping up in trip though). With only 10st7lb on his back taking into account his claim he looks sure to run a big race.
Walkon
I have backed him at 50/1 E/W for the Champion so am obviously looking for a big run tomorrow. A very good juvenile two seasons ago he then sustained an injury after winning a grade 1 at the Aintree festival after an honorable second to Zaynar at Cheltenham. First run back this year he ran a great race to finish second to Tiger O'Toole and he is 6lbs well in on that form here. Also that day his trainer stated that he wasn't fit and was a massive drifter in the betting; so if he can avoid the bounce factor then there's no reason why he shouldn't place at worst.
Bets
Final Approach - 1pt E/W 10/1
Bothy - 1pt E/W 20/1
Walkon - 1pt Win 7/1
***Updated Bets***
Shame prices have totally gone.
1pt E/W Bothy 11/1
2pt Win Walkon 9/2
1pt Win Salden Licht 17/2
Headlining at Newbury tomorrow is the Tote Gold Trophy. This year's race in particular looks a classy renewal with many of those at the top of the weights harboring Champion Hurdle entries. Though at 7/1 the field it too is a very open renewal and there still seems to be a bit of value left. As always I've started my process with a trends look and will select 5 points worth of bets at the end.
Trends
. Age 5-7
. 124-135 Official Rating
. Max 11st
. 1-3 runs season
. 1-4 runs in handicap hurdles
. Maximum winning distance 16/17f
. Won this season
. Won a handicap Hurdle
. Placed in highest class run season
. Relatively unexposed at 2 miles
. Best RPR achieved in current season
. Improving RPRs
. Within 1lb of highest ever mark
. Placed last time out in Class2+/ Won class 3
Top Scorers
14 - Final Approach
13 - Bothy, Salden Licht
12 - Iolith, Sweet My Lord, Tiger O'Toole
Selections
Final Approach
The Irish don't have a bad record in the race winning two of the last six renewals with Essex and Spirit Leader. Both of them like Final Approach took in the MCR hurdle at Leopardstown. Essex like Final Approach won, with Spirit Leader finishing a close 5th. Essex took this race easily off a 19lb higher mark than his previous, so it is not inconceivable that Final Approach can take this off a 14lb higher mark than his easy win last time. In fact he comes into the race with a very similar profile to Essex both being Irish Trained horse with only 4 previous hurdle starts who were decent horses rated in the 80s on the flat. The only stat he fails is that he isn't rated 124-135 and he is only 1lb out on this (136). Willie Mullins' string are on fire at the moment and the hint should be taken that he has chosen to send Final Approach across the seat after it was noticeably weak on the exchanges during the week.
Bothy
Another lightly raced 5 year old with only five starts over obstacles. He won his first three before coming stuck at the Cheltenham festival last year in the Fred Winter when presumably the ground would have been a bit quick for him. He then opened up nicely this year when running a very respectable 2nd to Menorah in the Greatwood. If Menorah is Champion Hurdle class then surely Bothy has to run a big race off this mark of 136. The form has also been franked massively also by Any Given Day since who came 4th (partly down to the aforementioned stepping up in trip though). With only 10st7lb on his back taking into account his claim he looks sure to run a big race.
Walkon
I have backed him at 50/1 E/W for the Champion so am obviously looking for a big run tomorrow. A very good juvenile two seasons ago he then sustained an injury after winning a grade 1 at the Aintree festival after an honorable second to Zaynar at Cheltenham. First run back this year he ran a great race to finish second to Tiger O'Toole and he is 6lbs well in on that form here. Also that day his trainer stated that he wasn't fit and was a massive drifter in the betting; so if he can avoid the bounce factor then there's no reason why he shouldn't place at worst.
Bets
Final Approach - 1pt E/W 10/1
Bothy - 1pt E/W 20/1
Walkon - 1pt Win 7/1
***Updated Bets***
Shame prices have totally gone.
1pt E/W Bothy 11/1
2pt Win Walkon 9/2
1pt Win Salden Licht 17/2
Tuesday 11 January 2011
Results as of 11/1/2011
Ballyfitz placing brought the first profitable race since the Hennessy. Since then though there have only been two races. The latter was disappointing with neither of the selections running their races at Leopardstown. However, I think we can count ourselves slightly unlucky with Noble Alan (was put up e/w a 25-1) who came down at the top of the hill when looking certain for a place.
Vote AP Gold Cup
1pt E/W Noble Alan 25/1 - Fell
1pt E/W Psycho 10/1 - Pulled Up
1pt Win Mad Max 11-1 - Unplaced
Paddy Power Chase - Leopardstown
Vote AP Gold Cup
1pt E/W Noble Alan 25/1 - Fell
1pt E/W Psycho 10/1 - Pulled Up
1pt Win Mad Max 11-1 - Unplaced
Paddy Power Chase - Leopardstown
1.5pt E/W The Burrow Vic 25/1 (5 places) BOG - Unplaced
1 pt E/W Oscar Looby 33/1 (4 places) BOG - Pulled Up
1 pt E/W Oscar Looby 33/1 (4 places) BOG - Pulled Up
Welsh National
2pt E/W Ballyfitz 20/1 - 4th: +8pts
1pt Win Arbour Supreme - Pulled Up
Totals
Profit: 37.26pts
Bet: 40pts
ROI: 93%
Friday 7 January 2011
2010 Welsh National Update
Below are my thoughts on the runner with the scores they achieved on my trends. Also looking back I made a slight typo, one of the points reads 'Max 2 Chase Wins' should be 'Max 2 handicap Chase Wins'
1. Silver By Nature - 15/20
Has a very good profile for the race apart from his weight. Can let him off for his run first time out this season, as he usually comes on nicely for his first start and the ground would have been to far too quick for him. However, he is one of the horses in the field who conditions will suit down to the ground and is sure to run a big race. His 18lb higher mark will no doubt anchor him and place claims are probably the best that he can hope for. Also it should be noted Lucinda Russell hasn't had a winner since November.
2. Dream Alliance - 16/20
Winner of this last year off a 9lb higher mark. However, Cheek pieces haven't shown the same effect since and he has shown nothing. He can't be put up as bet for me as he hasn't finished 7 of his last 9 starts (6/7 over fences) and his weight of 11st7 is going to make it a lot hard than the 10st 8 of last season.
3. Synchronised - 16/ 20
See top of thread for my in detail thoughts on him. 9/2 is no value now in a 20 runner handicap off 150.
4. Watamu Bay - 10/20
See above aswell - very tough race for such an inexperienced novice off that kind of weight.
5. Exmoor Ranger - 15/20
Interesting one. No idea what to make of the ground for him. His best wins over both hurdles and fences have been on soft ground - however, trainer has always said he's better on a quicker surface. Extra distance is a question mark and the fact his form in handicaps is F7712B443 (win off 135 with a 7lb claimer aswell in a class 3) it's hard to see where the improvements going to come to help him win this off 145.
6. Eric's Charm - 13/20
Admirable sort who's done me favours in the past - but his best days look far behind him.
7. Arbor Supreme - 17/20
One of my main fancies back in December at the original 5 day entries. Very hard to get right - but conditions should suit and can run a nice weight with only 10st10 on his back taking into account the claim. Further details on original posting.
8. Dance Island - 15/20
Should love the ground being by Turtle Island, however, apart from his win against Dream Alliance over hurdles his form on soft or worse is 4846543. His one win over hurdles was in a handicap of 105, before struggling when he hit the 110s. He's handicapped on one run in a slow run end of season novice chase, and for that reason I would pass on him at the prices.
9. Ballyfoy - 12/20
Outclassed for me. Seems happy enough in Class 3s. But has always struggled when stepped up in class. Won two Lingfield heavy ground races off top weights (129 and 124), but this is a whole different league off 136. To win an average renewal he'd have to be a mid to high 140s horse off this kind of mark, and looking through his form there is absolutely nothing that would point to that.
10. Maktu - 14/20
Seemed very progressive at the end of last season having started to look held of marks in the 120s. However, took a big step up on that last 2 runs both at Haydock. First he won a novice chase on heavy, before first time out chasing home the progressive King Fontaine last time. Conditions should suit off this heavy weight and has shown he goes very well at the course. Trainer won this a while back with Supreme Glory and is sure to have targetted this one at it a while back. Sure to go close but perhaps better value lies elsewhere.
11. Ballyfitz - 17/20
Not much to add from above. Running on 10st 4 he has to run a massive race if his jumping is any good. Form of last run has been franked by Peveril as well as Barafundle since and at a track/on ground he loves he has to go close of his kind of mark. Interestingly he's got first time cheek pieces on which will hopefully help him concentrate on his jumping.
12. I'moncloudnine - 12/20
Another one who looks well held off his handicap mark of 133, and it's hard to see where the improvement would come to make him a 145+ horse. Trip would also be a big worry for me. Form in class 3 or below chases 131141212, above 2P84U.
13. Giles Cross - 12/20
Bit hit and miss - form all in small field and has struggled in bigger fields. Was out on his legs in the Midlands Grand National last year so not 100% marathon trip will suit. Also showed absolutely nothing first time out this year.
14. Royal Rosa - 15/20
Another admirable sort but this looks a bit beyond him. His form in handicaps not over the national fences is 53PP563P54. He's been put up 7lbs for his last run and that for me should see him struggle.
15. Magic Sky - 8/20
Trips got to be a worry for him aswell having been a 2/2.5 miler his whole life. Getting on now, doesn't seem well handicapped, bottom of stats table - readily passed over.
16. Bench Warrant - 9/20
Don't rate his form that much. The way he ran last time would suggest trip is a massive question mark. Pass
17. Flight Leader - 11/20
Not the horse he once was. Will relish soft ground, but having shown nothing this year it's hard to see him playing a part.
18. Theatre Dance - 8/20
No.
19. Dashing George - 13/20
Has a similar chance to Theatre Dance, none.
20. Old Benny - 14/20
If he returned to the form of two seasons ago he would play a part. Hard to see him doing that though, and pulled up in this last year when fancied.
Result
1. Ballyfitz
2. Arbor Supreme
3. Maktu
4. Silver By Nature
Bets
2pt E/W Ballyfitz 20/1
1pt Win Arbor Supreme 16/1
1. Silver By Nature - 15/20
Has a very good profile for the race apart from his weight. Can let him off for his run first time out this season, as he usually comes on nicely for his first start and the ground would have been to far too quick for him. However, he is one of the horses in the field who conditions will suit down to the ground and is sure to run a big race. His 18lb higher mark will no doubt anchor him and place claims are probably the best that he can hope for. Also it should be noted Lucinda Russell hasn't had a winner since November.
2. Dream Alliance - 16/20
Winner of this last year off a 9lb higher mark. However, Cheek pieces haven't shown the same effect since and he has shown nothing. He can't be put up as bet for me as he hasn't finished 7 of his last 9 starts (6/7 over fences) and his weight of 11st7 is going to make it a lot hard than the 10st 8 of last season.
3. Synchronised - 16/ 20
See top of thread for my in detail thoughts on him. 9/2 is no value now in a 20 runner handicap off 150.
4. Watamu Bay - 10/20
See above aswell - very tough race for such an inexperienced novice off that kind of weight.
5. Exmoor Ranger - 15/20
Interesting one. No idea what to make of the ground for him. His best wins over both hurdles and fences have been on soft ground - however, trainer has always said he's better on a quicker surface. Extra distance is a question mark and the fact his form in handicaps is F7712B443 (win off 135 with a 7lb claimer aswell in a class 3) it's hard to see where the improvements going to come to help him win this off 145.
6. Eric's Charm - 13/20
Admirable sort who's done me favours in the past - but his best days look far behind him.
7. Arbor Supreme - 17/20
One of my main fancies back in December at the original 5 day entries. Very hard to get right - but conditions should suit and can run a nice weight with only 10st10 on his back taking into account the claim. Further details on original posting.
8. Dance Island - 15/20
Should love the ground being by Turtle Island, however, apart from his win against Dream Alliance over hurdles his form on soft or worse is 4846543. His one win over hurdles was in a handicap of 105, before struggling when he hit the 110s. He's handicapped on one run in a slow run end of season novice chase, and for that reason I would pass on him at the prices.
9. Ballyfoy - 12/20
Outclassed for me. Seems happy enough in Class 3s. But has always struggled when stepped up in class. Won two Lingfield heavy ground races off top weights (129 and 124), but this is a whole different league off 136. To win an average renewal he'd have to be a mid to high 140s horse off this kind of mark, and looking through his form there is absolutely nothing that would point to that.
10. Maktu - 14/20
Seemed very progressive at the end of last season having started to look held of marks in the 120s. However, took a big step up on that last 2 runs both at Haydock. First he won a novice chase on heavy, before first time out chasing home the progressive King Fontaine last time. Conditions should suit off this heavy weight and has shown he goes very well at the course. Trainer won this a while back with Supreme Glory and is sure to have targetted this one at it a while back. Sure to go close but perhaps better value lies elsewhere.
11. Ballyfitz - 17/20
Not much to add from above. Running on 10st 4 he has to run a massive race if his jumping is any good. Form of last run has been franked by Peveril as well as Barafundle since and at a track/on ground he loves he has to go close of his kind of mark. Interestingly he's got first time cheek pieces on which will hopefully help him concentrate on his jumping.
12. I'moncloudnine - 12/20
Another one who looks well held off his handicap mark of 133, and it's hard to see where the improvement would come to make him a 145+ horse. Trip would also be a big worry for me. Form in class 3 or below chases 131141212, above 2P84U.
13. Giles Cross - 12/20
Bit hit and miss - form all in small field and has struggled in bigger fields. Was out on his legs in the Midlands Grand National last year so not 100% marathon trip will suit. Also showed absolutely nothing first time out this year.
14. Royal Rosa - 15/20
Another admirable sort but this looks a bit beyond him. His form in handicaps not over the national fences is 53PP563P54. He's been put up 7lbs for his last run and that for me should see him struggle.
15. Magic Sky - 8/20
Trips got to be a worry for him aswell having been a 2/2.5 miler his whole life. Getting on now, doesn't seem well handicapped, bottom of stats table - readily passed over.
16. Bench Warrant - 9/20
Don't rate his form that much. The way he ran last time would suggest trip is a massive question mark. Pass
17. Flight Leader - 11/20
Not the horse he once was. Will relish soft ground, but having shown nothing this year it's hard to see him playing a part.
18. Theatre Dance - 8/20
No.
19. Dashing George - 13/20
Has a similar chance to Theatre Dance, none.
20. Old Benny - 14/20
If he returned to the form of two seasons ago he would play a part. Hard to see him doing that though, and pulled up in this last year when fancied.
Result
1. Ballyfitz
2. Arbor Supreme
3. Maktu
4. Silver By Nature
Bets
2pt E/W Ballyfitz 20/1
1pt Win Arbor Supreme 16/1
Tuesday 4 January 2011
New Blog
Just set up a new blog specifically for the 2011 Cheltenham Festival. Have a look and enjoy. I'll be keeping it regularly updated in the upcoming weeks.
http://cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com/
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