*** Another pretty infuriating result. In fact it couldn't have been much worse. Arganil was heavily backed into 4/1 (1/3 of the odds advised). There were two non runners meaning the E/W placing went down from 3 (when advised) to 2 with Arganil of course coming in 3rd***
So it hasn't been going to well recently and that's probably being generous. There's part of me that wishes it could be mid-winter again and getting stuck into some big field handicaps over the sticks (which is what this blog was set up for initially). In the meantime tomorrow though I have one more whom seems just to be overpriced. That horse is ARGANIL who is 12/1 and outsider of the field in the 3.40 Catterick. I'm slightly weary as it seems I've been follwing these old boys perhaps a bit too far over the edge recently but he really seems to have everything in his favour and put up a good run at the turn of year when conditions were in his favour.
The key to ARGANIL seems to be that he needs cut in the ground (or AW) which he will most certainly get tomorrow. The ground earlier today was described as Good to Soft (Soft in places) and with all the rain we're having it looks like it will turn soft all over. Also he seems to be at his best over 5f and in many of his recent runs over 6f he is described as 'weakening in the final furlong'.
His form over 5f with the word 'soft' or AW in the going description is 1112411111 (2/2 at Southwell, which I think is more suited to horses who prefer to get there toe in?). Yes that is 8 wins from 10 runs. One second off a handicap mark of 100 trying to give 9lbs to Cheveton, and a 4th in a Group 2 (btn just under 3l) when he missed the break.
The RPRs in those 10 runs have been 105, 113, 106, 109, 101, 110, 108, 100, 95, 89. Those on turf were 109, 101, 89 (Won easily). A reproduction of any those efforts really should be enough
He may seem 'out of form', but he managed to run to an RPR of 105 when last met with these conditions in January and his run wasn't too bad 4 runs back when he was second on his side. Off a mark of 82 in this surely he has to go close if he can run within a stone of that sort of RPR. The odds suggest he has 7.5% chance of winning but I think his form suggests he has a much better chance than that.
He has a good record when being dropped back to this kind of class and all of his wins have come in fields of 12 or less runners, so perhaps this smaller field will suit him better than his last couple of runs. Kevin Ryan is in good form and Phillip Makin has got on OK with him so far (1/1 over 5f). There's already been a bit of money about for him tonight and has been cut to as low as 9s but he is still available at 12/1 with Will Hill, Boylesports and Bet 365. With the rain set to stay overnight I can see him being around top price 8/1 in 12 hours time and win, lose or draw the price is simply wrong.
2pt E/W Arganil 12/1
Tuesday 19 July 2011
Saturday 16 July 2011
Saturday 16/7/2011
2.55 Newbury - Matula
A fillies handicap which may not seem as competitive as first seems. Much of the field struggle off their respective marks; Bahati (0 from 10 in handicaps), Belle Royale (0 from 5 in handicaps off a handicap mark over 85), Byrony (0 from 3 in handicaps all off this mark), Sonning Rose (0/4), Rosedale (Run in 14 handicaps and never progressed beyond a mark of 71, so hard to see her winning off 70), Dorice May (Hammered in 2 handicaps off a 1lb higher mark), Imaginary World (0 from 10 in handicaps, 8 off lower marks).
This leaves you with Heavenly Dawn, Watneya, Al Maysah and Matula. Al Maysah doesn't look well handicapped and connections have always said she'll be a 10f horse, so the drop to a mile is worrying. Watneya was very disappointing last time with no obvious excuses. Heavenly Dawn is an obvious one being a typical Stoute unexposed older horse and is a sister to group performer Heaven Sent. She is the one to beat, but with it yet to be seen how much rain Newbury will get (apparently needs it) the top price 13/8 available is easily opposed.
Matula to me is the one horse in the field apart from Heavenly Dawn who has the potential to be much better than her mark. First time up last year she bolted up in a Ffos Las maiden. That day she left such horses as Charles Camoin and Census in her wake. She was then stepped up to Listed Class behind Blue Bunting. That day she ran well desite racing keenly, quickening with the principals initially before weakening. RP commented after the run that 'there's much more to come from her next year and she should be well up to winning at this level'.
This year she has had two disappointing runs, but she's a big filly and she will have come on plenty for his first run so that can be forgiven. Last time out she was disappointing, but like her seasonal debut that was over 10f and perhaps she's better suited by a mile (weakened on her final start as a 2 year old over a mile, so hardly looks crying out for 10f). Also her trainer now reaches for the cheekpieces. Interestingly he has quite a good record with 3 year olds in cheekpieces. He's 4 from 24 with them first time out with winners at 11/2, 16/1, 9/1 and 11/4.
All her form is on good or slower, so any rain shouldn't be a problem for her.
At 20/1 she makes appeal E/W. Also it may perhaps be worth having a saver on her without the favourite at 9/1 with Paddy Power
Matula - 1pt E/W 20/1 Stan James, 0.5pt Win (W/O Heavenly Dawn) 9/1
3.40 Newmarket - Guided Missile
Guided Missile is a full sister and looks thoroughly progressive. The rain should not be a problem at all for her having won on soft last time and her sister Dark Missile won the Wokingham on good to soft. The form of her last race hasn't worked out badly and with the Balding string in decent form the 10/3 available looks massive with a lot of the field yet to prove they go on the ground.
Guided Missile - 3pt Win 10/3 Bet 365
7.40 Haydock - Ingleby Exceed
Another well bred filly like Guided Missile who is starting to make her mark in handicaps. Won well last time over 7f and this trip is only going to suit her more based on both her running style and pedigree (mare won a listed 1m event). She's only been put up 6 pounds for her easy winning last time and with the man of the moment Silvestre De Sousa on board another big run has to be expected.
Ingleby Exceed - 1.5pt Win 7/2 Bet 365
1pt E/W Double on the two at 7/2 and 10/3 with Bet365
5.10 Newbury - Baltimore Clipper
Baltimore Clipper now looks ready strike being both back to a winning mark and also putting in an eyecatching run last time at Sandown. That day he stayed on strongly when in the clear and the step up to 2 miles looks like it could well suit him. Around this time last year he won over 12f in a race that has worked out very well. He gave Nave a 3lb and 3/4l beating (now rated 88) and a further 3/4l back was Giants Play (has since won a Gr2 in America). The trio pulled 6l clear of the fourth and he is now back to the same mark, 75. Another bit of form that makes him look well handicapped is when he came 3l 2nd behind Mount Athos (now rated 103) off level weights, the pair 11l clear. All his best form is on Good, so the rain shouldn't be much off a problem.
Baltimore Clipper - 1pt E/W 14/1 - General
8.40 Haydock - Balletlou
At 25/1 I just can't resist giving Balletlou one more chance. The first time out last year she won her maiden in the style of a very exciting horse, especially as it seemed she didn't have a clue what she was doing. Next time out she was sent off just 5/1 for a warm 3yo handicap on King George day at Ascot (off a 8lb higher mark than today). Even though she was beaten easily (8l) it shows they must hold her in some regard for her to go off so short. She has disappointed twice since but last time she stumbled and lost her action so it is probably best to forgive her the run. With Art Scholar out it looks and open and weak contest and 25/1 is too big.
Balletlou - 0.5pt E/W 25/1 Boylesports
A fillies handicap which may not seem as competitive as first seems. Much of the field struggle off their respective marks; Bahati (0 from 10 in handicaps), Belle Royale (0 from 5 in handicaps off a handicap mark over 85), Byrony (0 from 3 in handicaps all off this mark), Sonning Rose (0/4), Rosedale (Run in 14 handicaps and never progressed beyond a mark of 71, so hard to see her winning off 70), Dorice May (Hammered in 2 handicaps off a 1lb higher mark), Imaginary World (0 from 10 in handicaps, 8 off lower marks).
This leaves you with Heavenly Dawn, Watneya, Al Maysah and Matula. Al Maysah doesn't look well handicapped and connections have always said she'll be a 10f horse, so the drop to a mile is worrying. Watneya was very disappointing last time with no obvious excuses. Heavenly Dawn is an obvious one being a typical Stoute unexposed older horse and is a sister to group performer Heaven Sent. She is the one to beat, but with it yet to be seen how much rain Newbury will get (apparently needs it) the top price 13/8 available is easily opposed.
Matula to me is the one horse in the field apart from Heavenly Dawn who has the potential to be much better than her mark. First time up last year she bolted up in a Ffos Las maiden. That day she left such horses as Charles Camoin and Census in her wake. She was then stepped up to Listed Class behind Blue Bunting. That day she ran well desite racing keenly, quickening with the principals initially before weakening. RP commented after the run that 'there's much more to come from her next year and she should be well up to winning at this level'.
This year she has had two disappointing runs, but she's a big filly and she will have come on plenty for his first run so that can be forgiven. Last time out she was disappointing, but like her seasonal debut that was over 10f and perhaps she's better suited by a mile (weakened on her final start as a 2 year old over a mile, so hardly looks crying out for 10f). Also her trainer now reaches for the cheekpieces. Interestingly he has quite a good record with 3 year olds in cheekpieces. He's 4 from 24 with them first time out with winners at 11/2, 16/1, 9/1 and 11/4.
All her form is on good or slower, so any rain shouldn't be a problem for her.
At 20/1 she makes appeal E/W. Also it may perhaps be worth having a saver on her without the favourite at 9/1 with Paddy Power
Matula - 1pt E/W 20/1 Stan James, 0.5pt Win (W/O Heavenly Dawn) 9/1
3.40 Newmarket - Guided Missile
Guided Missile is a full sister and looks thoroughly progressive. The rain should not be a problem at all for her having won on soft last time and her sister Dark Missile won the Wokingham on good to soft. The form of her last race hasn't worked out badly and with the Balding string in decent form the 10/3 available looks massive with a lot of the field yet to prove they go on the ground.
Guided Missile - 3pt Win 10/3 Bet 365
7.40 Haydock - Ingleby Exceed
Another well bred filly like Guided Missile who is starting to make her mark in handicaps. Won well last time over 7f and this trip is only going to suit her more based on both her running style and pedigree (mare won a listed 1m event). She's only been put up 6 pounds for her easy winning last time and with the man of the moment Silvestre De Sousa on board another big run has to be expected.
Ingleby Exceed - 1.5pt Win 7/2 Bet 365
1pt E/W Double on the two at 7/2 and 10/3 with Bet365
5.10 Newbury - Baltimore Clipper
Baltimore Clipper now looks ready strike being both back to a winning mark and also putting in an eyecatching run last time at Sandown. That day he stayed on strongly when in the clear and the step up to 2 miles looks like it could well suit him. Around this time last year he won over 12f in a race that has worked out very well. He gave Nave a 3lb and 3/4l beating (now rated 88) and a further 3/4l back was Giants Play (has since won a Gr2 in America). The trio pulled 6l clear of the fourth and he is now back to the same mark, 75. Another bit of form that makes him look well handicapped is when he came 3l 2nd behind Mount Athos (now rated 103) off level weights, the pair 11l clear. All his best form is on Good, so the rain shouldn't be much off a problem.
Baltimore Clipper - 1pt E/W 14/1 - General
8.40 Haydock - Balletlou
At 25/1 I just can't resist giving Balletlou one more chance. The first time out last year she won her maiden in the style of a very exciting horse, especially as it seemed she didn't have a clue what she was doing. Next time out she was sent off just 5/1 for a warm 3yo handicap on King George day at Ascot (off a 8lb higher mark than today). Even though she was beaten easily (8l) it shows they must hold her in some regard for her to go off so short. She has disappointed twice since but last time she stumbled and lost her action so it is probably best to forgive her the run. With Art Scholar out it looks and open and weak contest and 25/1 is too big.
Balletlou - 0.5pt E/W 25/1 Boylesports
Friday 15 July 2011
15/7/2011
***Another frustrating result with Catalina's Diamond being backed into 16/1 before trading at 1.35 in-running on the win market and 1.02 to place, before weakening close home to come a close 4th***
4.45 Newbury - Catalina's Diamond - 22/1
Another filly on a free falling mark, runs of 65, which seems more than fair judged on some of her form.
Last year over 5f she showed blistering amounts of speed when both chasing home Crying Lightening in 3rd at Leicester and also coming 5th in the Queen Mary (6l behind Group 1 performed Maqaasid). Since then she has been upped in trip but has shaped most the time as if she will be even better suited dropping back to the minimum.
Racing Post have said of her runs over further since.
10/7/2010 - She might be better ging back to 5f for the time being.
29/4/2011 - Probably a sprinter and might come on for this
19/5/2011 -Left her reappearance behind, doing it all too easily for a long way. She's retained plenty of speed and won't have a problem dropping back to 5f
Seeing as she's from an American pedigree she may need very quick ground to be at her best on turf, so we can forgive her the 2 disappointment on good ground.
Her one run over 6f on quick ground this year resulted in a decent second in a maiden where the 1st,3rd and 5th have one since and where also RP suggested she might be better over 5f.
Tackling that trip for the first time since the Queen Mary, 22/1 is probably worth an E/W bet also.
1pt E/W 22/1
4.45 Newbury - Catalina's Diamond - 22/1
Another filly on a free falling mark, runs of 65, which seems more than fair judged on some of her form.
Last year over 5f she showed blistering amounts of speed when both chasing home Crying Lightening in 3rd at Leicester and also coming 5th in the Queen Mary (6l behind Group 1 performed Maqaasid). Since then she has been upped in trip but has shaped most the time as if she will be even better suited dropping back to the minimum.
Racing Post have said of her runs over further since.
10/7/2010 - She might be better ging back to 5f for the time being.
29/4/2011 - Probably a sprinter and might come on for this
19/5/2011 -Left her reappearance behind, doing it all too easily for a long way. She's retained plenty of speed and won't have a problem dropping back to 5f
Seeing as she's from an American pedigree she may need very quick ground to be at her best on turf, so we can forgive her the 2 disappointment on good ground.
Her one run over 6f on quick ground this year resulted in a decent second in a maiden where the 1st,3rd and 5th have one since and where also RP suggested she might be better over 5f.
Tackling that trip for the first time since the Queen Mary, 22/1 is probably worth an E/W bet also.
1pt E/W 22/1
Saturday 2 July 2011
2/7/2011
*** Like to think I was proved somewhat right about the price by the fact that Catalyze was heavily gambled on into an SP of 8/1. However after travelling well (hit 7/2 IR) he faded and finished towards the back of the field***
Things haven't been going to well recently, but hopefully the corner shall turn soon. Got another one today which for the life of me I can't work out why he is 33/1. Maybe the fact the bookies are offering that price is saying something though.
The horse is CATALYZE in the 4.50 at Sandown today at a big price. 33/1 E/W 1/4 the Odds seems massive with Skybet.
Trainer said in the stable tour about him "He did nothing wrong last year and has done well over the winter. We’ll probably start him off over 7f and see where we go, but he could be one for the Britannia at Royal Ascot. He wants fast ground and there’s certainly a decent race in him"
His 2 year old form was decent. Balding says he wants fast ground and on his only run on GF (after debut on AW) he beat SAGRAMOR by 4l off level weights when winning a maiden. Sagramor of course won the Brittania and is now rated 99. Catalyze runs today off 83.
Next start he ran in a nursery off 85 on GS (so softer than ideal) and ran very well to come a close 3rd. The form of that race has worked out extremely well.
1st - Whisper Louise - Now rated 12lbs higher in UK, since that rating has come 2nd in Gr2 in America
2nd - Byonic - Hasn't run
3rd - Catalyze
4th - Reroute - Now rated 19lbs higher
5th - Fred Willets - Now rated 19lbs higher
He then ran on softer ground than ideal again in a race at Ascot. Off level weights he was only beaten 7l by Dubawi Gold (OR 117 now) 4l by Tazahum (OR 107) and 3.5l by Big Issue (OR 106)
He's had two starts this year both disappointing. But the trainer commented beforehand that he'd need the race first time out (came on a 25lbs for his first run as a 2yo on Racing Post ratings) and last time at Ascot the ground would have been too soft for him.
As a consequence he has dropped 4lbs to 83. Considering the trainer said he should have a decent race in him when he was rated 87, surely in this weaker race he should go close at 33/1.
33/1 too big E/W
1.5pt E/W @ 33/1 Skybet (1/4 the odds, top 3)
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