Been a while since the last update.
Headlining at Newbury tomorrow is the Tote Gold Trophy. This year's race in particular looks a classy renewal with many of those at the top of the weights harboring Champion Hurdle entries. Though at 7/1 the field it too is a very open renewal and there still seems to be a bit of value left. As always I've started my process with a trends look and will select 5 points worth of bets at the end.
Trends
. Age 5-7
. 124-135 Official Rating
. Max 11st
. 1-3 runs season
. 1-4 runs in handicap hurdles
. Maximum winning distance 16/17f
. Won this season
. Won a handicap Hurdle
. Placed in highest class run season
. Relatively unexposed at 2 miles
. Best RPR achieved in current season
. Improving RPRs
. Within 1lb of highest ever mark
. Placed last time out in Class2+/ Won class 3
Top Scorers
14 - Final Approach
13 - Bothy, Salden Licht
12 - Iolith, Sweet My Lord, Tiger O'Toole
Selections
Final Approach
The Irish don't have a bad record in the race winning two of the last six renewals with Essex and Spirit Leader. Both of them like Final Approach took in the MCR hurdle at Leopardstown. Essex like Final Approach won, with Spirit Leader finishing a close 5th. Essex took this race easily off a 19lb higher mark than his previous, so it is not inconceivable that Final Approach can take this off a 14lb higher mark than his easy win last time. In fact he comes into the race with a very similar profile to Essex both being Irish Trained horse with only 4 previous hurdle starts who were decent horses rated in the 80s on the flat. The only stat he fails is that he isn't rated 124-135 and he is only 1lb out on this (136). Willie Mullins' string are on fire at the moment and the hint should be taken that he has chosen to send Final Approach across the seat after it was noticeably weak on the exchanges during the week.
Bothy
Another lightly raced 5 year old with only five starts over obstacles. He won his first three before coming stuck at the Cheltenham festival last year in the Fred Winter when presumably the ground would have been a bit quick for him. He then opened up nicely this year when running a very respectable 2nd to Menorah in the Greatwood. If Menorah is Champion Hurdle class then surely Bothy has to run a big race off this mark of 136. The form has also been franked massively also by Any Given Day since who came 4th (partly down to the aforementioned stepping up in trip though). With only 10st7lb on his back taking into account his claim he looks sure to run a big race.
Walkon
I have backed him at 50/1 E/W for the Champion so am obviously looking for a big run tomorrow. A very good juvenile two seasons ago he then sustained an injury after winning a grade 1 at the Aintree festival after an honorable second to Zaynar at Cheltenham. First run back this year he ran a great race to finish second to Tiger O'Toole and he is 6lbs well in on that form here. Also that day his trainer stated that he wasn't fit and was a massive drifter in the betting; so if he can avoid the bounce factor then there's no reason why he shouldn't place at worst.
Bets
Final Approach - 1pt E/W 10/1
Bothy - 1pt E/W 20/1
Walkon - 1pt Win 7/1
***Updated Bets***
Shame prices have totally gone.
1pt E/W Bothy 11/1
2pt Win Walkon 9/2
1pt Win Salden Licht 17/2
