Paddy Power Chase (Grade B) (Extended Handicap) Preview

At last the weather has cleared up and below are my thoughts on the big handicap in Ireland tomorrow. As always I have approached it initially from a trends based approach. The trends I have found for the race are:

Age 6-8

2-4 runs season

3-12 runs chases

1-7 runs handicap chases

Max 22 lifetime starts

Won 1-3 chases

Won max 1 handicap chase

Not run in 25k+ race this season

Placed in 20k+ chase

Placed in a handicap chase

Not won more than 1 chase over 3 miles

Max 3 finishes in 3m handicaps

21-49 days rest

Top 5 last time out

1-3 Seasons chasing

Won 15+ field

Carrying max 10st 11

Running off a mark of max 124 (taking off rider's claim if necessary)

Of these, the last 10 winners bar Cane Brake, all scored at least 16. Cane Brake however went on to be beaten not too far in that year's Gold Cup, however, there doesn't seem to be any horse of that calibre in the race this year.

This year's top scorers

16 - Undergraduate, Old Si, The Burrow Vic and Glenquest.

Selections

The Burrow Vic - 25/1 Paddy Power (Each way first 5 places)

After his first win over hurdles his trainer stated that he 'needs 3 miles', so it's perhaps surprising that since then he's only run twice over the trip. First time was in a novice handicap hurdle when he came 3rd to Quite De La Roque (pulling 16l clear of 4th in a 25 runner field). That form has been franked with the winner coming 2nd in the Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown today. The second time he won at Sligo last time out. He only won by 1.25l but he travelled by far the best horse in the race and cruised to the last, only having to be got at late when another horse came late too. He's been raised 13lbs for that, which may seem harsh, but he definitely won with a fair bit in hand. His form on heavy is 54313, so he'll obviously handle the conditions well. Like Glenquest he's off a featherweight (9st 10) and is very unexposed at the trip, so at 25/1 he rates good value.

Oscar Looby - 33/1 Will Hill

Probably the best handicapped horse in the field on his piece of form when he beat Alpha Ridge and Telenor. Can't see too many negatives on him, trip maybe a slight question (only won once over 3miles - slow time), though interestingly 4 of the last 10 winners had not won at the trip yet. Also he has a claimer on - but 5/10 winners have been riden by a jockey claiming. Positives are he has 7lbs off his back so only has 10st 9 on his back and he'll love the heavy ground (form with heavy in F121314). Also it's interesting his trainer says he believes he's better going left handed. Most his form recently has been RH and looking at his form when he's run on LH tracks his form is 321211PF (1211 on heavy - only being beaten by Gr1 winning Kempes). He gets on well in big fields (form in 16+ is 33111FP) and it's interesting he has first time cheek pieces on here, which could just make him concentrate a bit. At the forecast odds he is a worth a bet.


Selections

1.5pt E/W The Burrow Vic 25/1 (5 places) BOG
1 pt E/W Oscar Looby 33/1 (4 places) BOG

2010 Welsh National Preview

The first National of the season is upon us, so lets hope it goes ahead at some point. Below are my initial thoughts. I'll approach it to begin with from a statistical approach as always.

Age 6-9
OR 131-152
11st Max
1-2 runs season
14+ runs total
Won at Chepstow if run there
Won over 3m+
Won 2-5 Chases
Won MAX 2 Handicap chases
Run in class2+ season
Placed in a graded chase
If run in handicaps placed in a graded one
Placed in a 26f+ handicap
140+ Chase RPR
20-54 day break
Top 4 last time out
Not out of the top 4 this season
Placed in 17+ field
Run over 30f+
2nd/3rd season chaser

Of these 20 stats, all of the last 10 winners have scored at least 17. The top scores for this year are as follows;

18 - Bluesea Cracker
17 - Arbor Supreme, Ballyfitz
16 - Dream Alliance
15 - Synchronised, Dance Island, Maktu, Hello Bud, Lochan Laca, Royal Rosa, Silver by Nature

Synchronised + Watamu Bay


Personally find it hard to see him winning off this weight. To put in into perspective the only horses to carry at least this much weight to victory in the races history were Carvill's Hill, Bonanza Boy and Master Oats. All three were grade one class on the day, and in fact the latter won the Gold Cup 3 months later. Also all three had won the rehearsal chase that season over the course (since moved to Newcastle and abandoned this season).

Looking at it from an RPR perspective all the last 10 winners (bar the Irish Trained Notre Pere) had achieved an RPR of at least 6lbs in excess of it's OR, Synchronised has not. Also All the last 10 winners have run an RPR in this race of at least 13lbs above it's OR. To do this Synchronised would have to run to a mark of 169, which to be honest seems unlikely.

The race that Synchronised won as novice, has a very good record for those in their first season chasing so it wasn't the biggest shock to see him win. He needed reminders throughout the race so perhaps the drop in trip by half a mile won't be in his favour either. It must be also noted that there were big question marks over his jumping before that run, so there still has to be a slight doubt in that regard. Also he's not overly big, so giving weight away to quality animal could be hard work for him.

He's a very ground dependent horse, the more bottomless the better, and although I have no idea how the ground will end up, it's only officially good to soft at Chepstow at the moment so this has to be a worry. At the prices there are more than enough reasons to take him on.

I'd have similar worries with regards to Watamu Bay in how well handicapped he is. He also will have a big weight on his back (11st 3) and using typical RPRs he'd have to run to 161+ to win an average Welsh National, on just his 4th start over fences this looks a nigh on impossible task for a horse who's 3 chase RPRs have been 129, 140, 144. In his one start at the course he lost to Balthazar King whilst getting 6lbs from that horse, which is nowhere near to the quality needed to win this race. Since then he's only won a 3 and 5 runner race, both odds on. Over hurdles he only ran one RPR greater than 118. At 12/1 he has to rate at poor value also.

Shortlist


My shortlist are the top three in my ratings - Bluesea Cracker (14/1), Arbor Supreme (25/1) and Ballyfitz (33/1).

First of all looking at them at RPRs they have all already achieved an RPR of at least 6lbs in excess of their OR - Arbor Supreme (10), Bluesea Cracker (7), Ballyfitz (18!).

So theoretically Ballyfitz has already run 3 races in his lifetime good enough to win an average Welsh National of this mark, there is also obvious hope for the others to improve. Arbor Supreme ran his mark over 21f which is obviously an inadequate trip for him, so if he produces that kind of performance over this kind of trip (has won over marathon trips before) he can easily find the 4lbs or so improvement needed. Bluesea Cracker won the Irish National last year more easily than the margin suggests, and that being only her 3rd run out of novice company there is surely more to come. Now going through them one by one.

Arbor Supreme (25/1) - Hard to get right, but if he puts his best foot forward he'll definitely be there thereabouts. A winner twice over Marathon trips in Ireland (29f on soft and 30f on good) he should get the trip well and is adaptable with regards to ground. He's falls down on 2 of his 3 stats because of his poor run first time out. However, he wasn't great first time out last season and also even though he won first time out 2 seasons ago Mullins didn't think he had him fully fit, so you'd be inclined to forgive him the run. His form over 3m4f+ over regulation fences is 24110, and was fancied for the Grand National off a similar mark last year before unseating at the chair. Adaptable with regards to ground, with a slightly lower weight than usual, if he's sent over he's sure to run a nice race.

Bluesea Cracker (14/1) - Out of the 3 I've shortlist she's the most consistent as so probably has to rate the most likely winner. Stats she falls down are not out of top 4 this season (unplaced in hurdle prep first time out) and the fact she hasn't run over 30f. It seems a bit harsh to mark her down on this though as she's won an Irish National over 29f on soft ground! She's only up 9lbs for that and it seems more than fair for an unexposed horse over these distances who was also a grade 2 winner as a novice. She ran a great race off a 1lb higher mark at Cheltenham last time, travelling visibly well (travelling miles better than anything else bar Midnight Chase) before blowing up. Obviously much better than that she will run a massive race if she turns up.

Ballyfitz (33/1) - Very in and out horse but if he gets soft ground he'll be a horse to be reckoned with off this declining mark. Loves it soft, with his last 6 runs on ground quicker than soft reading PP0F84. Very well handicapped on his novice chase form there was also room for encouragement last year. Beaten 10l off a 12lb higher mark in Paddy Power on soft ground, staying on over a trip too short (RPR good enough to win this of this mark). He then won on heavy over hurdles at Sandown off a 8lb higher mark. He then ran in this race off a 10lb higher mark last year, beaten 20l. This was especially encouraging as he made a shocking blunder down the back straight and did well to get back into it. He's weighted to beat Silver by Nature on that form and be close to Dream Alliance, and those 2 are much shorter int he betting even though they have shown nothing since. His run first time out can be excused because of the ground and his 4th at Haydock was very promising (off a 14lb higher mark) finishing only behind the exciting trio of Grand Crus, Barafundle (won since) and Peveril. He's obviously likely to hit one but if he doesn't or doesn't make too many mistakes he will go very close off this lenient mark of 134.

It's hard to know yet who will run/what the ground will be/how badly the trainers have been held back with the weather, so I haven't placed any bets yet but will keep this page updated through the week if i do.

Vote AP Gold Cup preview

So the second big 2m5f Cheltenham handicap chase of the season is upon us and a quality field looks set to go to post. Below are my thoughts on the race starting with my 10 year trends.

. Age 6-8
. Max 151 OR
. 1-3 runs in current season
. Max 9 runs in chases
. 1-5 runs in handicap chases
. 14+ total runs
. Won this season if more than one run
. 2-4 chase wins
. Won maximum 1 handicap chase
. Placed in class 2 in current season
. Placed in a grade chase in lifetime
. Won Class2+ chase lifetime
. Good form in 2 and 1/2 mile handicap chases if tried
. 144+ RPR season
. Run personal best this year if run more than once
. Run within 4 weeks
. Good Cheltenham Form
. Top 3 last time out in a class2+
. 2nd or 3rd season chasers
. Not out of top 2 this season since first run
. Won in 13+ field

Out of these 21 trends, all of the last 10 winners, bar the Irish Trained Go Roger Go, scored at least 18

This years results

20 - Little Josh
19 - Noble Alan
18 - Max Max, Psycho, Daves Dream

Little Josh


Looks to have an obvious chance, but the current price of 6/1 doesn't seem to have any mileage in it whatsoever.

3 of the last 5 winners of this race have come from running great races in the Paddy Power. These were Exotic Dancer, Monkerhostin and Poquelin.

The first two placed in the PP and then won off the same mark and 1lb higher respectively. However, Little Josh is having to run off a 9lb higher mark in this.

Exotic Dancer won off a 10lb higher mark, however, he only won by just over a length and was rated 23lbs higher by the end of the season. The equivalent of this would be Little Josh be rated 178 by the end of the season, which looks very unlikely. And to win this he'd probably have to have another 7-10 pounds in hand anyway, which would see him having to run a low to mid 160s at this point which also seems unlikely.

The ground could also be a slight question mark if the conditions stay quick as they are at the moment

Dave's Dream


Another one who's probably best left alone at the prices. I'd firstly leave him alone, as he's been put up 11lbs for a win here in November, which is an awful lot. Secondly he is best fresh. His record with at least 2 months off is 11111, and with less than that 0166340.

Selections


Noble Alan

For me at the prices he is the absolute stand out bet, though there is a slight question mark about him turning up (3 entries this week - This, Peterborough chase (off?), 2m handicap chase on this card). I reckon he'll run here though and If he runs though and he's 25/1, he is a must bet. He runs with 10st6 on his back and off mark of 143.

The ground at the moment is good and with no rain forecast before the race it looks to ride quick which will suit this guy down to the ground (whereas others may struggle)

His form on good or quicker reads 14121121631. He'll also appreciate the galloping track and as well the undulations. He ran a great 2nd here on his only start and was arguably unlucky. He's only run on one other undulating track, Hexham, where he's 2 from 2.

The slight question mark with him is the trip. However he's one from one over it, although it was only a 5 runner field and a very slow time. The other reason for optimism is his breeding. His brother (Full House) was a two and half miler with all 4 of his chase wins over 2 and half. He also needed quick ground and won over 20f on the flat. In recent races (such as Ascot last time) Noble Alan has been badly outpaced before staying on.

The other thing we have to of course question is how well handicapped he is? I'd argue to he still has room to manoeuvre of this mark. His trainer has always thought the world of him and he's only off a 4lb higher mark than he won a grade 2 handicap hurdle last year very easily. He's very unexposed over fences with only 7 finishes (won 4) and 2 starts in handicaps. His defeats have been pretty handy as well. He split I'm Deliah (giving 9lbs) and Noble Request (giving 6lbs), and he came 6th at Aintree in the grade 1 novice chase behind Tataniano. In the race he arguably travelled as well as anything (better than Osana, and not much worse than the winner) into the straight, before breaking a blood vessel and fading. He won off 145 earlier this season also (2lb lower here!) but you'd say it's not relevant as the horses who were close behind him were out of the handicap too.

A strong pace is necessary and he should get this in his big field (form in 13+ fields on quick ground 1121). If he turns up and the ground is quick i'd expect him to go very close.

Psycho

Another very unexposed one, with only 6 chase starts (5 finishes). The only times he's lost when completed are on his first chase start, and his first start this season - when RP said he didn't look sharp and took a big blow. He then massively improved for his first start and beat Osana by just under 5l. RP said he didn't look far off Grade 1 quality on this performance, and so if he is to prove that good he must go close of this mark. All of the last 3 winners have gone on to at least place in a Grade1 by the end of the season, and this sort who's always been said to be a natural over fences looks to be on the few likely to do so.

Mad Max

Fits many a trend, especially given that he's a horse who placed in the Paddy Power running of the same mark. Like Psycho he's one of the few who could be grade 1 quality, and with Carberry back on board looks sure to run a big race. Some of Henderson's looked to have need it first time out this year, and he ran like he needed it last time and so there should be more improvement to come.

Bets

Noble Alan - 0.5pt E/W 25-1 - Various Bookies, 0.5pt E/W 25-1 (BOG) freely available
Psycho - 1pt E/W 10-1, Coral
Mad Max - 1pt Win 11-1 (BOG)