This week the antepost markets went up for the two grade 1 novice chases at the festival next spring, namely the Arkle Chase and the RSA Chase. Below are my early thoughts on the Arkle.
Below are all the runners in the last 5 renewals of the arkle (in finishing order) with their best RPR they recorded over hurdles in the previous season:
2010
|
2009
| Forpadydeplasterer | 143 |
| Kalahari King | 147 |
| Planet of Sound | 134 |
| Made in Taipan | 140 |
| Tartak | |
| Gauvain | 135 |
| Cornas | 120 |
| I'msingingtheblues | 137 |
| Followtheplan | 128 |
| Calgary Bay | 133 |
| Panjo Bere | 127 |
| Cool Operator | 110 |
| Cheating Chance | 115 |
| Golden Silver | 124 |
| Bringbackthebiff | |
| Tatenen | 139 |
| Original |
2008
| Tidal Bay | 149 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kruguyrova | 142 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Noland | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Thyne Again | 130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MahoganyBlaze | 136 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MoonOverMiami | 133 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Scotsirish | 130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ringtheboss | 114 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Marodima | 116 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Orpen Wide | 130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Leslingtaylor | 133 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Clopf | 139 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premiership French Accordion 2007
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006
|
So the best hurdlers (on last seasons figures) in the field in the last 5 years had finished 1211F
Looking through those statistics aswell there are very few horses that make it to the Arkle that have run on the flat. Only 8 runners have made it to the field in the last 5 years that have run on the flat in England, though a few more have that have run on the flat in France/Germany (of note Kalahari King and Osana). For the Arkle you definitely want a horse than is jumps bred rather than flat bred.
Also we must note that 5 year olds no longer get the 5lb weight allowance that they did a few years back.
So if we took the best hurdler who had never run on the flat in the last 5 renwals, and then adjusted it for the fact 5 year olds don't get an allowance any more (eg move 5 year olds 5 lengths back), we would have got:
2010 - Sizing Europe - WON
2009 - Forpadydeplaster - WON
2008 - Tidal Bay - WON
2007 - My Way De Solzen - WON
2006 - Accordion Etoile - Fell when going well. Second highest rated was Monet's Garden - WON (finished a length behind VPU but he was getting a 5lb allowance that 5yos don't get now).
Below are also the different results for the different age groups (when adjusted for the 5yo allowance)
5 year olds: 4 placed horses (2nd or 3rd) 0 winners
6 year olds: 3 placed horses 2 winners
7 year olds: 8 placed horses 5 winners
8 year olds: 5 placed horses 3 winners
The two six year old "winners" were Azertyuiop who was a country mile clear of his field on hurdle form and Kicking King who was up there on hurdle form. However this year there are no 6 year olds who are up there on hurdling form, so i will be concentrating on those who will be 7 or 8 when the race is run.
Below are the most interesting horses in the Betfair market at the moment with their best RPR they achieved over hurdles last season:
Then applying; 1. Never run on the flat 2.Be a 7 or 8 year old when the race is run we get a shortlist of
Micheal Flips and Bellvano i doubt would be good enough, which would leave us with six - Muirhead, Medermit, Quewetwo, Get Me out of Here, Finians Rainbow and Captain Chris.
Also it seems that you need a horse that gets further than 2 miles - with Tidal Bay, Forpadydeplaster, My Way De Solzen and Monet's Garden all being grade 1 class over 2m4f+ over hurdles. Sizing Europe had not been tried over that far - but always seemed he'd get that far (being stepped upto 2m6f on seasonal debut this season apparently) - and then had also won over 20f already over fences this time last season.
Of the shortlist Medermit, Quewetwo, Captain Chris and Get me out of here do not have form over 20f+ however it would not be a big suprise if they didn't get them in time - especially the giant Quewetwo who looks tailor made for chasing.
Finian's Rainbow just missed out on being a selection - as he still looked a bit immature last year and he seemed to just fall below top class. However he didn't quite see out 2m5f so the drop to 2 miles on a stiff track and quick pace could bring out improvement. Last year he was described as the 'next Denman' by Adrian Maguire so he is definitely one to keep an eye on this winter.
Selection:
Muirhead comes out top on hurdle rating by a mile of those who have form over further than 2 miles and so is an obvious selection at this stage.
He seemed to lose his way last season, but came right back to his best when he came second in the Aintree hurdle over 2m4f thus showing he can get further than 2 miles. It was here where he ran his best RPR of the season- 161.
The excuse for him put forward by trainer Noel Meade was the better ground. His form on good or better is 2 wins, a second in the Aintree hurdle before disappointing slightly over 16f at Punchestown where he was outpaced. His two runs on good to soft were both at the festival. The first one he disappointed when co favourite for the Supreme Novices - but the ground that day was much slower than the official description. Time based it was soft at best - with the chase course on time figures near heavy that day. Second time was the 2009 champion hurdle - once again times suggested it was soft - but he ran a very good race to finish 5th of 23 only beaten 5l by Punjabi. Also you wouldn't want to second guess the ground at this stage, you'd have to think it's more likely to be good to soft or quicker, than soft or worse. If he gets his ground it would not be hard to see him running a big race. Also in double figure fields (which again you'd think he'd get in the Arkle) he has 3 wins to his name (incl. a grade 1) his 2 cheltenham runs, and then his performance at Punchestown this year to his name.
Of course the key criteria for an Arkle winner is that he takes to fences. There are two positives for this fellow doing so - Trainer Noel Meade has already stated he will go chasing this season after 'schooling well' last season. Also his sire Flemensfirth is much more known for his Chasers than his hurdlers. Looking at his progency i'm trying hard to find one that didn't prove to be at least a good a chaser as a hurdler. Below are his best progency - with their best hurdle RPR and then chase RPR.
Imperial Commander - 135 to 182 (Gold Cup Winner)
Tidal Bay - 166 to 169 (Arkle Winner)
Joe Lively - 125 to 166 (Grade 1 winning novice chaser)
Pandorama - 157 to 157 so far (Grade 1 winning novice chaser)
Kings John Castle - 130 to 155
Kicks for free - 150 to 150
The Midnight Club - 150 to 150
Equus Maximus - 129 to 145
Pomneoath - 131 to 142
Also looking at this it seems his progency take very well to cheltenham - which in fact to be fair Muirhead has shown already with his 5th in a champion hurdle.
Looking at the potential novice chasers this season in Ireland, competition seems to be thin on the ground. Noble prince and Sweeps Hill are potential challengers in the grade 1s over the winter but they were a notch below him over hurdles. Also both are by Montjeu who is yet to shine with any progency over fences, and is also yet to sire a winner at Cheltenham i believe. The obvious challengers are Mikael D'Hagunet, Arvik Legionnaire and Blackstair Mountain. However all of these are owned by the same owner so he is doubtful to face more than one at a time this winter. The former has it to prove after coming back from injury, the later two also need better ground to be at their best. It has also been suggested BSM will stay over hurdles this winter. The hope is Muirhead can win a few grade 1s in Ireland over the winter as he's shown he can cope with softer ground (with his price contracting for a trade out opportunity) and then improve even more for better ground in the spring,
If he can run his hurdle RPR or better in the Arkle next year he'd be very hard to beat and so at the prices of 40-1 on betfair, he seems the obvious bet. My long time dangers would be Captain Chris and Finian's Rainbow. The latter has already been discussed, and the former has looked very good and is so far undefeated. He reminds me of Sizing Europe as he has already been described as making the shape of a chaser over hurdles and he looks sure to take high rank over the bigger obstacles this winter.
5 year olds: 4 placed horses (2nd or 3rd) 0 winners
6 year olds: 3 placed horses 2 winners
7 year olds: 8 placed horses 5 winners
8 year olds: 5 placed horses 3 winners
The two six year old "winners" were Azertyuiop who was a country mile clear of his field on hurdle form and Kicking King who was up there on hurdle form. However this year there are no 6 year olds who are up there on hurdling form, so i will be concentrating on those who will be 7 or 8 when the race is run.
Below are the most interesting horses in the Betfair market at the moment with their best RPR they achieved over hurdles last season:
| Celestial Halo | 169 |
| Muirhead | 161 |
| Medermit | 160 |
| Punjabi | 160 |
| Quewetwo | 155 |
| Reve De Sivola | 155 |
| RonaldoDesMottes | 152 |
| Get Me out ofHere | 151 |
| Spirit River | 150 |
| Duke of Lucca | 148 |
| Finians Rainbow | 148 |
| Mamlook | 148 |
| Micheal Flips | 148 |
| Captain Chris | 147 |
| James De Vassey | 147 |
| ArvikaLigeonniere | 146 |
| Bellvano | 145 |
| Sang Bleu | 130 |
Then applying; 1. Never run on the flat 2.Be a 7 or 8 year old when the race is run we get a shortlist of
| Muirhead | 161 |
| Medermit | 160 |
| Quewetwo | 155 |
| GetMeoutofHere | 151 |
| FiniansRainbow | 148 |
| Micheal Flips | 148 |
| Captain Chris | 147 |
| Bellvano | 145 |
Micheal Flips and Bellvano i doubt would be good enough, which would leave us with six - Muirhead, Medermit, Quewetwo, Get Me out of Here, Finians Rainbow and Captain Chris.
Also it seems that you need a horse that gets further than 2 miles - with Tidal Bay, Forpadydeplaster, My Way De Solzen and Monet's Garden all being grade 1 class over 2m4f+ over hurdles. Sizing Europe had not been tried over that far - but always seemed he'd get that far (being stepped upto 2m6f on seasonal debut this season apparently) - and then had also won over 20f already over fences this time last season.
Of the shortlist Medermit, Quewetwo, Captain Chris and Get me out of here do not have form over 20f+ however it would not be a big suprise if they didn't get them in time - especially the giant Quewetwo who looks tailor made for chasing.
Finian's Rainbow just missed out on being a selection - as he still looked a bit immature last year and he seemed to just fall below top class. However he didn't quite see out 2m5f so the drop to 2 miles on a stiff track and quick pace could bring out improvement. Last year he was described as the 'next Denman' by Adrian Maguire so he is definitely one to keep an eye on this winter.
Selection:
 |
| Muirhead |
Muirhead comes out top on hurdle rating by a mile of those who have form over further than 2 miles and so is an obvious selection at this stage.
He seemed to lose his way last season, but came right back to his best when he came second in the Aintree hurdle over 2m4f thus showing he can get further than 2 miles. It was here where he ran his best RPR of the season- 161.
The excuse for him put forward by trainer Noel Meade was the better ground. His form on good or better is 2 wins, a second in the Aintree hurdle before disappointing slightly over 16f at Punchestown where he was outpaced. His two runs on good to soft were both at the festival. The first one he disappointed when co favourite for the Supreme Novices - but the ground that day was much slower than the official description. Time based it was soft at best - with the chase course on time figures near heavy that day. Second time was the 2009 champion hurdle - once again times suggested it was soft - but he ran a very good race to finish 5th of 23 only beaten 5l by Punjabi. Also you wouldn't want to second guess the ground at this stage, you'd have to think it's more likely to be good to soft or quicker, than soft or worse. If he gets his ground it would not be hard to see him running a big race. Also in double figure fields (which again you'd think he'd get in the Arkle) he has 3 wins to his name (incl. a grade 1) his 2 cheltenham runs, and then his performance at Punchestown this year to his name.
Of course the key criteria for an Arkle winner is that he takes to fences. There are two positives for this fellow doing so - Trainer Noel Meade has already stated he will go chasing this season after 'schooling well' last season. Also his sire Flemensfirth is much more known for his Chasers than his hurdlers. Looking at his progency i'm trying hard to find one that didn't prove to be at least a good a chaser as a hurdler. Below are his best progency - with their best hurdle RPR and then chase RPR.
Imperial Commander - 135 to 182 (Gold Cup Winner)
Tidal Bay - 166 to 169 (Arkle Winner)
Joe Lively - 125 to 166 (Grade 1 winning novice chaser)
Pandorama - 157 to 157 so far (Grade 1 winning novice chaser)
Kings John Castle - 130 to 155
Kicks for free - 150 to 150
The Midnight Club - 150 to 150
Equus Maximus - 129 to 145
Pomneoath - 131 to 142
Also looking at this it seems his progency take very well to cheltenham - which in fact to be fair Muirhead has shown already with his 5th in a champion hurdle.
Looking at the potential novice chasers this season in Ireland, competition seems to be thin on the ground. Noble prince and Sweeps Hill are potential challengers in the grade 1s over the winter but they were a notch below him over hurdles. Also both are by Montjeu who is yet to shine with any progency over fences, and is also yet to sire a winner at Cheltenham i believe. The obvious challengers are Mikael D'Hagunet, Arvik Legionnaire and Blackstair Mountain. However all of these are owned by the same owner so he is doubtful to face more than one at a time this winter. The former has it to prove after coming back from injury, the later two also need better ground to be at their best. It has also been suggested BSM will stay over hurdles this winter. The hope is Muirhead can win a few grade 1s in Ireland over the winter as he's shown he can cope with softer ground (with his price contracting for a trade out opportunity) and then improve even more for better ground in the spring,
If he can run his hurdle RPR or better in the Arkle next year he'd be very hard to beat and so at the prices of 40-1 on betfair, he seems the obvious bet. My long time dangers would be Captain Chris and Finian's Rainbow. The latter has already been discussed, and the former has looked very good and is so far undefeated. He reminds me of Sizing Europe as he has already been described as making the shape of a chaser over hurdles and he looks sure to take high rank over the bigger obstacles this winter.
