Below are my thoughts on the runner with the scores they achieved on my trends. Also looking back I made a slight typo, one of the points reads 'Max 2 Chase Wins' should be 'Max 2 handicap Chase Wins'
1. Silver By Nature - 15/20
Has a very good profile for the race apart from his weight. Can let him off for his run first time out this season, as he usually comes on nicely for his first start and the ground would have been to far too quick for him. However, he is one of the horses in the field who conditions will suit down to the ground and is sure to run a big race. His 18lb higher mark will no doubt anchor him and place claims are probably the best that he can hope for. Also it should be noted Lucinda Russell hasn't had a winner since November.
2. Dream Alliance - 16/20
Winner of this last year off a 9lb higher mark. However, Cheek pieces haven't shown the same effect since and he has shown nothing. He can't be put up as bet for me as he hasn't finished 7 of his last 9 starts (6/7 over fences) and his weight of 11st7 is going to make it a lot hard than the 10st 8 of last season.
3. Synchronised - 16/ 20
See top of thread for my in detail thoughts on him. 9/2 is no value now in a 20 runner handicap off 150.
4. Watamu Bay - 10/20
See above aswell - very tough race for such an inexperienced novice off that kind of weight.
5. Exmoor Ranger - 15/20
Interesting one. No idea what to make of the ground for him. His best wins over both hurdles and fences have been on soft ground - however, trainer has always said he's better on a quicker surface. Extra distance is a question mark and the fact his form in handicaps is F7712B443 (win off 135 with a 7lb claimer aswell in a class 3) it's hard to see where the improvements going to come to help him win this off 145.
6. Eric's Charm - 13/20
Admirable sort who's done me favours in the past - but his best days look far behind him.
7. Arbor Supreme - 17/20
One of my main fancies back in December at the original 5 day entries. Very hard to get right - but conditions should suit and can run a nice weight with only 10st10 on his back taking into account the claim. Further details on original posting.
8. Dance Island - 15/20
Should love the ground being by Turtle Island, however, apart from his win against Dream Alliance over hurdles his form on soft or worse is 4846543. His one win over hurdles was in a handicap of 105, before struggling when he hit the 110s. He's handicapped on one run in a slow run end of season novice chase, and for that reason I would pass on him at the prices.
9. Ballyfoy - 12/20
Outclassed for me. Seems happy enough in Class 3s. But has always struggled when stepped up in class. Won two Lingfield heavy ground races off top weights (129 and 124), but this is a whole different league off 136. To win an average renewal he'd have to be a mid to high 140s horse off this kind of mark, and looking through his form there is absolutely nothing that would point to that.
10. Maktu - 14/20
Seemed very progressive at the end of last season having started to look held of marks in the 120s. However, took a big step up on that last 2 runs both at Haydock. First he won a novice chase on heavy, before first time out chasing home the progressive King Fontaine last time. Conditions should suit off this heavy weight and has shown he goes very well at the course. Trainer won this a while back with Supreme Glory and is sure to have targetted this one at it a while back. Sure to go close but perhaps better value lies elsewhere.
11. Ballyfitz - 17/20
Not much to add from above. Running on 10st 4 he has to run a massive race if his jumping is any good. Form of last run has been franked by Peveril as well as Barafundle since and at a track/on ground he loves he has to go close of his kind of mark. Interestingly he's got first time cheek pieces on which will hopefully help him concentrate on his jumping.
12. I'moncloudnine - 12/20
Another one who looks well held off his handicap mark of 133, and it's hard to see where the improvement would come to make him a 145+ horse. Trip would also be a big worry for me. Form in class 3 or below chases 131141212, above 2P84U.
13. Giles Cross - 12/20
Bit hit and miss - form all in small field and has struggled in bigger fields. Was out on his legs in the Midlands Grand National last year so not 100% marathon trip will suit. Also showed absolutely nothing first time out this year.
14. Royal Rosa - 15/20
Another admirable sort but this looks a bit beyond him. His form in handicaps not over the national fences is 53PP563P54. He's been put up 7lbs for his last run and that for me should see him struggle.
15. Magic Sky - 8/20
Trips got to be a worry for him aswell having been a 2/2.5 miler his whole life. Getting on now, doesn't seem well handicapped, bottom of stats table - readily passed over.
16. Bench Warrant - 9/20
Don't rate his form that much. The way he ran last time would suggest trip is a massive question mark. Pass
17. Flight Leader - 11/20
Not the horse he once was. Will relish soft ground, but having shown nothing this year it's hard to see him playing a part.
18. Theatre Dance - 8/20
No.
19. Dashing George - 13/20
Has a similar chance to Theatre Dance, none.
20. Old Benny - 14/20
If he returned to the form of two seasons ago he would play a part. Hard to see him doing that though, and pulled up in this last year when fancied.
Result
1. Ballyfitz
2. Arbor Supreme
3. Maktu
4. Silver By Nature
Bets
2pt E/W Ballyfitz 20/1
1pt Win Arbor Supreme 16/1
