Novellen Lad is available at 40/1 with Stan James this evening which seems more than fair. Already trading a bit below 33s on BF at the moment and has been backed into as low as 20/1 with Paddy Power.
Novellen Lad is a sibling to a lot of smart sprinters notably Ellens Lad and Ellens Academy. They achieved their best RPRs both at the age of 6 - obviously this is a very late maturing family so there is no reason Novellen Lad can't improve from last season.
He loves quick ground which he'll get tomorrow and importantly is said to be at his best fresh. First time out last year he won by 3l of a 3lb lower mark, and a recreation of that effort would seem him go very close here.
He then performed admirably in similar kind of handicaps as tomorrow off a mark of 93 when coming 4th and 5th at the Curragh and York respectively. Back off a 6lb lower mark and fresh he should run a nice race. The 40/1 looks way to big and will surely be closer the 25/1 all round tomorrow morning (Should be about a 16-20/1 shot in my book)
Top of my potential dangers were Swilly Ferry, Our Jonathon, Silaah and Fireback. With slight preference for the last two.
1pt E/W Novellen Lad 40/1
Saturday 30 April 2011
Thursday 14 April 2011
15/4/2011
Going to try and update this time from time now. Last couple of months I've been a bit preoccupied with Cheltenham and now I have my exams going. However, every now and then I'll be looking at the priced up races the night before to keep me sane from revision. Found an interesting one tomorrow at an alright price.
Newbury 4.55 - Striking Spirit
Priced up at 13/2 with Racing Post that was the price I was expecting, so it came as a great shock to me that up to 10/1 is available at the moment of writing. In a field with questions marking lurking over most of the field, whether it be ground, trip or fitness - he is one of the most consistent of the 13 that are set to go to post.
. He's gone well fresh before - Won first time out in 2009, beaten a head in 2010
. He loves quick ground - All 3 wins on good to firm
. Trip wise - adaptable, slight suspicion he's better over 6f, but ran 2 good races over the trip last year when runner up on both occasions.
. Dandy/Adrian Nicholls have started the season in form - in the last fortnight the two of them have already combined 5 winners (12/1, 8/1, 13/2, 18/1, 7/1) from 21 runners.
. Also you'd imagine Adrian Nicholls could have ridden the shorter price stablemate Courageous
. Looks OK handicapped in race full of exposed horses in the main. Placed off a 3lb lower mark in the Wokingham last year - and would have won comfortably but for the chucked in Laddies Poker Two
2pt E/W Striking Spirit 10/1 - Bet 365 BOG
****** Update 10am Friday*********
Nice to see I was somewhat right about Striking Spirit with him now being top price 8/1 but as low as 13/2.
Got another that catches my eye
Ayr 2.50 - Drop Anchor
In a very open race Drop Anchor looks the play at 25/1. His form is indeed very patchy, in fact very patchy is being very generous to the horse. He has been pretty hopeless in all but one start. But this came over conditions similar to todays, 3 miles on good ground. For that run he was given an RPR of 114, and there seems no reason doubt that with solid yardsticks in behind. He gets the chance to run off 106 today and with a 7lb claimer on his back he'll only be carrying 9st 9. After his win last time his trainer commented 'he needs good ground' so his last run is easily forgiven. also he mentioned how the horse still ran very green. It is hoped with a winter off on his back he will return a more professional horse and know that his job is actually to travel and then go on and win. Trained in Ireland his trainer has had 7/1 and 12/1 winners from his 15 runners over here in the last 5 years, so I'd imagine a bold show is expected
1pt E/W Drop Anchor 22/1 - VC BOG
Newbury 4.55 - Striking Spirit
Priced up at 13/2 with Racing Post that was the price I was expecting, so it came as a great shock to me that up to 10/1 is available at the moment of writing. In a field with questions marking lurking over most of the field, whether it be ground, trip or fitness - he is one of the most consistent of the 13 that are set to go to post.
. He's gone well fresh before - Won first time out in 2009, beaten a head in 2010
. He loves quick ground - All 3 wins on good to firm
. Trip wise - adaptable, slight suspicion he's better over 6f, but ran 2 good races over the trip last year when runner up on both occasions.
. Dandy/Adrian Nicholls have started the season in form - in the last fortnight the two of them have already combined 5 winners (12/1, 8/1, 13/2, 18/1, 7/1) from 21 runners.
. Also you'd imagine Adrian Nicholls could have ridden the shorter price stablemate Courageous
. Looks OK handicapped in race full of exposed horses in the main. Placed off a 3lb lower mark in the Wokingham last year - and would have won comfortably but for the chucked in Laddies Poker Two
2pt E/W Striking Spirit 10/1 - Bet 365 BOG
****** Update 10am Friday*********
Nice to see I was somewhat right about Striking Spirit with him now being top price 8/1 but as low as 13/2.
Got another that catches my eye
Ayr 2.50 - Drop Anchor
In a very open race Drop Anchor looks the play at 25/1. His form is indeed very patchy, in fact very patchy is being very generous to the horse. He has been pretty hopeless in all but one start. But this came over conditions similar to todays, 3 miles on good ground. For that run he was given an RPR of 114, and there seems no reason doubt that with solid yardsticks in behind. He gets the chance to run off 106 today and with a 7lb claimer on his back he'll only be carrying 9st 9. After his win last time his trainer commented 'he needs good ground' so his last run is easily forgiven. also he mentioned how the horse still ran very green. It is hoped with a winter off on his back he will return a more professional horse and know that his job is actually to travel and then go on and win. Trained in Ireland his trainer has had 7/1 and 12/1 winners from his 15 runners over here in the last 5 years, so I'd imagine a bold show is expected
1pt E/W Drop Anchor 22/1 - VC BOG
Results 14/4/2011
Adding up the results from the last couple of days, the current totals from the blog are.
Profit: 47.81 pts
Bet: 55pts
ROI: 87%
Profit: 47.81 pts
Bet: 55pts
ROI: 87%
Tuesday 12 April 2011
It was good to see Kay Gee Be get the job done yesterday and it was just a shame that Stevie Gee couldn't hold on in the opener. Off to Cheltenham tomorrow so once again I've had a look at the handicaps and below I'll note down a few of those that look interesting.
3.20
Kauto Relko
Although Kauto Relko hasn't so far reached the same dizzy heights as his half brother Kauto Star nor his full brother Kauto Stone, there is still more than enough evidence suggesting that he is more capable than his current handicap mark of 127. Having been largely disappointing in Ireland he joined the Rachel Hobbs yard at the beginning of the season. In his first three runs he did not show all that much but since his mid season break he has put in two improved efforts. I believe that he had treatment for his back in the interim which was something that his connections thought was affecting him badly.
First time back he looked liked he was going to win before possibly blowing up. Still he was raised 5lbs for that effort meaning that he creeped into the Martin Pipe race at the festival. That day he travelled well into the race before being badly hampered by a faller four out. In the end he was beaten 16l though the drastic action that was needed to avoid the horse that fell in front of him must have cost him at least half the ground he was beaten.
Back over the same C+D distance tomorrow in a much weaker affair he must close and the 14/1 available is simply to big. Peter Carberry can claim his full 7lbs in this race, so he'll only be running off 9st 13lbs. The rest of the field don't look up to usual Cheltenham quality and it's hard to see Kauto Relko not being involved coming to the last without any mishaps. Like his siblings he seems adaptable to ground so if any rain falls it shouldn't bother him at all.
1pt E/W 14/1 BOG
Rest of Card
I'd give Lexicon Lad a positive write up in the novice handicap hurdle. He should appreciate the step up in trip and I always respect the Brennan/George combo in novice handicaps. He's been running against some nice sorts in the bumpers/hurdles and I'd imagine connections would be disappointed if his can't win of this mark at some point in his career, whether tomorrow is that day though, I don't know.
3.20
Kauto Relko
Although Kauto Relko hasn't so far reached the same dizzy heights as his half brother Kauto Star nor his full brother Kauto Stone, there is still more than enough evidence suggesting that he is more capable than his current handicap mark of 127. Having been largely disappointing in Ireland he joined the Rachel Hobbs yard at the beginning of the season. In his first three runs he did not show all that much but since his mid season break he has put in two improved efforts. I believe that he had treatment for his back in the interim which was something that his connections thought was affecting him badly.
First time back he looked liked he was going to win before possibly blowing up. Still he was raised 5lbs for that effort meaning that he creeped into the Martin Pipe race at the festival. That day he travelled well into the race before being badly hampered by a faller four out. In the end he was beaten 16l though the drastic action that was needed to avoid the horse that fell in front of him must have cost him at least half the ground he was beaten.
Back over the same C+D distance tomorrow in a much weaker affair he must close and the 14/1 available is simply to big. Peter Carberry can claim his full 7lbs in this race, so he'll only be running off 9st 13lbs. The rest of the field don't look up to usual Cheltenham quality and it's hard to see Kauto Relko not being involved coming to the last without any mishaps. Like his siblings he seems adaptable to ground so if any rain falls it shouldn't bother him at all.
1pt E/W 14/1 BOG
Rest of Card
I'd give Lexicon Lad a positive write up in the novice handicap hurdle. He should appreciate the step up in trip and I always respect the Brennan/George combo in novice handicaps. He's been running against some nice sorts in the bumpers/hurdles and I'd imagine connections would be disappointed if his can't win of this mark at some point in his career, whether tomorrow is that day though, I don't know.
Sunday 10 April 2011
Windsor 11/4
*****UPDATE - 6.30pm Sunday Night*****
***********************************
Off to Windsor tomorrow for my 21st birthday. Even got the last race named in my honour! What a day.
Thought I should probably have a proper look at the card, so I'll be noting down some of my thoughts on here.
5.00
Fawley Green
17 raced maiden but his time is going to come at some point. In the context of this race his debut as a 2yo was very good leading very useful sorts Arcano, Showcasing and Party Doctor until a furlong out before weakening. For the first half of his career he was a front runner until midway through last season his connections decided to hold him up. His time looked like it had finally come at Lingfield in July 2010 as he came there swinging before finding nil under Richard Hughes over 7f. A few runs later connections reached for headgear and they were rewarded with two decent placed efforts off marks of 72 and 73. Both times also he had to make his effort on the outside at Lingfield which would not have been ideal.
His comeback this year was poor but that was not surprising considering he didn't have his cheekpieces on and raced wide the whole way. As a consequence he has been dropped 4lbs to 70 and also tomorrow he has a 3lb claimer on so he runs effectively off a mark of 67 some 5 and 6lbs below his two placed efforts with headgear on last year. Back at straight course he won't have to swing wide around the home turn and hopefully should be able to get his finishing effort going a bit earlier. At likely big odds he could be worth a play. Hopefully Simple Rhythm will blast off to help his cause from coming behind.
Stevie Gee
At the peak of his career he was rated 100 and runs here off 69. Usually takes a couple of runs to get going so his two performances so far this year have actually been very credible for him (trip last time stretched him). Also he has not had any form of headgear which comes back on tomorrow. He wore headgear for the first time last year when he ran over 6f on good to firm ground (tomorrows conditions) and he won a better race by 1/2l off a 2lb higher mark. This is the lowest class race he has competed in since his 2yo days and with headgear back on surely if he is going to win any race this season this will be one of his biggest opportunities.
6.00
Kay Gee Bee
Down to a mark of 82 (lowest since 2007) in the lowest grade since then surely he has to have a massive chance in this though I'm not sure how big a price he will be. Key to him seems to be keeping him fresh his form off a more than 40 day lay off is 31112303 (if you take out his one run at 10f - didn't stay and never tried at the trip again) In fact his seasonal debuts have been;
2006 - 3rd in first ever run
2007 - Won in first time handicap off a mark of 80
2008 - 2nd in Class 3 off a mark of 93
2009 - 3rd in Heritage Handicap at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day off a mark of 90
2010 - 3rd in Class 2 handicap off a mark of 90 when 6/1f
He won off a 3lb higher mark at Ascot last year and back at his ideal conditions fresh he has to take all the beating. Ours is respected and I could have a small bet on him - back up to 8f in a big field he looks sure to out run his potentially large odds.
7.35
The days main feature and First Battalion is the one that takes the eye. From a decent family after running first time out over 7f racing post commented that he'd be one to improve massively next year when stepped up in trip. His most encouraging run then came at Leicester on his second run when he was 4th (second string) over 8f. He was a mover in the market and given plenty to do he stayed on well. The form has been franked since with the 1st and 2nd winning next time out. He then disappointed at Newmarket back down to 7f but significantly he was a drifter that day in the market. His siblings seem at home on all types of ground and stepped up by a massive 4f with a first time visor he looks sure to put in a much improved effort. Also Stoute has a cracking record in early season 3 year old handicaps and has a massive 27% strike rate at Windsor.
5.00 and 6.00 have been priced up. In the first Stevie Gee is 6/1 which I've taken. Fawley Green is only 6/1 and doesn't seem value at all at the price was hoping for 12s+. In the 7.00 Kay Gee Bee is available at 15/2 this price is way to big also (was expecting 4/1f and hoping for 11/2+).
1.5pt E/W Stevie Gee 6/1
1.5pt E/W Kay Gee Bee 15/2
1pt E/W Double
***********************************
Off to Windsor tomorrow for my 21st birthday. Even got the last race named in my honour! What a day.
Thought I should probably have a proper look at the card, so I'll be noting down some of my thoughts on here.
5.00
Fawley Green
17 raced maiden but his time is going to come at some point. In the context of this race his debut as a 2yo was very good leading very useful sorts Arcano, Showcasing and Party Doctor until a furlong out before weakening. For the first half of his career he was a front runner until midway through last season his connections decided to hold him up. His time looked like it had finally come at Lingfield in July 2010 as he came there swinging before finding nil under Richard Hughes over 7f. A few runs later connections reached for headgear and they were rewarded with two decent placed efforts off marks of 72 and 73. Both times also he had to make his effort on the outside at Lingfield which would not have been ideal.
His comeback this year was poor but that was not surprising considering he didn't have his cheekpieces on and raced wide the whole way. As a consequence he has been dropped 4lbs to 70 and also tomorrow he has a 3lb claimer on so he runs effectively off a mark of 67 some 5 and 6lbs below his two placed efforts with headgear on last year. Back at straight course he won't have to swing wide around the home turn and hopefully should be able to get his finishing effort going a bit earlier. At likely big odds he could be worth a play. Hopefully Simple Rhythm will blast off to help his cause from coming behind.
Stevie Gee
At the peak of his career he was rated 100 and runs here off 69. Usually takes a couple of runs to get going so his two performances so far this year have actually been very credible for him (trip last time stretched him). Also he has not had any form of headgear which comes back on tomorrow. He wore headgear for the first time last year when he ran over 6f on good to firm ground (tomorrows conditions) and he won a better race by 1/2l off a 2lb higher mark. This is the lowest class race he has competed in since his 2yo days and with headgear back on surely if he is going to win any race this season this will be one of his biggest opportunities.
6.00
Kay Gee Bee
Down to a mark of 82 (lowest since 2007) in the lowest grade since then surely he has to have a massive chance in this though I'm not sure how big a price he will be. Key to him seems to be keeping him fresh his form off a more than 40 day lay off is 31112303 (if you take out his one run at 10f - didn't stay and never tried at the trip again) In fact his seasonal debuts have been;
2006 - 3rd in first ever run
2007 - Won in first time handicap off a mark of 80
2008 - 2nd in Class 3 off a mark of 93
2009 - 3rd in Heritage Handicap at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day off a mark of 90
2010 - 3rd in Class 2 handicap off a mark of 90 when 6/1f
He won off a 3lb higher mark at Ascot last year and back at his ideal conditions fresh he has to take all the beating. Ours is respected and I could have a small bet on him - back up to 8f in a big field he looks sure to out run his potentially large odds.
7.35
The days main feature and First Battalion is the one that takes the eye. From a decent family after running first time out over 7f racing post commented that he'd be one to improve massively next year when stepped up in trip. His most encouraging run then came at Leicester on his second run when he was 4th (second string) over 8f. He was a mover in the market and given plenty to do he stayed on well. The form has been franked since with the 1st and 2nd winning next time out. He then disappointed at Newmarket back down to 7f but significantly he was a drifter that day in the market. His siblings seem at home on all types of ground and stepped up by a massive 4f with a first time visor he looks sure to put in a much improved effort. Also Stoute has a cracking record in early season 3 year old handicaps and has a massive 27% strike rate at Windsor.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)