5.00 and 6.00 have been priced up. In the first Stevie Gee is 6/1 which I've taken. Fawley Green is only 6/1 and doesn't seem value at all at the price was hoping for 12s+. In the 7.00 Kay Gee Bee is available at 15/2 this price is way to big also (was expecting 4/1f and hoping for 11/2+).
1.5pt E/W Stevie Gee 6/1
1.5pt E/W Kay Gee Bee 15/2
1pt E/W Double
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Off to Windsor tomorrow for my 21st birthday. Even got the last race named in my honour! What a day.
Thought I should probably have a proper look at the card, so I'll be noting down some of my thoughts on here.
5.00
Fawley Green
17 raced maiden but his time is going to come at some point. In the context of this race his debut as a 2yo was very good leading very useful sorts Arcano, Showcasing and Party Doctor until a furlong out before weakening. For the first half of his career he was a front runner until midway through last season his connections decided to hold him up. His time looked like it had finally come at Lingfield in July 2010 as he came there swinging before finding nil under Richard Hughes over 7f. A few runs later connections reached for headgear and they were rewarded with two decent placed efforts off marks of 72 and 73. Both times also he had to make his effort on the outside at Lingfield which would not have been ideal.
His comeback this year was poor but that was not surprising considering he didn't have his cheekpieces on and raced wide the whole way. As a consequence he has been dropped 4lbs to 70 and also tomorrow he has a 3lb claimer on so he runs effectively off a mark of 67 some 5 and 6lbs below his two placed efforts with headgear on last year. Back at straight course he won't have to swing wide around the home turn and hopefully should be able to get his finishing effort going a bit earlier. At likely big odds he could be worth a play. Hopefully Simple Rhythm will blast off to help his cause from coming behind.
Stevie Gee
At the peak of his career he was rated 100 and runs here off 69. Usually takes a couple of runs to get going so his two performances so far this year have actually been very credible for him (trip last time stretched him). Also he has not had any form of headgear which comes back on tomorrow. He wore headgear for the first time last year when he ran over 6f on good to firm ground (tomorrows conditions) and he won a better race by 1/2l off a 2lb higher mark. This is the lowest class race he has competed in since his 2yo days and with headgear back on surely if he is going to win any race this season this will be one of his biggest opportunities.
6.00
Kay Gee Bee
Down to a mark of 82 (lowest since 2007) in the lowest grade since then surely he has to have a massive chance in this though I'm not sure how big a price he will be. Key to him seems to be keeping him fresh his form off a more than 40 day lay off is 31112303 (if you take out his one run at 10f - didn't stay and never tried at the trip again) In fact his seasonal debuts have been;
2006 - 3rd in first ever run
2007 - Won in first time handicap off a mark of 80
2008 - 2nd in Class 3 off a mark of 93
2009 - 3rd in Heritage Handicap at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day off a mark of 90
2010 - 3rd in Class 2 handicap off a mark of 90 when 6/1f
He won off a 3lb higher mark at Ascot last year and back at his ideal conditions fresh he has to take all the beating. Ours is respected and I could have a small bet on him - back up to 8f in a big field he looks sure to out run his potentially large odds.
7.35
The days main feature and First Battalion is the one that takes the eye. From a decent family after running first time out over 7f racing post commented that he'd be one to improve massively next year when stepped up in trip. His most encouraging run then came at Leicester on his second run when he was 4th (second string) over 8f. He was a mover in the market and given plenty to do he stayed on well. The form has been franked since with the 1st and 2nd winning next time out. He then disappointed at Newmarket back down to 7f but significantly he was a drifter that day in the market. His siblings seem at home on all types of ground and stepped up by a massive 4f with a first time visor he looks sure to put in a much improved effort. Also Stoute has a cracking record in early season 3 year old handicaps and has a massive 27% strike rate at Windsor.
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