Saturday 30 October 2010

30/10/2010 - Wetherby and Ascot

1.50 Ascot - Divy 0.5pt EW 50-1 (BOG) Stan James, Phoenix Flight 1pt Win 16-1 (BOG) Stan James

The curtain raiser at Ascot looks a competitive event but at the prices both Divy and Phoenix Flight must be of interest.

Divy on all hurdling form doesn't look overly well handicapped but on closer inspection of his overall profile is worth an interest at 50-1. He was a very high quality bumper horses 2 seasons ago. He only finished 1/4l behind Frascati Park (placed in four grade 2s over hurdles since) before bolting up by 19l on his next start. He then rounded off his season by winning comfortably with a penalty. Since then over hurdles he hasn't been great but there are 3 reasons to expect potentially massive improvement. During his 3 bumper runs such comments as 'he's a lovely big horse and very much one for the future' and a 'horse with an abundance of scope' were written, as was the fact that he was held in very high regard by his trainer. With another summer on his back it's hoped he's grown into his frame a bit more and is the finished article. Secondly, he has first time visor on so maybe they think he just hasn't been concentrating. Finally, this is the first time since his bumper days he's back on officially good ground. His full brother Divers is decent on quick ground, but has fallen apart with even the smallest mentioning of soft in the going description (much like Divy possibly last year) so improvement should be bought around via the quicker ground.

Also Phoenix Flight looks well weighted off 113 being an 83 sort on the flat. He's had 3 runs over hurdles, falling first time out before two slightly more encouraging efforts. In the first of them he split Heron Bay and Russian George (now rated 123 and 129 respectively) making his mark of 113 look very nice. He then came 4th behind Comehomequietly - interestingly though he was odds on, so obviously much more was expected.  Also the fact he's a 2 miler on the flat, means that 2 miles at Worcester was probably too sharp, and this step up to 2m3f should suit.

4.50 Ascot -Panjo Bere 0.5pt EW 16-1 (BOG) - Victor Chandler


Panjo Bere absolutely adores the track with form figures of 3151. With 2/2 at the distance. Both times over further he weakened when going well around the 2 mile mark. One especially good performance was in the Amlin Chase behind Albertas Run last year, when he was going as well as anything apart from Albertas Run before weakening from 2nd to 5th in the short home straight. He then won off a 3lb lower mark to the useful Imsingtheblues back over 2 miles.  Also he's won 2/3 times on his first start of the season in Britain and last year was heavily gambled on in the Haldon Gold Cup so obviously much more was expected. He goes well for this claimer and off 11st 5 should go close. Oiseau De Nuit is a danger, but at the prices i'd much rather be on Panjo. Also Panjo Bere goes well on good ground with figures of 1215.

2.50 Wetherby - Tidal Bay 2pts Win 3-1 (BOG) - Will Hill


Comes out second at the weights by 2lbs to Duc De Regniere, however i think there has to be a bit of a doubt about that one getting a truely run 3m1f as well as Tidal Bay. Tidal Bay goes very well fresh and should appreciate the good ground. Of the rest you'd think the only one with enough class to challenge the big two would be Fair Along.

Friday 29 October 2010

29/10/2010 - Wetherby 3.20 Bet 365 Handicap Chase (Listed)





Mister McGoldrick - 2pts E/W @ 7/1 (BOG)


The evergreen Mister McGoldrick makes his seasonal reappearance and a chance should be taken on him to take the spoils at an attractive looking 7/1.


1. He goes incredibly well fresh


His record fresh since 2002 reads 11165153. However, also his last 2 seasonal reappearances are much better than the form figure suggests. Last time he came 3rd over an inadequate trip and on softer ground than ideal, yet still produced an RPR of 150 (joint best of that season). 2 years ago he was only beaten 5l in the Old Roan off a mark of 160 and ran an RPR of 154 (best of season).  Also his trainer has been quoted in her pre-season stable tour as saying he's "working very well" so a top run should hopefully be expected.


2. He loves the track


If ever a track belonged to a horse in the modern era of jump racing you'd be pushed not to give it to Mister McGoldrick and Wetherby. His form figures at the track are 114111111477.  With form not with good in the going description 41111141.


3. Quicker ground is key for him these days


Although he used to go on soft ground, it seems this day like many other horses (eg Yeats) as they get older prefer better ground. Since April 2007 he's run 14 times on ground with 'good' in the description short of 3 miles over fences, and everytime he's recorded an RPR of at least 142. With the majority of them over 148.


4. He seems well handicapped


He runs off 139 today, which is his lowest mark since his novice days. Also he has a good 5lb claimer on in the shape of Shane Byrne who he gets on really well with, so effectively he's running off 134. Even last season he showed he can run to a good mark when he gets conditions to suit like today. For example he was only beaten 5l in the Festival plate off an 8lb higher mark (taking into account the claimer). That's a very strong bit of form with the only horse to finish above him to come out is From Dawn to Dusk, who won a big handicap next time out and is now rated 13lbs higher. Also the 1st and 2nd are near the top of the market in the upcoming PaddyPower Gold Cup.


5. The Competition all have question marks next to them in some respect


Lease Lend - Has gone up 16lbs for his 3 wins last season and struggled when upped in class to a similar race last time. Also he has quicker ground to contened with. However, he hasn't looked back on the whole since hold up tactics were introduced and with a lot of pace in the race (Mr McG, Frankie Figg, Soulard) he is respected.

According to Pete - Not sure how good he'll be fresh - usually trainer has warmed him up on the flat where he usually gets well beaten first time out. Ground could also said to be quicker than ideal.

Soulard - First time out, competition up front, market very negative.

Frankie Figg - Hasn't shown that much over orthodox fences (usually seen over national ones) and his completion record over both isn't great. Even over plain fences his record reads F133F353. Competition up front as well today.

My Moment - Trip a big question mark, usually comes on for first run, hammered last 3 chase starts.

Star of Germany - Shown nothing for a while, trainer not in great form.

Qulinton - Probably the main danger, but better handicapped horses in the race. Should however be suited by drop in trip.

Neptune Equester - Up in the weights for form that hasn't worked out that well. Also has looked a stayer so the drop down in trip for his first run of the season looks like it won't suit.



With so many doubts about the competition you'd have to think Mr McGoldrick will definitely be there or thereabouts and so a chance should be taken on him at 7/1 with everything in his favour.

Result


3rd @ 7/1 - Return of +0.8 pts

Running total +1.3pts

Friday 15 October 2010

15th October 2010 - Cheltenham Showcase Meeting

The 2010-2011 Cheltenham season gets underway today with the showcase - although not of the same substance of many of the other Cheltenham meetings there are still plenty of talented individuals on show both today and tomorrow. Although I have no big fancies, below are a few longer priced horses (along with a shorter one!) who i will be taking a small chance with


5.05 - Lucky Luk - 0.5pt E-W @ 28-1 (BOG)

In a very open race, where any amount could win, this one seems massively overpriced to me. Although described as 'basically slow' by RP a course like Cheltenham suits him and usually in amateur races like this they go off a bit quick which can only help his chances.

All his best form has been shown on testing/undulating tracks, which of course Cheltenham is, so a chance is taken he can produce some of his best form here. At Towcester/Exeter (both testing/undulating tracks) over 3 miles or more his form reads 1131511. The 3rd wasn't even that bad a performance as the winner is now rated some 24lbs higher.

He's beaten some good horses in those runs as well - in his last run he beat River Indus - who through that horse has a better chance than Scots Dragoon (much shorter in betting), and also Sea Wall (holds Marblehead through him)

He'll love the quick ground and importantly he has always gone well after a break before, winning twice after a 6 month break off.

The one negative is his jockey, which is why stakes are being kept to a minimum, as as far as I'm aware it's his first ride over fences. However, of course he does have a 7lb claim to help putting this fellow off just 10st 7.

2.45 - Frontier Dancer - 1pt Win @ 12-5

Seems massively overpriced to me due to the fact

1. He's best in at the weights on his best hurdles form last season
2. He's got chase experience - Favourite/3rd favourite don't
3. He's race fit - As above

Keighley's also usually take a run to get fit and I wasn't a fan of the Nicholls horse last year, so at the prices he seems an obvious bet.

3.20 - Raslan - 1pt E-W @ 16/1 (BOG)
3.20 - Kings Forest - 0.5pt @ 15/2 (BOG)


In a race in which many won't be fully tuned up (Amber Brook, Buena Vista, Lough Derg) a chance can be taken on these two. Raslan is taken to run a big race and improve his record with both a tongue tie and visor on. Won very well when they were put on two starts back (should hold Battle Group in my opinion) and then came 2nd to a very unexposed sort in a good race last time. Hasn't run to well at the course before, but has come 3rd on one of the few times the conditions would have suited him.

A small chance is also taken on Kings Forest who ran a much better race than is at first obvious last time. However, I'm not totally sure he'll stay so only a small bet is advised. If he does, he'll go very close.

Others to note


. Calgary Bay would eat these if fit - but that's a big question mark. If not Midnight Chase could be the one to capitalise

. Last race seems very tough and I'd be opposing the favourite Astracad. I'd give a chance to the Nicholls one who has apparently been working with Escortmen, and also Higgys Boy. He was backed into 6/1 in a tougher race last time suggesting they think he's capable of this mark, and with the blinkers back on could run a big race.

Good luck.

RESULTS

Lucky Luk - 5th : - 1pt
Frontier Dancer - 2nd: -1pt
Raslan - 3rd: + 3pts
King's Forest - 8th : - 0.5pt

In others to note, Calgary Bay was blatantly unfit (came there down the hill looking a big danger and blew up) and as suggest Midnight Chase was the one that took advantage at 6/1. Organisiteur also ran a very nice to come 2nd at 7/1. Astracad proved me wrong and won the race at 9/4f, with Higgy's Boy disappointing. It must be noted, that the time of the race was favourable compared to the 4yo race the next day (won by the ultra impressive Clerk's Choice), and the top 3 should all be kept on the right side of in their next races. Organisiteur was outpaced and is interestingly entered over 2m4 this coming weekend.

Total: +0.5pt

2010 Cheltenham Festival Review - Day 4

JCB Triumph Hurdle


Soldatino and Barry Geraghty 
Winner - Soldatino

. As already highlighted by the Fred Winter, French breds have a cracking record in the juvenile winners at the festival. Soldatino was one of just four in the field, and was returned at the shortest of the four at 6/1.
. Had already won a good trial (The Adonis) well under a penalty
. Geraghty after that race said he must be a good horse as he quickened twice out of soft ground. Also he said they hadn't done much with him since he came to the yard, so he was bound to come on tons for the experience.


County Hurdle



Thousand Stars gives Katie Walsh has second winner of the week
Winner - Thousand Stars

. Had a very progressive profile having won two of his last three. He had come unstuck last time, although the RP in running comments didn't give any reason for positivity, there actual analysis said about him 'Another to note was Thousand Stars who looked to be travelling like a winner just behind the leaders before the second last, but he overjumped that flight and was soon in trouble'.
. Usually Irish Horses handicap marks are inflated when they come over to the festival, however, his was not, only being 1lb higher than his Irish mark.

Disappointment - Tito Bustillo

. To be honest he was a bit unlucky being badly hampered. However, before the race experience and his handicap mark were always going to be a worry. He was stepping up from novice company into a big field, and his handicap mark of 136 seemed harsh given the form he'd achieved so far.

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle


Berties Dream returns after springing a shock
Winner - Berties Dream

. Had good course form being 3rd behind Tell Massini at the November meeting. That day he was beaten 9l but he was giving Tell Massini 7lbs, leaving him theoretically 2lbs to find. In this race Tell Massini was 10/3f, yet Berties Dream was 33/1 - So it was obvious where the value lied.
. Had a lot of experience already with 14 runs over hurdles. Also he had already stepped out of the novice ranks last time and so this 19 runner field was perhaps going to be more to his liking than his inexperienced rivals
. He had achieved the 4th best RPR in the field (Behind Restless Harry (F), Shinrock Paddy (PU) and Tell Massini (PU)) and was within 3lbs of all of them. There prices were 8/1, 8/1 and 10/3f respectively, so once again it was obvious where the value lied.

Gold Cup


Imperial Commander goes clear at the last in the 2010 Gold Cup
Winner - Imperial Commander

. Tons of course form having won 4 chases already at the course
. Another horse like Berties Dream who represented value - He was only beaten a nose by Kauto Star in November yet he was 10x the price.
. Great record fresh - almost unbeaten

Foxhunters Chase


Sam Twiston-Davies rides Baby Run to Festival Glory


Winner - Baby Run

. Great course form - never unplaced at the course
. Had run the top RPR in the field that season
. Still relatively unexposed in the sphere with only 9 chase starts.


Martin Pipe Conditionals Handicap Hurdle


Pause and Clause lands the penultimate event at the 2010 Festival

Winner - Pause and Clause

. Like Buena Vista - He was running of the same mark that he had been the year before when going close. He was running in a different race yes, but it was over the same distance. He was 3rd beaten 2l off 137 in the Coral Cup in 2009, and was running here off 137 again. This was theoretically a small step down in class, also in 2009 he'd only had 3 hurdle starts, so there was plenty of reasons why he could improve on that run.
. He had run well this year in race that wouldn't have suited (2 x too far, 1 x chase) and looked to be coming to form.

Grand Annual


Pigeon Island and Paddy Brennan


Winner - Pigeon Island

. Came near the top of trends
. Good course form
, Light weight as the ground softened was always going to be useful
. Connections were in great form - having already put in a double on the day.

Failure - You're The Top

. All his form was RH (all 5 wins) going Left Handed 363F
. Inexperienced with only 3 chase starts, all in small fields

Tuesday 12 October 2010

2010 Cheltenham Festival Review - Day 3

Jewson Novice Handicap Chase


Copper Bleu jumps the last ahead of Othermix

Winner - Copper Bleu

. Was always thought to have scope to be a chaser
. Ran his best race over hurdles at the course in the Supreme last year
. Was running off a 4lbs lower mark than he would over hurdles, on hurdle ratings he was 2nd best at the weights - once again showing hurdling form is relevant to a degree over hurdles
. Had a tongue tie on the first time
. Step up in trip was sure to suit on breeding

Failure - Rivaliste

. Wasn't overally well handicapped on form - up 6lbs for a 2nd, and up 13lbs on a win
. By far the quickest ground he'd ever un on
. Only a 5 year old

Conclusions

. Look for first time aids, especially tongue ties
. Once again - hurdle form is relevant to a degree in novice chases


Pertemps Final


Buena Vista finally gets his deserved win at the festival
Winner - Buena Vista

. He was back to his favoured conditions - 1) Back on quicker ground 2) Headgear On - all his runs that season he'd either had the headgear off or the ground had been soft. Now back on good ground with blinkers on, he was always going to improve on this seasons form massively

. Was back to the same mark as last year 133 - that day he found one too good, Kayf Aramis, who was now running off a 20lb mark, yet he was allowed to run of the same mark. Another example was, Pause and Clause who won the Martin Pipe. He ran off the same mark as he won off, when a close 3rd in the Coral Cup (arguably a stronger race) over the same C+D one year earlier.

. Also he had a useful 3lb claimer on Hadden Frost - which means he was actually running off a 3lb lower mark than when he was runner up

Failure - Alfie Sherrin 

. Was said to always need time between his races

. Still very inexperienced for one his age with only 3 runs over hurdles and 4 runs in total over rules

. Had a massive 12lb hike in weights for last race

Conclusion

. Once again look for those who have form around their handicap mark - especially over the course and perhaps even more at the festival 

. Check for reapplication of aids


Ryanair Chase


Albertas Run clambers over the last
Winner - Albertas Run

. Great course form - 2 wins from 3 over fences, including a RSA win

. Would love the quick ground - form on good ground since going over obstacles was 112113231. Included in those defeats was a second to Kauto Star in the 2008 King George.

. From a handicapping perspective off level weights he was very much up there. 4 of the 13 runner field were above him but there were some possible reasons why you could disregard most of them. Deep Purple - Best on flat tracks according to trainer pre race and said earlier in season he felt he'd be 'forced' into a cheltenham entry by the owners. Voy Por Ustedes - Looked badly on the downgrade, hammered at Newbury last time. Petit Robin - Had achieved it in one run over 2 miles.

Failure - Tranquil Sea

. You'd have to put his defeat down to the ground - most his form had come on softer ground

. Also he had flopped at the two previous festivals

. Was only 9/13 on handicap marks - yet was 2nd favourite

Conclusions

. Check handicap marks in grade 1s

. Course/Festival form is a bonus

. Look for those who will be suited by better ground


World Hurdle


Big Bucks retains his World Hurdle Crown


Winner - Big Bucks

. Not much that needs saying, won it the year before and held all before him in the current season

Byrne Group Plate


Great Endeavour provides Dany Cook with a maiden festival win


Winner - Great Endeavour

.  Another one who was running off a lower handicap mark than he would over hurdles - however, in this case it was only 1lb.

. Was always seen as a chaser by connections, being a PTP winner.

. Had been outspeeded in small field races over the winter, and a stiffer test was always going to suit him better.

. Had one bit of good course form when 3rd behind Lie Forrit at the open.

. Could have been argued better ground was going to suit him - had won 3/4 previous starts with the word 'good' in the going.


FWKM


Ballabriggs clears the last before faltering up the hill


Winner - Ballabriggs

. Had won 2/2 this season over fences - both extremely easily and was only up 10lbs for the later win.

. Connections had won the race previously with Cloudy Lane.

. Although he was 9, he was one of the least exposed horses in the field. He'd run 10 times over fences but only two of those had been in the past 2 years

Thursday 7 October 2010

2010 Cheltenham Festival Review - Day 2

National Hunt Chase


Katie Walsh celebrates after taking the National Hunt
Chase Under Poker De Sivola

Winner - Poker De Sivola

. Although many people would have seen it as a negative - he was a second season novice which means he had more experience than many in the field. He had had 11 runs in chase before including in races such as the FWKM here the season before and the Irish National, meaning he would have been far more streetwise than much of the opposition

. He had always been seen as a chaser by his connections judging by the comments on the RP database. He was heavily gambled into 7/2f by the shrewd stable in this FWKM last year, surely meaning they thought he was far better than his mark of 130.  The average winning performance in this race in the previous 10 years from a handicapping point of view had been 138. Him going off 7/2f in such a competitive event surely means connections were confident off him being upto such a mark. Only 5 of the field were rated 138 or above (an none over 141) in this year 's field - so it was clearly a very open race.

. When he was unplaced in the FWKM he was noted as travelling sweetly, Nina Carberry came back in after and stated the ground was far too tacky for him. This year however, it was officialy good not good to soft - so you'd think he was sure to improve.

. He had course form when coming 2nd in a handicap hurdle at the April Meeting

. If you'd have taken out his runs right handed (clearly doesn't go - 4683609) he has a remarkably good record - with 14 runs, 5 wins, 5 places.

Failure - Petitfour

. Hadn't jumped well in his 3 previous chase starts (incl. one unseat) - always look for something proven in the jumping department. If he can't jump well in small novice chases, it's doubtful he will at the festival.

Conclusion

. Experience can never be a negative as a novice chaser in these big fields. On the other hand don't go with a horse who has been jumping poorly over the winter in smaller field novice chases.

. Perhaps look at market moves in previous race - to see if a horse has been fancied to be much better than his current rating when conditions fall right


Neptune Investment Management Novice Hurdle


Peddlers Cross clears the last


Winner - Peddlers Cross

. Had won a grade 2 race on his previous start by 16l - which according to racing post ratings - was the second best performance in the field (behind Reve De Sivola's 2nd to Tell Massini in November). The second was 132 rated Scriptwriter. Taking the form literally then he would have been a 150 horse on that performance, a mark good enough to at least place in most runnings

. Having gone through the PTP field and being NH bred the step up in trip would have been thought to bring further improvement. His combination of speed and stamina was always going to be perfect for such a race

. 9 of the last 11 runners had been ex-bumper horses rather than ex-flat horses

Failures - Rite of Passage and Finian's Rainbow

. Both these were flashy types who had looked like they could achieve more than they already had. However, Finian's Rainbow had looked a bit of a baby so far that season, also added to the fact Henderson's dreadful record in the race (0 from 20, nothing better than 10th since 1990!) he always looked a bit short. Rite of Passage had looked good but had come up against nothing and the hill was always going to be a question mark for him.

Conclusions

. Take form over potential in such a demanding race. Reve de sivola/Peddlers Cross had it in the box and Rite of Passage/Finian's Rainbow did not.

. Look at trainer's records in certain races. Nicky Henderson has a poor record in this race, perhaps because he is sent to buy horses that are likely to outclass their opponents not outslog them and this is not usually a race where a horse saunters home on the bridle. He's always been none for his hurdlers over the minimum distance (great record in triumph and champion hurdle) rather than those over further

RSA Chase


Weapons Amnesty Sails the Last
Winner - Weapons Amnesty

. Had won 1/1 at the course when taking the Albert Bartlett the season before

. He was always going to improve for better ground as he had the previous season and being a son of Presenting.

. Had amassed more experience over British obstacles than his market rivals

. The fact that he was only just beaten over an inadequate trip and on soft ground in his prep, suggested he would run a massive race here

Failures - Punchestowns and Long Run

. Long Run - Only a 5 year old and also had a jockey who would usually have a claim of 5lbs.

. Punchestowns - Reasonably unexperienced with 2 runs over the larger obstacles and his jumping had not looked upto scratch last time. Also he was lame in the week before the race and was a big doubt.

Conclusions

. Course form is important
. Experience in novice races and efficient jumping is a must
. Inexperienced jockeys are a negative. Jockeys like Geraghty, McCoy and Walsh are worth their weight in gold at the festival
. Horses' who have had an interrupted prep and missed some work should also be stayed away from


Queen Mother Champion Chase


Big Zeb takes the Queen Mother with a
disappointing Master Minded behind
Winner - Big Zeb

. Was always thought to be an extremely talented horses but the one thing that set him back time and time again was his jumping. However, this year he hadn't fallen and had jumped well in the main. He jumped left at Sandown - so it is possible the switch back to a left handed track helped him also.

. When he had completed his form over the minimum was 1121411. That 4th was in the tingle creek when he was never apparently travelling and the 2nd was to Master Minded at Punchestown. The fact he really should have beaten MM today should have been a massive pointer to him being at least a value selection at 10/1 (compared to MM 4/5f)

. Trainer Colm Murphy was stated as saying 'he's at least a stone better on better ground' after one of his wins on soft ground over the winter in Ireland.

Failures - Twist Magic and Master Minded

. Twist Magic - Had disappointed at the track many times before and duly did it again.

. Master Minded - Obvious excuse to put forward is the ground. He's a horse obviously suited to cut and this was only his second run on good ground. On his first start he was comfortably beaten by VPU at Aintree. Ruby Walsh came in after and reported that he hadn't let himself down on the ground when asked to quicken

Conclusions

. Look for those who will improve for quicker ground, as well as those who won't improve for the ground


Coral Cup


Spirit River pings the last
Winner - Spirit River

. Had won over the course in November
. Was running a big race off the same mark in the Tote gold trophy before nearly falling, so looked capable of his current mark.

Failure - Deutschland

. Hard to win with - only 2 from 15 over hurdles
. Didn't have any form off such a handicap mark or anywhere close
. Trip was always going to be a slight question mark over such a strong course/strong pace

Conclusion

Look for those who have form around there handicap marks but aren't exposed - for example Spirit River was obviously running a massive race in an equally competitive race off the same mark the race before. Another later example is Thousand Stars, who was 'travelling like a winner' according to RP in his start before the county yet was only off a 1lb higher mark. Also Thousand Stars was allowed to run off a mark very similar to his Irish one, whereas usually his counterparts are hiked 7lbs or so by the British Handicapper.


Fred Winter


Ruby Walsh becomes the winning most festival jockey
Winner - Sanctuaire

. Heralded from the top combination of Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh
. Was heavily backed in
. Had won easily first time out beating a 126 rated horse, Grand Crus - and with only one run under his belt in Britain always had a chance to be ahead of the handicapper
. He was a french bred who have a great record in this race with 4 of the last 5 winners. This is because they are generally believed to mature at a younger age. This season they had 7 runners, 4 of which finished in the top 5 of the field

Conclusion

Follow French breds in juvenile hurdlers as they generally mature younger than their british counterparts 


Champion Bumper


Cue Card Routs the 2010 Champion Bumper Field
No obvious conclusions from this race or reasons for winner/flops