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| Katie Walsh celebrates after taking the National Hunt Chase Under Poker De Sivola |
Winner - Poker De Sivola
. Although many people would have seen it as a negative - he was a second season novice which means he had more experience than many in the field. He had had 11 runs in chase before including in races such as the FWKM here the season before and the Irish National, meaning he would have been far more streetwise than much of the opposition
. He had always been seen as a chaser by his connections judging by the comments on the RP database. He was heavily gambled into 7/2f by the shrewd stable in this FWKM last year, surely meaning they thought he was far better than his mark of 130. The average winning performance in this race in the previous 10 years from a handicapping point of view had been 138. Him going off 7/2f in such a competitive event surely means connections were confident off him being upto such a mark. Only 5 of the field were rated 138 or above (an none over 141) in this year 's field - so it was clearly a very open race.
. When he was unplaced in the FWKM he was noted as travelling sweetly, Nina Carberry came back in after and stated the ground was far too tacky for him. This year however, it was officialy good not good to soft - so you'd think he was sure to improve.
. He had course form when coming 2nd in a handicap hurdle at the April Meeting
. If you'd have taken out his runs right handed (clearly doesn't go - 4683609) he has a remarkably good record - with 14 runs, 5 wins, 5 places.
Failure - Petitfour
. Hadn't jumped well in his 3 previous chase starts (incl. one unseat) - always look for something proven in the jumping department. If he can't jump well in small novice chases, it's doubtful he will at the festival.
Conclusion
. Experience can never be a negative as a novice chaser in these big fields. On the other hand don't go with a horse who has been jumping poorly over the winter in smaller field novice chases.
. Perhaps look at market moves in previous race - to see if a horse has been fancied to be much better than his current rating when conditions fall right
Neptune Investment Management Novice Hurdle
Winner - Peddlers Cross
. Had won a grade 2 race on his previous start by 16l - which according to racing post ratings - was the second best performance in the field (behind Reve De Sivola's 2nd to Tell Massini in November). The second was 132 rated Scriptwriter. Taking the form literally then he would have been a 150 horse on that performance, a mark good enough to at least place in most runnings
. Having gone through the PTP field and being NH bred the step up in trip would have been thought to bring further improvement. His combination of speed and stamina was always going to be perfect for such a race
. 9 of the last 11 runners had been ex-bumper horses rather than ex-flat horses
Failures - Rite of Passage and Finian's Rainbow
. Both these were flashy types who had looked like they could achieve more than they already had. However, Finian's Rainbow had looked a bit of a baby so far that season, also added to the fact Henderson's dreadful record in the race (0 from 20, nothing better than 10th since 1990!) he always looked a bit short. Rite of Passage had looked good but had come up against nothing and the hill was always going to be a question mark for him.
Conclusions
. Take form over potential in such a demanding race. Reve de sivola/Peddlers Cross had it in the box and Rite of Passage/Finian's Rainbow did not.
. Look at trainer's records in certain races. Nicky Henderson has a poor record in this race, perhaps because he is sent to buy horses that are likely to outclass their opponents not outslog them and this is not usually a race where a horse saunters home on the bridle. He's always been none for his hurdlers over the minimum distance (great record in triumph and champion hurdle) rather than those over further
RSA Chase
Neptune Investment Management Novice Hurdle
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| Peddlers Cross clears the last |
Winner - Peddlers Cross
. Had won a grade 2 race on his previous start by 16l - which according to racing post ratings - was the second best performance in the field (behind Reve De Sivola's 2nd to Tell Massini in November). The second was 132 rated Scriptwriter. Taking the form literally then he would have been a 150 horse on that performance, a mark good enough to at least place in most runnings
. Having gone through the PTP field and being NH bred the step up in trip would have been thought to bring further improvement. His combination of speed and stamina was always going to be perfect for such a race
. 9 of the last 11 runners had been ex-bumper horses rather than ex-flat horses
Failures - Rite of Passage and Finian's Rainbow
. Both these were flashy types who had looked like they could achieve more than they already had. However, Finian's Rainbow had looked a bit of a baby so far that season, also added to the fact Henderson's dreadful record in the race (0 from 20, nothing better than 10th since 1990!) he always looked a bit short. Rite of Passage had looked good but had come up against nothing and the hill was always going to be a question mark for him.
Conclusions
. Take form over potential in such a demanding race. Reve de sivola/Peddlers Cross had it in the box and Rite of Passage/Finian's Rainbow did not.
. Look at trainer's records in certain races. Nicky Henderson has a poor record in this race, perhaps because he is sent to buy horses that are likely to outclass their opponents not outslog them and this is not usually a race where a horse saunters home on the bridle. He's always been none for his hurdlers over the minimum distance (great record in triumph and champion hurdle) rather than those over further
RSA Chase
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| Weapons Amnesty Sails the Last |
Winner - Weapons Amnesty
. Had won 1/1 at the course when taking the Albert Bartlett the season before
. He was always going to improve for better ground as he had the previous season and being a son of Presenting.
. Had amassed more experience over British obstacles than his market rivals
. The fact that he was only just beaten over an inadequate trip and on soft ground in his prep, suggested he would run a massive race here
Failures - Punchestowns and Long Run
. Long Run - Only a 5 year old and also had a jockey who would usually have a claim of 5lbs.
. Punchestowns - Reasonably unexperienced with 2 runs over the larger obstacles and his jumping had not looked upto scratch last time. Also he was lame in the week before the race and was a big doubt.
Conclusions
. Course form is important
. Experience in novice races and efficient jumping is a must
. Inexperienced jockeys are a negative. Jockeys like Geraghty, McCoy and Walsh are worth their weight in gold at the festival
. Horses' who have had an interrupted prep and missed some work should also be stayed away from
Queen Mother Champion Chase
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| Big Zeb takes the Queen Mother with a disappointing Master Minded behind |
. Was always thought to be an extremely talented horses but the one thing that set him back time and time again was his jumping. However, this year he hadn't fallen and had jumped well in the main. He jumped left at Sandown - so it is possible the switch back to a left handed track helped him also.
. When he had completed his form over the minimum was 1121411. That 4th was in the tingle creek when he was never apparently travelling and the 2nd was to Master Minded at Punchestown. The fact he really should have beaten MM today should have been a massive pointer to him being at least a value selection at 10/1 (compared to MM 4/5f)
. Trainer Colm Murphy was stated as saying 'he's at least a stone better on better ground' after one of his wins on soft ground over the winter in Ireland.
Failures - Twist Magic and Master Minded
. Twist Magic - Had disappointed at the track many times before and duly did it again.
. Master Minded - Obvious excuse to put forward is the ground. He's a horse obviously suited to cut and this was only his second run on good ground. On his first start he was comfortably beaten by VPU at Aintree. Ruby Walsh came in after and reported that he hadn't let himself down on the ground when asked to quicken
Conclusions
. Look for those who will improve for quicker ground, as well as those who won't improve for the ground
Coral Cup
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| Spirit River pings the last |
Winner - Spirit River
. Had won over the course in November
. Was running a big race off the same mark in the Tote gold trophy before nearly falling, so looked capable of his current mark.
Failure - Deutschland
. Hard to win with - only 2 from 15 over hurdles
. Didn't have any form off such a handicap mark or anywhere close
. Trip was always going to be a slight question mark over such a strong course/strong pace
Conclusion
Look for those who have form around there handicap marks but aren't exposed - for example Spirit River was obviously running a massive race in an equally competitive race off the same mark the race before. Another later example is Thousand Stars, who was 'travelling like a winner' according to RP in his start before the county yet was only off a 1lb higher mark. Also Thousand Stars was allowed to run off a mark very similar to his Irish one, whereas usually his counterparts are hiked 7lbs or so by the British Handicapper.
Fred Winter
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| Ruby Walsh becomes the winning most festival jockey |
Winner - Sanctuaire
. Heralded from the top combination of Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh
. Was heavily backed in
. Had won easily first time out beating a 126 rated horse, Grand Crus - and with only one run under his belt in Britain always had a chance to be ahead of the handicapper
. He was a french bred who have a great record in this race with 4 of the last 5 winners. This is because they are generally believed to mature at a younger age. This season they had 7 runners, 4 of which finished in the top 5 of the field
Conclusion
Follow French breds in juvenile hurdlers as they generally mature younger than their british counterparts
Champion Bumper
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| Cue Card Routs the 2010 Champion Bumper Field |
No obvious conclusions from this race or reasons for winner/flops
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