The 2010-2011 Cheltenham season gets underway today with the showcase - although not of the same substance of many of the other Cheltenham meetings there are still plenty of talented individuals on show both today and tomorrow. Although I have no big fancies, below are a few longer priced horses (along with a shorter one!) who i will be taking a small chance with
5.05 - Lucky Luk - 0.5pt E-W @ 28-1 (BOG)
In a very open race, where any amount could win, this one seems massively overpriced to me. Although described as 'basically slow' by RP a course like Cheltenham suits him and usually in amateur races like this they go off a bit quick which can only help his chances.
All his best form has been shown on testing/undulating tracks, which of course Cheltenham is, so a chance is taken he can produce some of his best form here. At Towcester/Exeter (both testing/undulating tracks) over 3 miles or more his form reads 1131511. The 3rd wasn't even that bad a performance as the winner is now rated some 24lbs higher.
He's beaten some good horses in those runs as well - in his last run he beat River Indus - who through that horse has a better chance than Scots Dragoon (much shorter in betting), and also Sea Wall (holds Marblehead through him)
He'll love the quick ground and importantly he has always gone well after a break before, winning twice after a 6 month break off.
The one negative is his jockey, which is why stakes are being kept to a minimum, as as far as I'm aware it's his first ride over fences. However, of course he does have a 7lb claim to help putting this fellow off just 10st 7.
2.45 - Frontier Dancer - 1pt Win @ 12-5
Seems massively overpriced to me due to the fact
1. He's best in at the weights on his best hurdles form last season
2. He's got chase experience - Favourite/3rd favourite don't
3. He's race fit - As above
Keighley's also usually take a run to get fit and I wasn't a fan of the Nicholls horse last year, so at the prices he seems an obvious bet.
3.20 - Raslan - 1pt E-W @ 16/1 (BOG)
3.20 - Kings Forest - 0.5pt @ 15/2 (BOG)
In a race in which many won't be fully tuned up (Amber Brook, Buena Vista, Lough Derg) a chance can be taken on these two. Raslan is taken to run a big race and improve his record with both a tongue tie and visor on. Won very well when they were put on two starts back (should hold Battle Group in my opinion) and then came 2nd to a very unexposed sort in a good race last time. Hasn't run to well at the course before, but has come 3rd on one of the few times the conditions would have suited him.
A small chance is also taken on Kings Forest who ran a much better race than is at first obvious last time. However, I'm not totally sure he'll stay so only a small bet is advised. If he does, he'll go very close.
Others to note
. Calgary Bay would eat these if fit - but that's a big question mark. If not Midnight Chase could be the one to capitalise
. Last race seems very tough and I'd be opposing the favourite Astracad. I'd give a chance to the Nicholls one who has apparently been working with Escortmen, and also Higgys Boy. He was backed into 6/1 in a tougher race last time suggesting they think he's capable of this mark, and with the blinkers back on could run a big race.
Good luck.
RESULTS
Lucky Luk - 5th : - 1pt
Frontier Dancer - 2nd: -1pt
Raslan - 3rd: + 3pts
King's Forest - 8th : - 0.5pt
In others to note, Calgary Bay was blatantly unfit (came there down the hill looking a big danger and blew up) and as suggest Midnight Chase was the one that took advantage at 6/1. Organisiteur also ran a very nice to come 2nd at 7/1. Astracad proved me wrong and won the race at 9/4f, with Higgy's Boy disappointing. It must be noted, that the time of the race was favourable compared to the 4yo race the next day (won by the ultra impressive Clerk's Choice), and the top 3 should all be kept on the right side of in their next races. Organisiteur was outpaced and is interestingly entered over 2m4 this coming weekend.
Total: +0.5pt
No comments:
Post a Comment