Mister McGoldrick - 2pts E/W @ 7/1 (BOG)
The evergreen Mister McGoldrick makes his seasonal reappearance and a chance should be taken on him to take the spoils at an attractive looking 7/1.
1. He goes incredibly well fresh
His record fresh since 2002 reads 11165153. However, also his last 2 seasonal reappearances are much better than the form figure suggests. Last time he came 3rd over an inadequate trip and on softer ground than ideal, yet still produced an RPR of 150 (joint best of that season). 2 years ago he was only beaten 5l in the Old Roan off a mark of 160 and ran an RPR of 154 (best of season). Also his trainer has been quoted in her pre-season stable tour as saying he's "working very well" so a top run should hopefully be expected.
2. He loves the track
If ever a track belonged to a horse in the modern era of jump racing you'd be pushed not to give it to Mister McGoldrick and Wetherby. His form figures at the track are 114111111477. With form not with good in the going description 41111141.
3. Quicker ground is key for him these days
Although he used to go on soft ground, it seems this day like many other horses (eg Yeats) as they get older prefer better ground. Since April 2007 he's run 14 times on ground with 'good' in the description short of 3 miles over fences, and everytime he's recorded an RPR of at least 142. With the majority of them over 148.
4. He seems well handicapped
He runs off 139 today, which is his lowest mark since his novice days. Also he has a good 5lb claimer on in the shape of Shane Byrne who he gets on really well with, so effectively he's running off 134. Even last season he showed he can run to a good mark when he gets conditions to suit like today. For example he was only beaten 5l in the Festival plate off an 8lb higher mark (taking into account the claimer). That's a very strong bit of form with the only horse to finish above him to come out is From Dawn to Dusk, who won a big handicap next time out and is now rated 13lbs higher. Also the 1st and 2nd are near the top of the market in the upcoming PaddyPower Gold Cup.
5. The Competition all have question marks next to them in some respect
Lease Lend - Has gone up 16lbs for his 3 wins last season and struggled when upped in class to a similar race last time. Also he has quicker ground to contened with. However, he hasn't looked back on the whole since hold up tactics were introduced and with a lot of pace in the race (Mr McG, Frankie Figg, Soulard) he is respected.
According to Pete - Not sure how good he'll be fresh - usually trainer has warmed him up on the flat where he usually gets well beaten first time out. Ground could also said to be quicker than ideal.
Soulard - First time out, competition up front, market very negative.
Frankie Figg - Hasn't shown that much over orthodox fences (usually seen over national ones) and his completion record over both isn't great. Even over plain fences his record reads F133F353. Competition up front as well today.
My Moment - Trip a big question mark, usually comes on for first run, hammered last 3 chase starts.
Star of Germany - Shown nothing for a while, trainer not in great form.
Qulinton - Probably the main danger, but better handicapped horses in the race. Should however be suited by drop in trip.
Neptune Equester - Up in the weights for form that hasn't worked out that well. Also has looked a stayer so the drop down in trip for his first run of the season looks like it won't suit.
With so many doubts about the competition you'd have to think Mr McGoldrick will definitely be there or thereabouts and so a chance should be taken on him at 7/1 with everything in his favour.
Result
3rd @ 7/1 - Return of +0.8 pts
Running total +1.3pts
Excellent analysis would have been with your selection myself today so many off these exposed handicappers get overlooked time after time good look for the winter months ahead
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