Thursday 26 August 2010

2010 Cheltenham Festival Review - Day 1

The point of this part of the blog is to look back on the 2010 festival and highlight the obvious reasons why the winners should have been considered to be at least on a shortlist beforehand and why the failures represented no value whatsoever at their prices.
Supreme Novices


Menorah defeats Getmeoutofhere in the 2010 Supreme Novice Hurdle

Winner -  Menorah

. Impressive Winner at Kempton
. Last race was a muddling one - easily forgiven
. Already relatively battle hardened compared to other fancied rivals (Dunguib/Oscar Whiskey)
. Strong Pace was sure to suit

Failure - Dunguib

. Not a fluent hurdler on what he had shown
. Quicker ground for the first time over hurdles.
. Inexperienced Jockey

Conclusion - Like 2009 failure Cousin Vinny, Dunguib was the second horse in a row to be a short price all winter whilst still showing jumping frailties and then fail at the festival. A horse who has shown they can hurdle fluently whilst ALSO putting in solid performances over the winter against decent yard sticks is always a good place to start. The two most obvious contenders on that basis this year were Menorah and Getmeoutofhere who filled the first two places.

Arkle Chase


Sizing Europe Clears the Last
Winner - Sizing Europe

. Imperious in Novice Chases that season
. Proven he'd stay a bit further
. Always looked like he'd be a bit chaser than hurdler
. Good course form
. Looked sure to be suited by the better ground
. Top rated hurdler in the field

Failure - Captain Cee Bee

. Old for a novice chaser
. Hadn't looked the best jumper
. Had no form over further than 2 miles
. Broken blood vessels before

Conclusion: Sizing Europe became the highest rated hurdler in the field to win 6 of the last 10 runnings. He'd been imperious over the winter in novice chasers and the quicker ground could only suit him even more. Captain Cee Bee may well have been beaten him over the christmas period, but as they say fences are there to be jumped and he'd made a similar mistake at the last in his prep run.

William Hill Chase


Chief Dan George holds on from The Package

Winner - Chief Dan George

. Came out near the top of trends lists
. A spring horse, always seems to come alive at this time of year
. Quicker ground than he'd race on all year round was set to suit him. Trainer said after his last win on soft ground "He's a spring horse, and though he loved heavy ground over hurdles, he needs decent ground to help his jumping over fences"
. Was running off 142, at his peak he was rated 155 over hurdles
. In his last run he beat Tamarinbleu who was running off 145 (but rated 167 at peak) and they pulled 23 lengths clear
. In one of his few chase runs on good ground he beat Sa Suffit by 3l (rated 152 at the time of cheltenam) and Razor Royale by 17l (rated 149)

Failure - Bensalem

To be fair most of the fancied horses ran well in this race, so even though he was going well when he fell you'd have to put Bensalem down as a failure as it was his jumping that was always going to cause a problem.

He'd never a) run in a chase with more than 5 runners and b) run in a handicap chase, so considering he'd already fallen once and not looked fluent on other occasions it will always going to be a big ask for him to jump around against an experienced field. However, the way he travelled off his mark and his subsequent defeat over hurdles at Punchestowns suggest he should be able to take a big handicap chase this winter off a similar mark.

Conclusion: This race once again proved that you want to be looking for a horse that will improve for the quicker ground at cheltenham - other obvious examples this year would have been Weapons Amnesty and Great Endeavour. You could also say that like the Arkle, hurdle form to a degree is relevant as on hurdle form Chief Dan George would have been clear pick at the weights. Also although you should be looking for something unexposed in the field, you should be looking at something thats jumped round in big fields before without mistakes as at Cheltenham pressure will always be put on your jumping due to the pace the races are often run at and the course itself.

Champion Hurdle


Binocular Bounces Back
Winner - Binocular

One of ones that in hindsight it's easy to see why it should have been seriously considered and was massively overpriced at 9/1, though at the time was easily dismissed by most people (including me) due to the fact he hadn't shown much that season. Below are some reasons why it should have been considered though.

. Why were they running him? It was all but ruled out a fortnight or so before the race, so surely there must have been some drastic change in him for them to then let him take his chances
. He was a short priced favourite as a 5 year old and did incredibly well to get that close as such an inexperienced horse. It's highly publicised that 5 year olds don't have a good record in the race, so to get so close (even if disappointing to some) only enhanced his claims as a 6 year old.
.The movement of the final flight was always going to suit his running style more

Failure - Go Native

Go Native was the obvious failure but this has been put down to his mistake he made at the second. In hindsight there's still no reason to doubt why he was a short price, as he's always jumped extremely well in the past and had held all before him on his last two starts. The current 25/1 on betfair for him for the 2011 Champion Hurdle seems a massive price.

Conclusion:

Look at those that go close as 5 year olds and come back as 6 year olds, was a key thing to take from this race, as Binocular became the second winner in a row to place as a 5 year old and come back as a 6 year old to win it. In that respect Zaynar is the one to take from the field this year but he looks like he'll take the stayers route next season. Another 5 year old Starluck never got into it this year, though he was only 3l away from the placings. The trainer reported after his prep run that he wouldn't be the finished article until next season, and although he'll doubtful be good enough to challenge Binocular next season, the 40/1 available now EW with the bookmakers could well look a big price by Christmas with a lot of question marks around his rivals. This race also confirmed that course form is always key at Cheltenham, with the winner having placed at 2 festivals, the runner up having won his last 2 starts at the course, as had the third.

Cross Country Chase


A New Story takes the Cross Country Chase from L'Ami


Winner - A New Story

No Obvious reason why it should win even with the benefit of hindsight. Pricewise did select it at 40-1 though, with the reasoning having something to do with he'd just run his best race over hurdles for many years. Also had a featherweight, though he had been hammered every time he'd run over the course and distance, including by 40l off a lower mark last year.

Failure - Garde Champetre

. The quicker ground was a possible reason for doubting him. His form on good ground since he took to fences was 250F191 compared to 412291121111 with cut in the ground.
. His mark was also getting extremely high and horse on past run should have beaten him at the weights for example L'ami was 4lbs better off for under a 2 length defeat last year.
. Though in the end it could have been his mistake at the Aintree fence that cost him.

Conclusion:

Bit of a turn up to be honest, suppose once again just showing course experience over this unique course is a big positive. I have mentioned already we should be looking for horses that will improve for the better ground at the festival, well we should also be looking for horse who won't (for example Masterminded aswell)

Mares Hurdle


Quevega takes the Mares Hurdle for the second year running
Winner - Quevega

. Had won the race last year by 14l
. Had won every season first time out since being moved to Willie Mullins
. Had the best form in the book on all types of ground

Failure - Voler La Ledette

. Inflated rating came from a defeat of Go Native. Although a very good performance, should not have been as highly rated as it was, as Go Native would have hated the ground
. Most her form was over shorter than the 20f trip. Over 20f she had flopped once and the other time had won but it was neither anywhere near some of her other form or near what Quevega had achieved in the race last year.

Conclusion: These two were miles clear at the top of the market and the only conclusions to possibly draw from this are that once again course form is always a massive positive and also stick with horses with form over the distance.