Paddy Power Chase (Grade B) (Extended Handicap) Preview

At last the weather has cleared up and below are my thoughts on the big handicap in Ireland tomorrow. As always I have approached it initially from a trends based approach. The trends I have found for the race are:

Age 6-8

2-4 runs season

3-12 runs chases

1-7 runs handicap chases

Max 22 lifetime starts

Won 1-3 chases

Won max 1 handicap chase

Not run in 25k+ race this season

Placed in 20k+ chase

Placed in a handicap chase

Not won more than 1 chase over 3 miles

Max 3 finishes in 3m handicaps

21-49 days rest

Top 5 last time out

1-3 Seasons chasing

Won 15+ field

Carrying max 10st 11

Running off a mark of max 124 (taking off rider's claim if necessary)

Of these, the last 10 winners bar Cane Brake, all scored at least 16. Cane Brake however went on to be beaten not too far in that year's Gold Cup, however, there doesn't seem to be any horse of that calibre in the race this year.

This year's top scorers

16 - Undergraduate, Old Si, The Burrow Vic and Glenquest.

Selections

The Burrow Vic - 25/1 Paddy Power (Each way first 5 places)

After his first win over hurdles his trainer stated that he 'needs 3 miles', so it's perhaps surprising that since then he's only run twice over the trip. First time was in a novice handicap hurdle when he came 3rd to Quite De La Roque (pulling 16l clear of 4th in a 25 runner field). That form has been franked with the winner coming 2nd in the Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown today. The second time he won at Sligo last time out. He only won by 1.25l but he travelled by far the best horse in the race and cruised to the last, only having to be got at late when another horse came late too. He's been raised 13lbs for that, which may seem harsh, but he definitely won with a fair bit in hand. His form on heavy is 54313, so he'll obviously handle the conditions well. Like Glenquest he's off a featherweight (9st 10) and is very unexposed at the trip, so at 25/1 he rates good value.

Oscar Looby - 33/1 Will Hill

Probably the best handicapped horse in the field on his piece of form when he beat Alpha Ridge and Telenor. Can't see too many negatives on him, trip maybe a slight question (only won once over 3miles - slow time), though interestingly 4 of the last 10 winners had not won at the trip yet. Also he has a claimer on - but 5/10 winners have been riden by a jockey claiming. Positives are he has 7lbs off his back so only has 10st 9 on his back and he'll love the heavy ground (form with heavy in F121314). Also it's interesting his trainer says he believes he's better going left handed. Most his form recently has been RH and looking at his form when he's run on LH tracks his form is 321211PF (1211 on heavy - only being beaten by Gr1 winning Kempes). He gets on well in big fields (form in 16+ is 33111FP) and it's interesting he has first time cheek pieces on here, which could just make him concentrate a bit. At the forecast odds he is a worth a bet.


Selections

1.5pt E/W The Burrow Vic 25/1 (5 places) BOG
1 pt E/W Oscar Looby 33/1 (4 places) BOG

2010 Welsh National Preview

The first National of the season is upon us, so lets hope it goes ahead at some point. Below are my initial thoughts. I'll approach it to begin with from a statistical approach as always.

Age 6-9
OR 131-152
11st Max
1-2 runs season
14+ runs total
Won at Chepstow if run there
Won over 3m+
Won 2-5 Chases
Won MAX 2 Handicap chases
Run in class2+ season
Placed in a graded chase
If run in handicaps placed in a graded one
Placed in a 26f+ handicap
140+ Chase RPR
20-54 day break
Top 4 last time out
Not out of the top 4 this season
Placed in 17+ field
Run over 30f+
2nd/3rd season chaser

Of these 20 stats, all of the last 10 winners have scored at least 17. The top scores for this year are as follows;

18 - Bluesea Cracker
17 - Arbor Supreme, Ballyfitz
16 - Dream Alliance
15 - Synchronised, Dance Island, Maktu, Hello Bud, Lochan Laca, Royal Rosa, Silver by Nature

Synchronised + Watamu Bay


Personally find it hard to see him winning off this weight. To put in into perspective the only horses to carry at least this much weight to victory in the races history were Carvill's Hill, Bonanza Boy and Master Oats. All three were grade one class on the day, and in fact the latter won the Gold Cup 3 months later. Also all three had won the rehearsal chase that season over the course (since moved to Newcastle and abandoned this season).

Looking at it from an RPR perspective all the last 10 winners (bar the Irish Trained Notre Pere) had achieved an RPR of at least 6lbs in excess of it's OR, Synchronised has not. Also All the last 10 winners have run an RPR in this race of at least 13lbs above it's OR. To do this Synchronised would have to run to a mark of 169, which to be honest seems unlikely.

The race that Synchronised won as novice, has a very good record for those in their first season chasing so it wasn't the biggest shock to see him win. He needed reminders throughout the race so perhaps the drop in trip by half a mile won't be in his favour either. It must be also noted that there were big question marks over his jumping before that run, so there still has to be a slight doubt in that regard. Also he's not overly big, so giving weight away to quality animal could be hard work for him.

He's a very ground dependent horse, the more bottomless the better, and although I have no idea how the ground will end up, it's only officially good to soft at Chepstow at the moment so this has to be a worry. At the prices there are more than enough reasons to take him on.

I'd have similar worries with regards to Watamu Bay in how well handicapped he is. He also will have a big weight on his back (11st 3) and using typical RPRs he'd have to run to 161+ to win an average Welsh National, on just his 4th start over fences this looks a nigh on impossible task for a horse who's 3 chase RPRs have been 129, 140, 144. In his one start at the course he lost to Balthazar King whilst getting 6lbs from that horse, which is nowhere near to the quality needed to win this race. Since then he's only won a 3 and 5 runner race, both odds on. Over hurdles he only ran one RPR greater than 118. At 12/1 he has to rate at poor value also.

Shortlist


My shortlist are the top three in my ratings - Bluesea Cracker (14/1), Arbor Supreme (25/1) and Ballyfitz (33/1).

First of all looking at them at RPRs they have all already achieved an RPR of at least 6lbs in excess of their OR - Arbor Supreme (10), Bluesea Cracker (7), Ballyfitz (18!).

So theoretically Ballyfitz has already run 3 races in his lifetime good enough to win an average Welsh National of this mark, there is also obvious hope for the others to improve. Arbor Supreme ran his mark over 21f which is obviously an inadequate trip for him, so if he produces that kind of performance over this kind of trip (has won over marathon trips before) he can easily find the 4lbs or so improvement needed. Bluesea Cracker won the Irish National last year more easily than the margin suggests, and that being only her 3rd run out of novice company there is surely more to come. Now going through them one by one.

Arbor Supreme (25/1) - Hard to get right, but if he puts his best foot forward he'll definitely be there thereabouts. A winner twice over Marathon trips in Ireland (29f on soft and 30f on good) he should get the trip well and is adaptable with regards to ground. He's falls down on 2 of his 3 stats because of his poor run first time out. However, he wasn't great first time out last season and also even though he won first time out 2 seasons ago Mullins didn't think he had him fully fit, so you'd be inclined to forgive him the run. His form over 3m4f+ over regulation fences is 24110, and was fancied for the Grand National off a similar mark last year before unseating at the chair. Adaptable with regards to ground, with a slightly lower weight than usual, if he's sent over he's sure to run a nice race.

Bluesea Cracker (14/1) - Out of the 3 I've shortlist she's the most consistent as so probably has to rate the most likely winner. Stats she falls down are not out of top 4 this season (unplaced in hurdle prep first time out) and the fact she hasn't run over 30f. It seems a bit harsh to mark her down on this though as she's won an Irish National over 29f on soft ground! She's only up 9lbs for that and it seems more than fair for an unexposed horse over these distances who was also a grade 2 winner as a novice. She ran a great race off a 1lb higher mark at Cheltenham last time, travelling visibly well (travelling miles better than anything else bar Midnight Chase) before blowing up. Obviously much better than that she will run a massive race if she turns up.

Ballyfitz (33/1) - Very in and out horse but if he gets soft ground he'll be a horse to be reckoned with off this declining mark. Loves it soft, with his last 6 runs on ground quicker than soft reading PP0F84. Very well handicapped on his novice chase form there was also room for encouragement last year. Beaten 10l off a 12lb higher mark in Paddy Power on soft ground, staying on over a trip too short (RPR good enough to win this of this mark). He then won on heavy over hurdles at Sandown off a 8lb higher mark. He then ran in this race off a 10lb higher mark last year, beaten 20l. This was especially encouraging as he made a shocking blunder down the back straight and did well to get back into it. He's weighted to beat Silver by Nature on that form and be close to Dream Alliance, and those 2 are much shorter int he betting even though they have shown nothing since. His run first time out can be excused because of the ground and his 4th at Haydock was very promising (off a 14lb higher mark) finishing only behind the exciting trio of Grand Crus, Barafundle (won since) and Peveril. He's obviously likely to hit one but if he doesn't or doesn't make too many mistakes he will go very close off this lenient mark of 134.

It's hard to know yet who will run/what the ground will be/how badly the trainers have been held back with the weather, so I haven't placed any bets yet but will keep this page updated through the week if i do.

Vote AP Gold Cup preview

So the second big 2m5f Cheltenham handicap chase of the season is upon us and a quality field looks set to go to post. Below are my thoughts on the race starting with my 10 year trends.

. Age 6-8
. Max 151 OR
. 1-3 runs in current season
. Max 9 runs in chases
. 1-5 runs in handicap chases
. 14+ total runs
. Won this season if more than one run
. 2-4 chase wins
. Won maximum 1 handicap chase
. Placed in class 2 in current season
. Placed in a grade chase in lifetime
. Won Class2+ chase lifetime
. Good form in 2 and 1/2 mile handicap chases if tried
. 144+ RPR season
. Run personal best this year if run more than once
. Run within 4 weeks
. Good Cheltenham Form
. Top 3 last time out in a class2+
. 2nd or 3rd season chasers
. Not out of top 2 this season since first run
. Won in 13+ field

Out of these 21 trends, all of the last 10 winners, bar the Irish Trained Go Roger Go, scored at least 18

This years results

20 - Little Josh
19 - Noble Alan
18 - Max Max, Psycho, Daves Dream

Little Josh


Looks to have an obvious chance, but the current price of 6/1 doesn't seem to have any mileage in it whatsoever.

3 of the last 5 winners of this race have come from running great races in the Paddy Power. These were Exotic Dancer, Monkerhostin and Poquelin.

The first two placed in the PP and then won off the same mark and 1lb higher respectively. However, Little Josh is having to run off a 9lb higher mark in this.

Exotic Dancer won off a 10lb higher mark, however, he only won by just over a length and was rated 23lbs higher by the end of the season. The equivalent of this would be Little Josh be rated 178 by the end of the season, which looks very unlikely. And to win this he'd probably have to have another 7-10 pounds in hand anyway, which would see him having to run a low to mid 160s at this point which also seems unlikely.

The ground could also be a slight question mark if the conditions stay quick as they are at the moment

Dave's Dream


Another one who's probably best left alone at the prices. I'd firstly leave him alone, as he's been put up 11lbs for a win here in November, which is an awful lot. Secondly he is best fresh. His record with at least 2 months off is 11111, and with less than that 0166340.

Selections


Noble Alan

For me at the prices he is the absolute stand out bet, though there is a slight question mark about him turning up (3 entries this week - This, Peterborough chase (off?), 2m handicap chase on this card). I reckon he'll run here though and If he runs though and he's 25/1, he is a must bet. He runs with 10st6 on his back and off mark of 143.

The ground at the moment is good and with no rain forecast before the race it looks to ride quick which will suit this guy down to the ground (whereas others may struggle)

His form on good or quicker reads 14121121631. He'll also appreciate the galloping track and as well the undulations. He ran a great 2nd here on his only start and was arguably unlucky. He's only run on one other undulating track, Hexham, where he's 2 from 2.

The slight question mark with him is the trip. However he's one from one over it, although it was only a 5 runner field and a very slow time. The other reason for optimism is his breeding. His brother (Full House) was a two and half miler with all 4 of his chase wins over 2 and half. He also needed quick ground and won over 20f on the flat. In recent races (such as Ascot last time) Noble Alan has been badly outpaced before staying on.

The other thing we have to of course question is how well handicapped he is? I'd argue to he still has room to manoeuvre of this mark. His trainer has always thought the world of him and he's only off a 4lb higher mark than he won a grade 2 handicap hurdle last year very easily. He's very unexposed over fences with only 7 finishes (won 4) and 2 starts in handicaps. His defeats have been pretty handy as well. He split I'm Deliah (giving 9lbs) and Noble Request (giving 6lbs), and he came 6th at Aintree in the grade 1 novice chase behind Tataniano. In the race he arguably travelled as well as anything (better than Osana, and not much worse than the winner) into the straight, before breaking a blood vessel and fading. He won off 145 earlier this season also (2lb lower here!) but you'd say it's not relevant as the horses who were close behind him were out of the handicap too.

A strong pace is necessary and he should get this in his big field (form in 13+ fields on quick ground 1121). If he turns up and the ground is quick i'd expect him to go very close.

Psycho

Another very unexposed one, with only 6 chase starts (5 finishes). The only times he's lost when completed are on his first chase start, and his first start this season - when RP said he didn't look sharp and took a big blow. He then massively improved for his first start and beat Osana by just under 5l. RP said he didn't look far off Grade 1 quality on this performance, and so if he is to prove that good he must go close of this mark. All of the last 3 winners have gone on to at least place in a Grade1 by the end of the season, and this sort who's always been said to be a natural over fences looks to be on the few likely to do so.

Mad Max

Fits many a trend, especially given that he's a horse who placed in the Paddy Power running of the same mark. Like Psycho he's one of the few who could be grade 1 quality, and with Carberry back on board looks sure to run a big race. Some of Henderson's looked to have need it first time out this year, and he ran like he needed it last time and so there should be more improvement to come.

Bets

Noble Alan - 0.5pt E/W 25-1 - Various Bookies, 0.5pt E/W 25-1 (BOG) freely available
Psycho - 1pt E/W 10-1, Coral
Mad Max - 1pt Win 11-1 (BOG)

Results as of 27/11/2010

Another great today, with Diamond Harry advised at 9/1. Below are all the results in the season so far;

Paddy Power Gold Cup 13/11/2010

1.5pt E/W Great Endeavour 5/1 (1/4, 1-2-3-4) Coral - Unplaced: -3pts

1 pt E/W Pigeon Island Betfair - Win 30, Place 5.3 - Unplaced: -2pts

Beecher Chase 21/11/2010

Hello Bud just denies Royal Rosa in The Beecher Chase

Royal Rosa - 1pt E/W 20/1 Will Hill, 0.5pt E/W 16/1 Freely available - PLACED: +5.5pts
Whatuthink - 1pt Win 16/1 Ladbrokes - Fell: -1pt
Notre Pere - 1pt Win 10/1 Ladbrokes - Unplaced: -1pt


Troytown Chase 21/11/2010

Jack The Bus jumps to the lead at the last in The Troytown

Siegemaster 1.5pt E/W 16/1 Victor Chandler - PLACED: +4.5pts

Jack The Bus 1pt Win SP (9/1), 0.5pt E/W 14/1 Ladbrokes - WON: +17.75pts

Gerry Fielden Handicap Hurdle 27/11/2010

Rebel Dancer - 1pt E/W 14/1 Paddy Power (BOG) - Returned 16/1 - PLACED: +3pts
The Betchworth Kid - 2pt Win 11/2 William Hill (BOG) - placed: -2pts
Praxitilies - 1pt Win SP - Unplaced: - 1pt

Hennessy Gold Cup 27/11/2010

Diamond Harry cruises to a win in the 2010 Hennessy

1.5pt E/W Diamond Harry - 9/1 William Hill (BOG) - WON: +16.88pts
1pt Win Denman - 5/1 William Hill (BOG) - placed: -1pt
0.5pt E/W The Tother One - 33/1 William Hill (BOG) - PLACED: +3.63pts

Totals

Profit: 40.26pts

Staked: 25pts

Return on Investment: 161%

. 16 Bets
. 6 Profitable
. Winners advised @ 9/1, 14/1
. Horses advised E/W placed @ 20/1, 16/1, 16/1, 33/1

Gerry Feilden Preview

A cracking back up card takes place at Newbury tomorrow, and the race that takes my eye for a bet is the Gerry Feilden, a 2 mile handicap hurdle.

. Age 4-6
. 11st Max
. Max 130 OR
. 0-1 Runs season
. 4-10 Runs hurdle
. 10+ runs total
. Not won this season
. Won 1-2 hurdles
. Not won a handicap hurdle
. 3+ wins total
. Best RPR over 2 miles
. 119-128 Best RPR over 2 miles
. Run very well at course if run there before


12 - Advisor, Praxitiles
11 - Dr Livingstone, Stormy Weather
10 - Kauto Relko, Rebel Dancer, Forty Thirty, The Betchworth Kid

Quite a tricky race to weigh up but there seems to be a bit of value around. Quickly I'll just list the reasons why I've disregarded a few of them;

Advisor - Nicholls says he won't be wound up.
Dr Livingstone, Kauto Relko and Forty Thirty - All don't look good enough.
Stormy Weather - Looks like he needs further and also doesn't look overally well handicapped.

The Betchworth Kid

Seems reasonably rated off 138 and his chance is there for everyone to see. Has form linking in with Kind Edmund, Quantitiveeasing and Tito Bustillo, which makes his mark off 138 look workable as does his flat form. His last run over jumps can be forgiven as he lost shoes and was struck into. He also had a good winter on the flat culminating in a 2nd in the November Handicap, and with the King string in better form than this time last year he should go close.

Rebel Dancer

Seems very progressive since joining the Ian Williams yard. Would have run close to Nearby on his last run but for falling at the last, and that form has been franked no end since. From his action/ flat form there's no reason why he shouldn't handle slightly softer ground. The one worry is he's up 12lbs (combination of hike up in weights/out of handicap), but at 14/1 it's worth risking he can overcome it.

Praxitiles

Dotted up 2 of his last 3 starts and tongue tie seems to have made the world of difference and if he's still on the upward curve he'll take the world of beating. Bred out of the blue, being a full brother to Islington and Greek Dance, he was ultra impressive at Aintree with good form tieing in with Heron bay who's a solid yardstick. Also he's one of the few in the field who will be up there, and so might get the run of things in front and be able to outsprint them being flat bred. The one worry is the ground, which would stop me getting too involved but hopefully it won't be too soft.

Selection

Rebel Dancer - 1pt E/W 14/1 Paddy Power (BOG)
The Betchworth Kid - 2pt Win 11/2 William Hill (BOG)
Praxitilies - 1pt Win SP

Hennessy Gold Cup Preview

One of the finest Hennessy's of recent years will be run tomorrow, but can Denman win it for a record third year? Below are my trends.

. Age 6-7
. 140+ OR
. Max 1 run season
. Max 1 run in handicap
. Won over 25f+
. 2+ Chase wins
. Won a handicap if run in one
. Run in Grade2+ Chase
. Won at least class 2 chase
. Placed off highest mark ever run off
. 147+ RPR in lifetime
. Won at Newbury if run
. Run in class 2+ last time
. Top 2 lto
. 2nd season chaser
. Won 14+ field

The top scorers were as followed;

16 - Weird Al, Burton Port
15 - Diamond Harry, Pandorama
14 - Hey Big Spender

To be honest the results aren't surprising with all the second season chasers coming out at the top the pile.

Selections


Diamond Harry

For me if his jumping is good, the most obvious winner in the race. He is deadly fresh and he sure to appreciate the ground/trip as well. Also he has a very good record at the course. The one horse who has form with all the English Novices last year is Knockara Beau, and through him, Diamond Harry comes out easily top at the weights. First time last year he also hammered Burton Port giving him tonnes of weight. What makes him so potentially well weight compared to the others is his Hurdle form. Over hurdles he would be running off a 12lb higher mark, and if his jumping sticks there's no reason why he can't be just as good a chaser as a hurdler.

Denman

Some horses often prove exception to statistics, and Denman is a definitely one of them. One of the greatest steeplechasers of our generation and he is sure to be there thereabouts tomorrow. 5/1 seems a fair price considering much of the field are out of the handicap and running 'wrong'. If the novices get into a  rhythm then it's not hard to see them going close, but on the other hand Denman could easily just get into a rhythm out in front and put their jumping under pressure. Weird Al/Diamond Harry have never run in big fields and Pandaroma wasn't the best jumper in his 3 starts last term, and if they don't jump (like Long Run in the Paddy Power) they simply won't get near Denman. Paul Nicholls says he's as good as he's ever had him and seems to the think the main danger might come in the form of his stable mate, Taranis.

The Tother One

Considering he's one of the field who's got form of the kind of handicap mark it's not hard to see him going running a nice race. He's only going to have 9st9 on his back which equates to 151. He was only beaten by The Package (now 15lbs higher) at Cheltenham last December off a 1lb higher mark and if he runs to that kind of form he'll be close. His first start this year was in the Charlie Hall and he only finished 4l behind Nacarat. He's still relatively unexposed with only 6 finishs over fences and has only been unplaced on 2 of his 13 starts.

Selections

1.5pt E/W Diamond Harry - 9/1 William Hill (BOG)
1pt Win Denman - 5/1 William Hill (BOG)
0.5pt E/W The Tother One - 33/1 William Hill (BOG)

Todays Results

Cracking results today, though could have been a bit better if Royal Rosa had got up!

Todays Results;

Troytown

Jack the Bus - WON @ 9/1SP (advised at 14/1) - +17.75pts
Siegemaster - Placed @ 16/1 - + 4.5pts

Total = +22.25pts

Beecher

Royal Rosa - 2nd (advised at 20/1 + 16/1 E/W) - +5.5 pts
Whatuthink - -1pt
Notre Pere - - 1pt

Total: +3.5pts

Profit of 25.75pts for the day, roll on the hennessy....

Troytown Handicap Chase Preview

Had a quick look at this and below will give a short write up on my thoughts. The trends are;

. Age 7-8
. OR 118-135
. Max 11st
. 1-2 runs in current season
. 6+ chase runs
. Max 4 handicap chase runs
. 14+ lifetime runs
. Won over 22f+
. Not won a handicap chase in current season
. Won a chase
. Won 3+ race in lifetime
. Placed in 17k+ handicap if run in handicaps
. Completed maximum 3 times in 3m+ handicap chases
. Placed within 5lbs of current mark if run in handicaps
. 125+ RPR season
. 135+ RPR lifetime
. Won at navan, if run
. Top last time out if finished
. 2nd season chaser
. Won in 14 + field

Of the above 20 stats, all of the last 10 winners scored on at least 15, with 9 of them scoring at least 16.

This year's top scorers are;

17 - Hangover
16 - Siegemaster
15 - Got Attitude, Jack The Bus, Hold The Pin

Selections


Siegemaster


My main selection for the race, the main negative against him is his weight/rating but he has a handy 5lb claimer to help him out. Already placed in 2 similar races last year including off a 1lb lower mark (both races the form has been franked). Had other bits of great form last year including when not too far away in a grade 1 at punchestown. He was only 4l behind Denman and Cooldine and gets in off a mark of 145 here (140 if you take his claimer). Started this season very well when not too far behind China Rock/Sizing Europe first time out. Those two have of course gone on to frank the form when only being beaten around 4l by Kauto Star on their next start. That race was over an inadequate trip and on ground quicker than ideal and is said to have put him 'spot on' for this. He too also has good course form winning a grade 2 novice chase over course and distance on testing ground. Back with cheek pieces on that he didn't have first time out he's sure to go close.

Hangover


Can't leave him out being top on the stats, has some good form in the past including being closing tied in with the main selection Siegemaster behind Whinestone Boy last year. Also you would have thought Davy Russell could have ridden Siegemaster if he wanted so he is off obvious interest. Interestingly too he has won on his 3rd start on all of his 3 seasons so far, so maybe he just needs a few runs to get going?

Jack the Bus

Of the ones down the bottom my fancy would be this lad. He's relatively unexposed over the trip with only 3 runs over 23f or more. On the first in a novice hurdle he beat the smart Oscar Time by 2l giving him 8lbs. Then when stepped up in trip over fences he found only the very unexposed saddlers storm too good in a field of 20. Then last time he came 5th when connections said he would have come 2nd but for a mistake 2 out. That was over 3m4f and the drop back to 3 miles off the same mark should see him run a big race.

Bets


Siegemaster 1.5pt E/W 16/1 Victor Chandler
Hangover 1pt Win 20/1 Stan James
Jack The Bus 1pt Win SP


****Hangover NR****


Updated Bets

Siegemaster 1.5pt E/W 16/1 Victor Chandler

Jack The Bus 1pt Win SP, 0.5pt E/W 14/1 Ladbrokes

Beecher Chase Preview

The second big handicap I'll be looking at in detail this season is the Beecher Chase at Aintree over the big fences this sunday. This year it looks as competitive as ever with the bookmakers going 8/1 to the field.

. Age 8-10
. Max 1 run this season
. 10+ runs lifetime
. Won over fences
. 4+ Wins lifetime
. Placed in class 2+ chase
. Placed in Class 2+ Handicap chase, or in highest grade handicap chase tried
. 140+ RPR over fences
. 132+ RPR this season if run
. Run 17+ days ago
. Top 4 last time out (unless graded race)

Using these trends all of the last ten winners scored at least 9 out of 11, with all but one of them scoring 10+ out of 11.

The top scorers this year are as follows:

11 - Notre Pere, Whatuthink
10 - Hello Bud, Maljimar
9 - Royal Rosa

Hello Bud


Has an obvious chance of his rapidly declining mark, but I'd be inclined to take him on on his first run of the season being 12 going on 13. He won first time out 2 years ago, but apart from that he has generally needed it first time out. He has also faded badly on his 2 runs over the course which is surprising given he's won a Scottish National. Given these two points and the fact the ground would be softer than he cares for, there are surely better priced selections than this one at near favouritism.

Maljimar


Another one who's up there in the betting and who goes well fresh. However he still probably has question marks over the distance and is probably better at a shorter trip. There too has always been slight question marks over his jumping with 4 fall/unseats to his name in his chasing career, including over these big fences. Also his mark doesn't seem overally kind considering his form off a higher mark than his 2nd in the 2009 Will Hill Chase (arguably his best run) is U7P25F (excluding his X-C run). He has one win to his name since March 2007 and that was off a 16lb lower mark and so has to being taken on too.

Claiming Jockeys


Although they have had 2 winners in the last 10 years inexperienced jockeys don't have a great record in the race. One winner was Ardent Scout and Dom Elsworth who had already finished the course twice (the other was Liam Heard and Eurotrek).

Looking closer though they have a very poor record at completing the course, which surely has to be something to be considered for anyone thinking of backing such a jockey.

In the last 10 years 124 horses have run with non claiming jockeys on, of these 42 fell or unseat = 34%

However in the same period 26 have run with claiming jockey, of which 16 fell or unseat = 62%.

Horses ridden in the race this year by claimers are;  Gullible Gordon (9/1), Whatuthink (16/1), One Cool Cookie (25/1), Meanus Dandy (8/1), Hello Bud (9/1), Au Courant (66/1). As you can see 3 of these are in the top 6 in the betting, the past suggests only one of these will complete.

Selections

Notre Pere

Has been entered in the national the last couple of years I believe, so connections have obviously always thought he'd hopefully take to these fences. This time last year he was rated 167, yet he gets to run of 151 on Sunday. Had a poor season last year, but looked to be creeping back to his best on his seasonal debut a few weeks back. He travelled well before blowing up and staying on again over an inadequate trip. The big weight should hopefully not bee too much of a problem as 3 times in the last 10 years the top weights have managed to outclass them (Eurotrek, Vic Venturi and Young Kenny). Interestingly also the last 2 winners have both been Irish trained and wearing cheek pieces, which he does. The one worry is the ground. At the moment it's soft with heavy places around the Canal Turn, however, with 2 dry days predicted for Liverpool you can't be sure what it will be like. I've already backed him at 14/1 last night, but would leave him alone at 9/1 for the time being until we know what the weather will be like.

Whatuthink

The other horse with the full stats profile, however you have to be worried about his jumping especially with a 7lb claimer on. However, he has gone well for the jockey before when 3rd in the Irish National and taking into account the jockey he'll only be carrying 10st 8.He too is Irish Trained and came 2nd in the race that last years winner Vic Venturi won as his prep. With his touch of class (placed in grade 1 over hurdles/won a grade 2) and his stamina (3rd in an Irish National) he has to go very close off 10st 8 if he gets around. Another one who is adaptable with regards to ground, but he needs at least some cut.

Royal Rosa

Came 3rd in this race but there are a few reasons to think he can go a bit better this year.

1. He's running of a 3lb lower mark
2. Ran much his best seasonal debut for a while this season and he always improves for his first run. Last year he ran to an RPR of 116 on his first run then 128 in this. This year he ran to a 11lb higher mark (127) and if he got anywhere that much improvement he should go very close.
3. Has cheekpieces back on. Although he failed to improve for them when he first wore them a while back, he's said to keep a bit to himself these days, so hopefully they might bring out a bit of improvement.
4. Usually comes from behind - this year there are 8 runners compared to 17, so hopefully with a bit of stronger pace, he should be able to stay on well.

This horse has never fallen and off 10st he should hopefully being staying on well at the business end off his feather weight.

Bets

Royal Rosa - 1pt E/W 20/1 - Will Hill
Whatuthink - 1pt Win 16/1 - Ladbrokes
Notre Pere - To be confirmed when the state of the ground is known on sunday.

FINAL BETS

Royal Rosa - 1pt E/W 20/1 Will Hill, 0.5pt E/W 16/1 Freely available
Whatuthink - 1pt Win 16/1 Ladbrokes
Notre Pere - 1pt Win 10/1 Ladbrokes

Paddy Power Gold Cup Preview

The seasons first big handicap chase is upon us, the Paddy Power Gold Cup. I've approached it from mainly a stats point of view and below is my main summary.

Through looking at the last 10 years, I have come up with the following stats.

Age 6-8

OR 136-154

11st 3 Max

Max 1 race this season

Run in Max 2 handicap chases

Max win around 2m5 (give half a point for anything further)

Won 2+ Chases

Won max 1 handicap chase

Run in class a chase

Won at least a class 2+ chase

Placed in class a+ handicap chase if run in a handicap

Won over 2 and half miles

145+ RPR if run this season

140+ RPR lifetime over fences

Form over CD

2-3 seasons chasing

Won this season if run

Using this 9/10 winners have scored at least 14.5/17, the exception being the evergreen Cyfor Malta.

This year the top scorers are;

17 - Great Endeavour

16 - Sunnyhillboy

15 - Little Josh

However, being  a bit more lenient (for example I upgraded Pigeon Island on the critera "max run in 2 handicap chases", because he's run in 3 but in one of them he fell and he didn't have blinkers on, so it was hard for the handicapper to assess him") the results are as follows...

17 - Great Endeavour and Sunnyhillboy

15.5 - Little Josh

14.5 - Long Run, Edgebriar, Catch Me, Pigeon Island, Fisher Bridge

Dealing with a few of the main contenders first...

Long Run

Could easily bolt up but is very hard to put up at the price (3/1f) in such a competitive handicap as it's hard not to seeing him hit a fence or two. 

His runs over British fences last season earned him the following comments....

"not fluent at many fences"

"not fluent 5th, hit next"

"blundered 6th, mistakes 12th, 16th and 2 out"

Also added to that the fact that 5 year olds have a poor record in the race, especially jumping round with Chapoturgeon, Tatenen, Granit Jack and Taranis all coming to grief when fancied 5yos recently - it's very hard to see him putting in a perfect round of jumping. As such, he really can't be put up as a bet. Also the finishing position of those running off an OR of 155+ in the last 10 years is 60PP60F54. 

Sunnyhillboy

I would really fancy this one apart from the lack of run. The trainer has described him as 'being in badly need of a run' and his trainer has had 10 winners in the last fortnight but none of them have been first time out and I'm struggling to think of any first time out winners he's had this season (bar a few NHF races). Also he's drifting in the market which isn't encouraging and is easily enough passed over. However, i'd say he's the most likely winner of the Boylesports at this point.

Little Josh

Had a hard race under a fortnight ago and still even though his jumping was good there it is still a question mark. Also he front runs and there could be a lot of competition for that role in this race with Max Max, Tchico Polos, Fingeronthepulse, The Sawyer and Pickamus all liking to role on in front. His trainer also stated a while back that Pigeon Island was one of his selections for the race.

Selections

Great Endeavour

Not hard to see why he's a selection being the ultimate stats pick, being an unexposed 2nd season chaser with form all ready over the CD. Won far easier than the margin suggests at the festival, travelling like the best horse by far before idling, and is only raised 7lbs for that (seems fair considering Edgebriar has gone up 8lbs for his october run). Form hasn't worked out too badly, with Fromdawntodusk franking it massively at the Aintree festival. Is said to have progressed since the spring and his trainer's family have a cracking record in this race so will surely be spot on. Off 10st 4lbs he is sure to go very very close.

Pigeon Island

The last 10 winners in running descriptions have been...

. Held up in midfield

. Chased leaders

. Held up in rear

. Held up in last place

. Pressed leader

. Held up in last place

. Held up in midfield

. In touch

. Behind

. Held up in rear

Seems it pays to be held up and especially in this years race with all the pace in it I definitely would mind to be on one popping round the back. The obvious ones are Can't Buy Time, Long Run and Pigeon Island. 

There are many things going for Pigeon Island

. Loves the track and has tonnes of experience over it - He won the grand annual and his form over fences here is F222F13

. Step up in trip from last 3 runs should help. Just about got away with it in the GA, but has struggled last 2 runs. his form over 2 and a half read 31321113322F. 

. Runs off a feather weight - Not sure who rides it yet - but i'd guess either Sam will ride it and it'll be off 9st 11 or Paddy will sweat down to his min weight (10st), if he does i'd definitely take note.

. Doesn't look horrendously handicapped, being off a mark only 6lbs higher than GA (though will running off 9lbs higher as he'll be out of the handicap by 3lbs). At his peak was rated 9lbs higher over hurdles.

. Trainer has a great record at this meeting, and stated a while back this was Pigeon Island's aim and it was his main hope. Also you'd expect the blinkers to be back on.

It's not hard to see him popping round the back off a feather weight, and with the nature of the race he is a massive price at 30s on betfair. The other non stats horse to note could be Can't Buy Time especially if AP is on.

Suggestions

1.5pt E/W Great Endeavour 5/1 (1/4, 1-2-3-4) Coral

1 pt E/W Pigeon Island Betfair - Win 30, Place 5.3

30/10/2010 - Wetherby and Ascot

1.50 Ascot - Divy 0.5pt EW 50-1 (BOG) Stan James, Phoenix Flight 1pt Win 16-1 (BOG) Stan James

The curtain raiser at Ascot looks a competitive event but at the prices both Divy and Phoenix Flight must be of interest.

Divy on all hurdling form doesn't look overly well handicapped but on closer inspection of his overall profile is worth an interest at 50-1. He was a very high quality bumper horses 2 seasons ago. He only finished 1/4l behind Frascati Park (placed in four grade 2s over hurdles since) before bolting up by 19l on his next start. He then rounded off his season by winning comfortably with a penalty. Since then over hurdles he hasn't been great but there are 3 reasons to expect potentially massive improvement. During his 3 bumper runs such comments as 'he's a lovely big horse and very much one for the future' and a 'horse with an abundance of scope' were written, as was the fact that he was held in very high regard by his trainer. With another summer on his back it's hoped he's grown into his frame a bit more and is the finished article. Secondly, he has first time visor on so maybe they think he just hasn't been concentrating. Finally, this is the first time since his bumper days he's back on officially good ground. His full brother Divers is decent on quick ground, but has fallen apart with even the smallest mentioning of soft in the going description (much like Divy possibly last year) so improvement should be bought around via the quicker ground.

Also Phoenix Flight looks well weighted off 113 being an 83 sort on the flat. He's had 3 runs over hurdles, falling first time out before two slightly more encouraging efforts. In the first of them he split Heron Bay and Russian George (now rated 123 and 129 respectively) making his mark of 113 look very nice. He then came 4th behind Comehomequietly - interestingly though he was odds on, so obviously much more was expected.  Also the fact he's a 2 miler on the flat, means that 2 miles at Worcester was probably too sharp, and this step up to 2m3f should suit.

4.50 Ascot -Panjo Bere 0.5pt EW 16-1 (BOG) - Victor Chandler


Panjo Bere absolutely adores the track with form figures of 3151. With 2/2 at the distance. Both times over further he weakened when going well around the 2 mile mark. One especially good performance was in the Amlin Chase behind Albertas Run last year, when he was going as well as anything apart from Albertas Run before weakening from 2nd to 5th in the short home straight. He then won off a 3lb lower mark to the useful Imsingtheblues back over 2 miles.  Also he's won 2/3 times on his first start of the season in Britain and last year was heavily gambled on in the Haldon Gold Cup so obviously much more was expected. He goes well for this claimer and off 11st 5 should go close. Oiseau De Nuit is a danger, but at the prices i'd much rather be on Panjo. Also Panjo Bere goes well on good ground with figures of 1215.

2.50 Wetherby - Tidal Bay 2pts Win 3-1 (BOG) - Will Hill


Comes out second at the weights by 2lbs to Duc De Regniere, however i think there has to be a bit of a doubt about that one getting a truely run 3m1f as well as Tidal Bay. Tidal Bay goes very well fresh and should appreciate the good ground. Of the rest you'd think the only one with enough class to challenge the big two would be Fair Along.

29/10/2010 - Wetherby 3.20 Bet 365 Handicap Chase (Listed)

Mister McGoldrick - 2pts E/W @ 7/1 (BOG)


The evergreen Mister McGoldrick makes his seasonal reappearance and a chance should be taken on him to take the spoils at an attractive looking 7/1.


1. He goes incredibly well fresh


His record fresh since 2002 reads 11165153. However, also his last 2 seasonal reappearances are much better than the form figure suggests. Last time he came 3rd over an inadequate trip and on softer ground than ideal, yet still produced an RPR of 150 (joint best of that season). 2 years ago he was only beaten 5l in the Old Roan off a mark of 160 and ran an RPR of 154 (best of season).  Also his trainer has been quoted in her pre-season stable tour as saying he's "working very well" so a top run should hopefully be expected.


2. He loves the track


If ever a track belonged to a horse in the modern era of jump racing you'd be pushed not to give it to Mister McGoldrick and Wetherby. His form figures at the track are 114111111477.  With form not with good in the going description 41111141.


3. Quicker ground is key for him these days


Although he used to go on soft ground, it seems this day like many other horses (eg Yeats) as they get older prefer better ground. Since April 2007 he's run 14 times on ground with 'good' in the description short of 3 miles over fences, and everytime he's recorded an RPR of at least 142. With the majority of them over 148.


4. He seems well handicapped


He runs off 139 today, which is his lowest mark since his novice days. Also he has a good 5lb claimer on in the shape of Shane Byrne who he gets on really well with, so effectively he's running off 134. Even last season he showed he can run to a good mark when he gets conditions to suit like today. For example he was only beaten 5l in the Festival plate off an 8lb higher mark (taking into account the claimer). That's a very strong bit of form with the only horse to finish above him to come out is From Dawn to Dusk, who won a big handicap next time out and is now rated 13lbs higher. Also the 1st and 2nd are near the top of the market in the upcoming PaddyPower Gold Cup.


5. The Competition all have question marks next to them in some respect


Lease Lend - Has gone up 16lbs for his 3 wins last season and struggled when upped in class to a similar race last time. Also he has quicker ground to contened with. However, he hasn't looked back on the whole since hold up tactics were introduced and with a lot of pace in the race (Mr McG, Frankie Figg, Soulard) he is respected.

According to Pete - Not sure how good he'll be fresh - usually trainer has warmed him up on the flat where he usually gets well beaten first time out. Ground could also said to be quicker than ideal.

Soulard - First time out, competition up front, market very negative.

Frankie Figg - Hasn't shown that much over orthodox fences (usually seen over national ones) and his completion record over both isn't great. Even over plain fences his record reads F133F353. Competition up front as well today.

My Moment - Trip a big question mark, usually comes on for first run, hammered last 3 chase starts.

Star of Germany - Shown nothing for a while, trainer not in great form.

Qulinton - Probably the main danger, but better handicapped horses in the race. Should however be suited by drop in trip.

Neptune Equester - Up in the weights for form that hasn't worked out that well. Also has looked a stayer so the drop down in trip for his first run of the season looks like it won't suit.



With so many doubts about the competition you'd have to think Mr McGoldrick will definitely be there or thereabouts and so a chance should be taken on him at 7/1 with everything in his favour.

Result


3rd @ 7/1 - Return of +0.8 pts

Running total +1.3pts

15th October 2010 - Cheltenham Showcase Meeting

The 2010-2011 Cheltenham season gets underway today with the showcase - although not of the same substance of many of the other Cheltenham meetings there are still plenty of talented individuals on show both today and tomorrow. Although I have no big fancies, below are a few longer priced horses (along with a shorter one!) who i will be taking a small chance with


5.05 - Lucky Luk - 0.5pt E-W @ 28-1 (BOG)

In a very open race, where any amount could win, this one seems massively overpriced to me. Although described as 'basically slow' by RP a course like Cheltenham suits him and usually in amateur races like this they go off a bit quick which can only help his chances.

All his best form has been shown on testing/undulating tracks, which of course Cheltenham is, so a chance is taken he can produce some of his best form here. At Towcester/Exeter (both testing/undulating tracks) over 3 miles or more his form reads 1131511. The 3rd wasn't even that bad a performance as the winner is now rated some 24lbs higher.

He's beaten some good horses in those runs as well - in his last run he beat River Indus - who through that horse has a better chance than Scots Dragoon (much shorter in betting), and also Sea Wall (holds Marblehead through him)

He'll love the quick ground and importantly he has always gone well after a break before, winning twice after a 6 month break off.

The one negative is his jockey, which is why stakes are being kept to a minimum, as as far as I'm aware it's his first ride over fences. However, of course he does have a 7lb claim to help putting this fellow off just 10st 7.

2.45 - Frontier Dancer - 1pt Win @ 12-5

Seems massively overpriced to me due to the fact

1. He's best in at the weights on his best hurdles form last season
2. He's got chase experience - Favourite/3rd favourite don't
3. He's race fit - As above

Keighley's also usually take a run to get fit and I wasn't a fan of the Nicholls horse last year, so at the prices he seems an obvious bet.

3.20 - Raslan - 1pt E-W @ 16/1 (BOG)
3.20 - Kings Forest - 0.5pt @ 15/2 (BOG)


In a race in which many won't be fully tuned up (Amber Brook, Buena Vista, Lough Derg) a chance can be taken on these two. Raslan is taken to run a big race and improve his record with both a tongue tie and visor on. Won very well when they were put on two starts back (should hold Battle Group in my opinion) and then came 2nd to a very unexposed sort in a good race last time. Hasn't run to well at the course before, but has come 3rd on one of the few times the conditions would have suited him.

A small chance is also taken on Kings Forest who ran a much better race than is at first obvious last time. However, I'm not totally sure he'll stay so only a small bet is advised. If he does, he'll go very close.

Others to note


. Calgary Bay would eat these if fit - but that's a big question mark. If not Midnight Chase could be the one to capitalise

. Last race seems very tough and I'd be opposing the favourite Astracad. I'd give a chance to the Nicholls one who has apparently been working with Escortmen, and also Higgys Boy. He was backed into 6/1 in a tougher race last time suggesting they think he's capable of this mark, and with the blinkers back on could run a big race.

Good luck.

RESULTS

Lucky Luk - 5th : - 1pt
Frontier Dancer - 2nd: -1pt
Raslan - 3rd: + 3pts
King's Forest - 8th : - 0.5pt

In others to note, Calgary Bay was blatantly unfit (came there down the hill looking a big danger and blew up) and as suggest Midnight Chase was the one that took advantage at 6/1. Organisiteur also ran a very nice to come 2nd at 7/1. Astracad proved me wrong and won the race at 9/4f, with Higgy's Boy disappointing. It must be noted, that the time of the race was favourable compared to the 4yo race the next day (won by the ultra impressive Clerk's Choice), and the top 3 should all be kept on the right side of in their next races. Organisiteur was outpaced and is interestingly entered over 2m4 this coming weekend.

Total: +0.5pt

2010 Cheltenham Festival Review - Day 4

JCB Triumph Hurdle

Soldatino and Barry Geraghty 

Winner - Soldatino

. As already highlighted by the Fred Winter, French breds have a cracking record in the juvenile winners at the festival. Soldatino was one of just four in the field, and was returned at the shortest of the four at 6/1.
. Had already won a good trial (The Adonis) well under a penalty
. Geraghty after that race said he must be a good horse as he quickened twice out of soft ground. Also he said they hadn't done much with him since he came to the yard, so he was bound to come on tons for the experience.


County Hurdle

Thousand Stars gives Katie Walsh has second winner of the week

Winner - Thousand Stars

. Had a very progressive profile having won two of his last three. He had come unstuck last time, although the RP in running comments didn't give any reason for positivity, there actual analysis said about him 'Another to note was Thousand Stars who looked to be travelling like a winner just behind the leaders before the second last, but he overjumped that flight and was soon in trouble'.
. Usually Irish Horses handicap marks are inflated when they come over to the festival, however, his was not, only being 1lb higher than his Irish mark.

Disappointment - Tito Bustillo

. To be honest he was a bit unlucky being badly hampered. However, before the race experience and his handicap mark were always going to be a worry. He was stepping up from novice company into a big field, and his handicap mark of 136 seemed harsh given the form he'd achieved so far.

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

Berties Dream returns after springing a shock

Winner - Berties Dream

. Had good course form being 3rd behind Tell Massini at the November meeting. That day he was beaten 9l but he was giving Tell Massini 7lbs, leaving him theoretically 2lbs to find. In this race Tell Massini was 10/3f, yet Berties Dream was 33/1 - So it was obvious where the value lied.
. Had a lot of experience already with 14 runs over hurdles. Also he had already stepped out of the novice ranks last time and so this 19 runner field was perhaps going to be more to his liking than his inexperienced rivals
. He had achieved the 4th best RPR in the field (Behind Restless Harry (F), Shinrock Paddy (PU) and Tell Massini (PU)) and was within 3lbs of all of them. There prices were 8/1, 8/1 and 10/3f respectively, so once again it was obvious where the value lied.

Gold Cup

Imperial Commander goes clear at the last in the 2010 Gold Cup

Winner - Imperial Commander

. Tons of course form having won 4 chases already at the course
. Another horse like Berties Dream who represented value - He was only beaten a nose by Kauto Star in November yet he was 10x the price.
. Great record fresh - almost unbeaten

Foxhunters Chase

Sam Twiston-Davies rides Baby Run to Festival Glory

Winner - Baby Run

. Great course form - never unplaced at the course
. Had run the top RPR in the field that season
. Still relatively unexposed in the sphere with only 9 chase starts.


Martin Pipe Conditionals Handicap Hurdle

Pause and Clause lands the penultimate event at the 2010 Festival

Winner - Pause and Clause

. Like Buena Vista - He was running of the same mark that he had been the year before when going close. He was running in a different race yes, but it was over the same distance. He was 3rd beaten 2l off 137 in the Coral Cup in 2009, and was running here off 137 again. This was theoretically a small step down in class, also in 2009 he'd only had 3 hurdle starts, so there was plenty of reasons why he could improve on that run.
. He had run well this year in race that wouldn't have suited (2 x too far, 1 x chase) and looked to be coming to form.

Grand Annual

Pigeon Island and Paddy Brennan

Winner - Pigeon Island

. Came near the top of trends
. Good course form
, Light weight as the ground softened was always going to be useful
. Connections were in great form - having already put in a double on the day.

Failure - You're The Top

. All his form was RH (all 5 wins) going Left Handed 363F
. Inexperienced with only 3 chase starts, all in small fields

2010 Cheltenham Festival Review - Day 3

Jewson Novice Handicap Chase

Copper Bleu jumps the last ahead of Othermix

Winner - Copper Bleu

. Was always thought to have scope to be a chaser

. Ran his best race over hurdles at the course in the Supreme last year

. Was running off a 4lbs lower mark than he would over hurdles, on hurdle ratings he was 2nd best at the weights - once again showing hurdling form is relevant to a degree over hurdles

. Had a tongue tie on the first time

. Step up in trip was sure to suit on breeding

Failure - Rivaliste

. Wasn't overally well handicapped on form - up 6lbs for a 2nd, and up 13lbs on a win

. By far the quickest ground he'd ever un on

. Only a 5 year old

Conclusions

. Look for first time aids, especially tongue ties

. Once again - hurdle form is relevant to a degree in novice chases

Pertemps Final

Buena Vista finally gets his deserved win at the festival

Winner - Buena Vista

. He was back to his favoured conditions - 1) Back on quicker ground 2) Headgear On - all his runs that season he'd either had the headgear off or the ground had been soft. Now back on good ground with blinkers on, he was always going to improve on this seasons form massively

. Was back to the same mark as last year 133 - that day he found one too good, Kayf Aramis, who was now running off a 20lb mark, yet he was allowed to run of the same mark. Another example was, Pause and Clause who won the Martin Pipe. He ran off the same mark as he won off, when a close 3rd in the Coral Cup (arguably a stronger race) over the same C+D one year earlier.

. Also he had a useful 3lb claimer on Hadden Frost - which means he was actually running off a 3lb lower mark than when he was runner up

Failure - Alfie Sherrin 

. Was said to always need time between his races

. Still very inexperienced for one his age with only 3 runs over hurdles and 4 runs in total over rules

. Had a massive 12lb hike in weights for last race

Conclusion

. Once again look for those who have form around their handicap mark - especially over the course and perhaps even more at the festival 

. Check for reapplication of aids


Ryanair Chase

Albertas Run clambers over the last

Winner - Albertas Run

. Great course form - 2 wins from 3 over fences, including a RSA win

. Would love the quick ground - form on good ground since going over obstacles was 112113231. Included in those defeats was a second to Kauto Star in the 2008 King George.

. From a handicapping perspective off level weights he was very much up there. 4 of the 13 runner field were above him but there were some possible reasons why you could disregard most of them. Deep Purple - Best on flat tracks according to trainer pre race and said earlier in season he felt he'd be 'forced' into a cheltenham entry by the owners. Voy Por Ustedes - Looked badly on the downgrade, hammered at Newbury last time. Petit Robin - Had achieved it in one run over 2 miles.

Failure - Tranquil Sea

. You'd have to put his defeat down to the ground - most his form had come on softer ground

. Also he had flopped at the two previous festivals

. Was only 9/13 on handicap marks - yet was 2nd favourite

Conclusions

. Check handicap marks in grade 1s

. Course/Festival form is a bonus

. Look for those who will be suited by better ground

World Hurdle

Big Bucks retains his World Hurdle Crown

Winner - Big Bucks

. Not much that needs saying, won it the year before and held all before him in the current season

Byrne Group Plate

Great Endeavour provides Dany Cook with a maiden festival win

Winner - Great Endeavour

.  Another one who was running off a lower handicap mark than he would over hurdles - however, in this case it was only 1lb.

. Was always seen as a chaser by connections, being a PTP winner.

. Had been outspeeded in small field races over the winter, and a stiffer test was always going to suit him better.

. Had one bit of good course form when 3rd behind Lie Forrit at the open.

. Could have been argued better ground was going to suit him - had won 3/4 previous starts with the word 'good' in the going.


FWKM

Ballabriggs clears the last before faltering up the hill

Winner - Ballabriggs

. Had won 2/2 this season over fences - both extremely easily and was only up 10lbs for the later win.

. Connections had won the race previously with Cloudy Lane.

. Although he was 9, he was one of the least exposed horses in the field. He'd run 10 times over fences but only two of those had been in the past 2 years