. Age 8-10
. Max 1 run this season
. 10+ runs lifetime
. Won over fences
. 4+ Wins lifetime
. Placed in class 2+ chase
. Placed in Class 2+ Handicap chase, or in highest grade handicap chase tried
. 140+ RPR over fences
. 132+ RPR this season if run
. Run 17+ days ago
. Top 4 last time out (unless graded race)
Using these trends all of the last ten winners scored at least 9 out of 11, with all but one of them scoring 10+ out of 11.
The top scorers this year are as follows:
11 - Notre Pere, Whatuthink
10 - Hello Bud, Maljimar
9 - Royal Rosa
Hello Bud
Has an obvious chance of his rapidly declining mark, but I'd be inclined to take him on on his first run of the season being 12 going on 13. He won first time out 2 years ago, but apart from that he has generally needed it first time out. He has also faded badly on his 2 runs over the course which is surprising given he's won a Scottish National. Given these two points and the fact the ground would be softer than he cares for, there are surely better priced selections than this one at near favouritism.
Maljimar
Another one who's up there in the betting and who goes well fresh. However he still probably has question marks over the distance and is probably better at a shorter trip. There too has always been slight question marks over his jumping with 4 fall/unseats to his name in his chasing career, including over these big fences. Also his mark doesn't seem overally kind considering his form off a higher mark than his 2nd in the 2009 Will Hill Chase (arguably his best run) is U7P25F (excluding his X-C run). He has one win to his name since March 2007 and that was off a 16lb lower mark and so has to being taken on too.
Claiming Jockeys
Although they have had 2 winners in the last 10 years inexperienced jockeys don't have a great record in the race. One winner was Ardent Scout and Dom Elsworth who had already finished the course twice (the other was Liam Heard and Eurotrek).
Looking closer though they have a very poor record at completing the course, which surely has to be something to be considered for anyone thinking of backing such a jockey.
In the last 10 years 124 horses have run with non claiming jockeys on, of these 42 fell or unseat = 34%
However in the same period 26 have run with claiming jockey, of which 16 fell or unseat = 62%.
Horses ridden in the race this year by claimers are; Gullible Gordon (9/1), Whatuthink (16/1), One Cool Cookie (25/1), Meanus Dandy (8/1), Hello Bud (9/1), Au Courant (66/1). As you can see 3 of these are in the top 6 in the betting, the past suggests only one of these will complete.
Selections
Notre Pere
Has been entered in the national the last couple of years I believe, so connections have obviously always thought he'd hopefully take to these fences. This time last year he was rated 167, yet he gets to run of 151 on Sunday. Had a poor season last year, but looked to be creeping back to his best on his seasonal debut a few weeks back. He travelled well before blowing up and staying on again over an inadequate trip. The big weight should hopefully not bee too much of a problem as 3 times in the last 10 years the top weights have managed to outclass them (Eurotrek, Vic Venturi and Young Kenny). Interestingly also the last 2 winners have both been Irish trained and wearing cheek pieces, which he does. The one worry is the ground. At the moment it's soft with heavy places around the Canal Turn, however, with 2 dry days predicted for Liverpool you can't be sure what it will be like. I've already backed him at 14/1 last night, but would leave him alone at 9/1 for the time being until we know what the weather will be like.
Whatuthink
The other horse with the full stats profile, however you have to be worried about his jumping especially with a 7lb claimer on. However, he has gone well for the jockey before when 3rd in the Irish National and taking into account the jockey he'll only be carrying 10st 8.He too is Irish Trained and came 2nd in the race that last years winner Vic Venturi won as his prep. With his touch of class (placed in grade 1 over hurdles/won a grade 2) and his stamina (3rd in an Irish National) he has to go very close off 10st 8 if he gets around. Another one who is adaptable with regards to ground, but he needs at least some cut.
Royal Rosa
Came 3rd in this race but there are a few reasons to think he can go a bit better this year.
1. He's running of a 3lb lower mark
2. Ran much his best seasonal debut for a while this season and he always improves for his first run. Last year he ran to an RPR of 116 on his first run then 128 in this. This year he ran to a 11lb higher mark (127) and if he got anywhere that much improvement he should go very close.
3. Has cheekpieces back on. Although he failed to improve for them when he first wore them a while back, he's said to keep a bit to himself these days, so hopefully they might bring out a bit of improvement.
4. Usually comes from behind - this year there are 8 runners compared to 17, so hopefully with a bit of stronger pace, he should be able to stay on well.
This horse has never fallen and off 10st he should hopefully being staying on well at the business end off his feather weight.
Bets
Royal Rosa - 1pt E/W 20/1 - Will Hill
Whatuthink - 1pt Win 16/1 - Ladbrokes
Notre Pere - To be confirmed when the state of the ground is known on sunday.
FINAL BETS
Royal Rosa - 1pt E/W 20/1 Will Hill, 0.5pt E/W 16/1 Freely available
Whatuthink - 1pt Win 16/1 Ladbrokes
Notre Pere - 1pt Win 10/1 Ladbrokes
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