Troytown Handicap Chase Preview

Had a quick look at this and below will give a short write up on my thoughts. The trends are;

. Age 7-8
. OR 118-135
. Max 11st
. 1-2 runs in current season
. 6+ chase runs
. Max 4 handicap chase runs
. 14+ lifetime runs
. Won over 22f+
. Not won a handicap chase in current season
. Won a chase
. Won 3+ race in lifetime
. Placed in 17k+ handicap if run in handicaps
. Completed maximum 3 times in 3m+ handicap chases
. Placed within 5lbs of current mark if run in handicaps
. 125+ RPR season
. 135+ RPR lifetime
. Won at navan, if run
. Top last time out if finished
. 2nd season chaser
. Won in 14 + field

Of the above 20 stats, all of the last 10 winners scored on at least 15, with 9 of them scoring at least 16.

This year's top scorers are;

17 - Hangover
16 - Siegemaster
15 - Got Attitude, Jack The Bus, Hold The Pin

Selections


Siegemaster


My main selection for the race, the main negative against him is his weight/rating but he has a handy 5lb claimer to help him out. Already placed in 2 similar races last year including off a 1lb lower mark (both races the form has been franked). Had other bits of great form last year including when not too far away in a grade 1 at punchestown. He was only 4l behind Denman and Cooldine and gets in off a mark of 145 here (140 if you take his claimer). Started this season very well when not too far behind China Rock/Sizing Europe first time out. Those two have of course gone on to frank the form when only being beaten around 4l by Kauto Star on their next start. That race was over an inadequate trip and on ground quicker than ideal and is said to have put him 'spot on' for this. He too also has good course form winning a grade 2 novice chase over course and distance on testing ground. Back with cheek pieces on that he didn't have first time out he's sure to go close.

Hangover


Can't leave him out being top on the stats, has some good form in the past including being closing tied in with the main selection Siegemaster behind Whinestone Boy last year. Also you would have thought Davy Russell could have ridden Siegemaster if he wanted so he is off obvious interest. Interestingly too he has won on his 3rd start on all of his 3 seasons so far, so maybe he just needs a few runs to get going?

Jack the Bus

Of the ones down the bottom my fancy would be this lad. He's relatively unexposed over the trip with only 3 runs over 23f or more. On the first in a novice hurdle he beat the smart Oscar Time by 2l giving him 8lbs. Then when stepped up in trip over fences he found only the very unexposed saddlers storm too good in a field of 20. Then last time he came 5th when connections said he would have come 2nd but for a mistake 2 out. That was over 3m4f and the drop back to 3 miles off the same mark should see him run a big race.

Bets


Siegemaster 1.5pt E/W 16/1 Victor Chandler
Hangover 1pt Win 20/1 Stan James
Jack The Bus 1pt Win SP


****Hangover NR****


Updated Bets

Siegemaster 1.5pt E/W 16/1 Victor Chandler

Jack The Bus 1pt Win SP, 0.5pt E/W 14/1 Ladbrokes