1. Satwa Pearl - 5yo Mare - Ed Dunlop
Satwa Pearl as a yearling cost 500,000 Euros and I believe that this summer she can finally start to pay her way. At the beginning of this season she was trained in France by Jean De Roualle and opened up her campaign with an easy win in a lady riders race at Deauville. Second that day was Sand Skier of Mark Johnston who is a capable 90 horse on this day (hasn't shown it in his two starts since though). 4th Ideology has since improved by 19lbs according to RPRs, the 5th Darizi ran a 13lb better race next time (only beaten 3l in a Grade 3 last time). Though rather than all these horses improving drastically, I believe this form has been underestimated by the handicapper.
Since then she has been transferred to Ed Dunlop and came 2nd first time out behind Piano. That day however she completely blew start and lost many lengths before staying on at the death when the winner had flown. Only up 2lbs for that to 79, I think she's more than capable of winning a few races off that kind of mark. Her two siblings achieved RPRs of 98 and 107, another reason to expect improvement from her.
Entries: Sandown - 2nd June
2. Damask - 2yo Filly - Richard Hannon
Damask made her debut this afternoon at Newmarket and although she finished down the field, there was plenty to take from the performance. Backed before hand from 6/1 into 9/2 she traveled strongly and was possibly last off the bridle before being allowed to come home under hands and heels. However, this does not tell the whole story. This afternoon there has been a dreadful draw bias at Newmarket with all the winners over sprint trips coming from low draws. Those drawn high have had no chance and in my opinion Damask put in the best performance of anything drawn high all afternoon. She has no chance from her draw and could be a bigger price than expected next time as many people looking at the bare form will say she "flopped". A 110,000 Euro yearling, 3 of her 4 siblings have achieved RPRs of at least 97 (97, 103 and 114) and a maiden looks a formality before possibly going onto better things.
3. Balcarce Nov - 6yo Horse - Tom Tate
I have put him in the list as I think he has a big handicap written all over him when he gets his favoured ground. He's rated 96 at the moment which is some 9lbs below his top form in this country. Tom Tate has often stated he needs it like a road and his form on Good to Firm ground stands up to close inspection. His form on GF since reaching these shores is 523203. Achieving RPRs of 107,110, 109, 109, 76 and 106 - which suggests he has something to spare over the handicapper when he next runs on it.
For example on his one start on it this year he finished 3rd beaten only 1/2l off level weights by St Moritz who is now rated 107 after a listed 2nd and a big handicap win off 104. 2nd that day was Off Chance who was only beaten 2l off a mark of 100 at York last time. Both these point to Balcarce Nov running to a mark of 105. Since then he flopped on Good ground at Ripon (trainer blamed watered ground) and then ran a nice race on softer ground than ideal at Chester last time.
Obvious targets for him would be the Royal Hunt Cup (though he has flopped twice at Ascot before, so it might not be the ideal target) or perhaps the big 1 mile handicaps at Glorious Goodwood or York's Ebor meeting. The totesport handicap mile (?) at Goodwood would be of particular interest as it has a great record for front runners.
Entries: Nottingham - 1st June
4. Bobbie Magern - 6yo Gelding - Nigel Twiston-Davies
The first of two horses over jumps I'm going to mention and he is down to run in the next hour in the 19.55 at Stratford. However, I'm not 100% this will be his day due to T-D shocking form at present, but he is definitely a lot better than his mark of 106. I will still be getting involved to a medium stake though E/W.
He is of course a sibling to both Ollie and Billy Magern as well as the game Petit Margot. This is a family who love quick ground. He has been handicapped on soft ground form and hence I believe he is very well handicapped. He has only encountered good ground so far once when he was only beaten a short head on his first hurdle start. Since then he has disappointed three times on soft ground but I can easily forgive these runs, especially last time (has dropped 7lbs in weight). His full siblings were rated 163, 137 and 128 at their peak. They also appreciated 3 mile+ trips so the 27f tonight should be up his trip.
Interestingly he's entered up a few times over the next week, so maybe they're trying to get in a win and then run under a penalty next week.
Entries: Stratford - Tonight, Cartmel - 30th May, 1st June
5. Nostringsattached - 10yo Gelding - Jonjo O'Neill
Another horse who needs good ground, he's very well handicapped after 3 runs in soft ground in the winter. His OR now is 119, which looks very favourable as he's placed off 136 before and won a Listed handicap off 127. He made his comeback at Worcester last week and was noticeably very easy to back in the 5 minutes before the off, drifting alarmingly.
During the race he cruised into contention under AP after hunting his way through the pack. He looked all over the winner before AP, lets just say, took it very easy on him, not resorting to the whip at all. Putting two and two together, I'd imagine he wasn't fit that day and connections have an eye on something else this summer. It's not as if he doesn't find much either as he had the benefit of a McCoy never say die attitude when taking a big race in the summer of 2009 at Market Rasen.
Now he's had a run to put him fit, he should go very close next time and even if he doesn't, with his connections I'd definitely keep an eye on him over the summer months.
Entries: Ffos Las - 31st May
Friday 27 May 2011
Wednesday 11 May 2011
6.20 Kempton - 11/5/2011
In an open looking heat there's one that takes my eye and being massive price I think he is worth a fair size investment. The horse in question is DINGAAN.
He's 33/1 outsider of the field at the moment and it wouldn't surprise me if he headed out to 40/1 at some point (heading out that way on Betfair).
The RP write up of him is "Would have laughed at these rivals in his prime and retained enough ability to land a 6f claimer here in November; gone the wrong way since joining current stable though and don´t need much encouragement to look elsewhere."
The first half is obviously very encouraging for a horse at 33/1 and although the latter half is not so I still think there's plenty of room for having a punt on him at a price.
Very smart at his prime (rated 94 after winning a CD handicap off 88) he runs today off 62. He even came 2nd over CD off a 18lb higher mark just this October gone.
He has shown a liking for conditions at Kempton with his form over course and distance reading 1,7,1,3,2 recording RPRs of 94,81,89,89,86 in the process. Recording an RPR of anything in the 70s should see him win here. Also he won over 6f at Kempton in November.
Since being claimed out of that race things have taken a turn for the worse but I think there's a good chance that his 3 month break could have done him the world of good. 15 months ago he returned off a 4 month break (after a few disappointing efforts) to bounce back and win a course and distance handicap off a 20lb higher mark.
Even his penultimate effort at Lingfield isn't horrendous with an RPR of 7lbs above his OR. Stoneacres Gareths RPRs in his last 3 runs have been +10,+6,+4 above his OR and he's 7/2 favourite. Back at Kempton and after a small to break I think he's sure to improve and with Foxtrot Alpha hopefully setting a solid place with a few others who like to be up there behind him it's not inconcievable that Dingaan could bounce back and swoop late.
1.5pt E/W Dingaan 33/1
He's 33/1 outsider of the field at the moment and it wouldn't surprise me if he headed out to 40/1 at some point (heading out that way on Betfair).
The RP write up of him is "Would have laughed at these rivals in his prime and retained enough ability to land a 6f claimer here in November; gone the wrong way since joining current stable though and don´t need much encouragement to look elsewhere."
The first half is obviously very encouraging for a horse at 33/1 and although the latter half is not so I still think there's plenty of room for having a punt on him at a price.
Very smart at his prime (rated 94 after winning a CD handicap off 88) he runs today off 62. He even came 2nd over CD off a 18lb higher mark just this October gone.
He has shown a liking for conditions at Kempton with his form over course and distance reading 1,7,1,3,2 recording RPRs of 94,81,89,89,86 in the process. Recording an RPR of anything in the 70s should see him win here. Also he won over 6f at Kempton in November.
Since being claimed out of that race things have taken a turn for the worse but I think there's a good chance that his 3 month break could have done him the world of good. 15 months ago he returned off a 4 month break (after a few disappointing efforts) to bounce back and win a course and distance handicap off a 20lb higher mark.
Even his penultimate effort at Lingfield isn't horrendous with an RPR of 7lbs above his OR. Stoneacres Gareths RPRs in his last 3 runs have been +10,+6,+4 above his OR and he's 7/2 favourite. Back at Kempton and after a small to break I think he's sure to improve and with Foxtrot Alpha hopefully setting a solid place with a few others who like to be up there behind him it's not inconcievable that Dingaan could bounce back and swoop late.
1.5pt E/W Dingaan 33/1
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