Wednesday 11 May 2011

6.20 Kempton - 11/5/2011

In an open looking heat there's one that takes my eye and being massive price I think he is worth a fair size investment. The horse in question is DINGAAN.

He's 33/1 outsider of the field at the moment and it wouldn't surprise me if he headed out to 40/1 at some point (heading out that way on Betfair).

The RP write up of him is "Would have laughed at these rivals in his prime and retained enough ability to land a 6f claimer here in November; gone the wrong way since joining current stable though and don´t need much encouragement to look elsewhere."

The first half is obviously very encouraging for a horse at 33/1 and although the latter half is not so I still think there's plenty of room for having a punt on him at a price.

Very smart at his prime (rated 94 after winning a CD handicap off 88) he runs today off 62. He even came 2nd over CD off a 18lb higher mark just this October gone.



He has shown a liking for conditions at Kempton with his form over course and distance reading 1,7,1,3,2 recording RPRs of 94,81,89,89,86 in the process. Recording an RPR of anything in the 70s should see him win here. Also he won over 6f at Kempton in November.

Since being claimed out of that race things have taken a turn for the worse but I think there's a good chance that his 3 month break could have done him the world of good. 15 months ago he returned off a 4 month break (after a few disappointing efforts) to bounce back and win a course and distance handicap off a 20lb higher mark.

Even his penultimate effort at Lingfield isn't horrendous with an RPR of 7lbs above his OR. Stoneacres Gareths RPRs in his last 3 runs have been +10,+6,+4 above his OR and he's 7/2 favourite. Back at Kempton and after a small to break I think he's sure to improve and with Foxtrot Alpha hopefully setting a solid place with a few others who like to be up there behind him it's not inconcievable that Dingaan could bounce back and swoop late.



1.5pt E/W Dingaan 33/1

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