Thursday 18 August 2011

Eventmasters.co.uk Handicap Stakes

Can't help but think BRAVEHEART MOVE is an absolutely massive price at about 33/1.
Firstly the booking of Robert Winston looks significant. This year he's had 7 rides for Geoffrery Harker. Resulting in 3 winners and another place.
 
He was trained by Sir Mark Presscot from 2008-2009 before famously being bought for 150,000 and sent to Jonjo O'Neills to go hurdler. After four defeats he was senting back to the flat last season. After being beaten out of sight on his seasonal debut he was then only beaten 4l over an inadequate 10f at Goodwood. Stepped back up to 14f he came 3rd in a very valuable end of season handicap at Haydock at 25/1.The winner Kansai Spirit is now rated 10lbs higher, the second Red Cadeux is rated 15lbs higher and Braveheart although only beaten 1l is now rated 2lbs lower than that race (91).
 
He was actually put up to 95 but was dropped to 91 after his first run for Harker this season. I wouldn't have been to worried about this run for many reasons though. Firstly, it was over 10f - way too short for him. Secondly he has run poorly 4 of his 5 runs first time out: 
 
2008 - 10/12 btn 18l, 
2009 - Won a handicap but for Sir Mark Prescott up 5f in trip so they probably would have had him fit. 
2009 hurdle - 7/9 beaten 58l, 
2010 - 12/13 btn 23l. 
2011 - 13/13 btn 11l
 
In fact compared to last years first run it was actually a very good effort (21lbs better according to RPRs). His improvements from his first runs have been 44lbs,-19lbs,35lbs and 36lbs so he obviously tends to come on a lot for the run. Also Geoffery Harker's horses tend to come on a lot for the run. He's only had two first time out winners this year compared to four that have won on their second run coming on a lot for the run. The fact Robert Winston wasn't on first time but is now should be seen as a positive.
 
Over 14f last year he stayed on really well and looked like 16f could suit (won over 13f at three). Also he's said to take a lot of driving so the step up in trip could also help in that front soon. He's said to do a lot early on, so with all the pace in the race (Exemplary and Mountain Hiker should make it a stern test), hopefully he should be able to settle in well from his plum draw of 3.
 
He's won off this mark before and as I've said was placed off 2lbs higher in a better race last year. Timeform give him a ? but his run in that 14f race last year was given 113 which would be 3rd highest in the field. Top rated by Timeform is CHILLY FILLY who could be worth a saver off a dwindling mark (came 5th in the 14f handicap off much higher mark) on his first run for Brian Ellison. ITLAAQ 
won a lot more easily than the distance suggests last time but has a poor draw.



0.75pt E/W Braveheart Move 33/1
0.5pt Win Chilly Filly 8/1

Addleshaw Goddard Stakes

Although the twenty go to post for the 3.05 at York today it is perhaps not as competitive as it first looks. Many of the field are thoroughly exposed, this is perhaps best shown by the fact that three of those at the top of the market, Harrison George, Pintura and Smarty Socks have had over 100 starts between them. Also there is only one last time out winner in the field in the form of Markazzi.

In the past this has gone to lightly raced 4 year olds or 3 year olds (however there are no 3 year olds in this year's renewal). In the last nine years the record of horses aged 5 or older is: 0 winners, 9 placed, 79 runners.  Taking this into account it seems the best place to start is the 4 year olds; Navajo Chief, Emirates Dream, Pintura, Mont Agel, Markazi, Masked Dance and Leviathan.

Navajo Chief (16), Markazzi (18), Leviathan (19) are all drawn out wide and will need a lot of luck from their respective draws. In fact only one of the last 9 winners have been drawn wider than 12 (with 6 coming out of the bottom 6 draws).

Masked Dance has been outclassed every time he's stepped up to this kind of a class, Pintura keeps on running well without getting his head in front and Mont Agel has to bounce back from two poor runs. This leaves me with EMIRATES DREAM who has a plum draw from 5.

An $850,000 purchase Goldophin would have expected him to make up to a bit more than a 98 rated handicapper and there still seems plenty of time for him to do so.

He won first time out as York as a 2 year old before running in two group 3s at the backend in France. In the first he finished 4th (doing all his best work late on) behind Buzzword and Siyouni, who went on to come 3rd and 1st in the Group 1 for 2 year old colts on Arc Day. Then when upped to a mile he finished only 1.5l behind Behkabad (gone on to win a group 1). He finished the season disappointingly at Newmarket, however it was commented then that he was a big horse and the track may not have suited him.

This being the case it is surprising that his last 4 runs have come at undulating tracks Newmarket and Goodwood. At the beginning of his 3 year old career he ran three non staying races over 11f,10f and 12f. The 10f run was especially encouraging as he ran well for a long way behind 110 rated Myplacelater and 106 rated Desert Myth.

When finally dropped to 8f with a bit of cut in the ground he bolted up at Goodwood off a 5lb lower mark with the admirable and consistent Dunno in 2nd. Two disappointing runs followed but again they were both at Newmarket. Back on a more conventional track there is every chance he can improve.

Frankie Dettori shuns him today for Invisible Man and the worry is perhaps that he runs first time out. However he won first time out as a 2yo and as a 3yo was running over a trip way too far. Saeed Bin Suroor's record this year with horses making their seasonal debut in the UK in a handicap is 4/15. However if you only look at those since the beginning of June (given more time to settle down from Dubai) the record is 041121 (50%).

At 25/1 he makes plenty of appeal. Another angle would be to perhaps take the 20/1 Paddy Power offer without Markazzi. However I am keen to take Markazzi on from his wide draw.

Another one worth a mention is Lovelace who has gone well in the hustle and bustle of these big fields in the past and has dropped to an extremely good mark. He's run OK a few times this year and it has been reported that he had a knee operation last season, so perhaps he has just been struggling on quick ground and a bit more cut will suit him. However, Dandy's horses aren't running that well at the moment, so I will probably just keep an eye on him for another day. Prime Exhibit also has a big chance on some of his form, including his second in the Lincoln last season. However, he is drawn widest of all, so although I can't put him up as a bet, I may have a couple of quid saver at 28/1.

Emirates Dream - 1pt E/W 25/1