Can't help but think BRAVEHEART MOVE is an absolutely massive price at about 33/1.
Firstly the booking of Robert Winston looks significant. This year he's had 7 rides for Geoffrery Harker. Resulting in 3 winners and another place.
He was trained by Sir Mark Presscot from 2008-2009 before famously being bought for 150,000 and sent to Jonjo O'Neills to go hurdler. After four defeats he was senting back to the flat last season. After being beaten out of sight on his seasonal debut he was then only beaten 4l over an inadequate 10f at Goodwood. Stepped back up to 14f he came 3rd in a very valuable end of season handicap at Haydock at 25/1.The winner Kansai Spirit is now rated 10lbs higher, the second Red Cadeux is rated 15lbs higher and Braveheart although only beaten 1l is now rated 2lbs lower than that race (91).
He was actually put up to 95 but was dropped to 91 after his first run for Harker this season. I wouldn't have been to worried about this run for many reasons though. Firstly, it was over 10f - way too short for him. Secondly he has run poorly 4 of his 5 runs first time out:
2008 - 10/12 btn 18l,
2009 - Won a handicap but for Sir Mark Prescott up 5f in trip so they probably would have had him fit.
2009 hurdle - 7/9 beaten 58l,
2010 - 12/13 btn 23l.
2011 - 13/13 btn 11l
In fact compared to last years first run it was actually a very good effort (21lbs better according to RPRs). His improvements from his first runs have been 44lbs,-19lbs,35lbs and 36lbs so he obviously tends to come on a lot for the run. Also Geoffery Harker's horses tend to come on a lot for the run. He's only had two first time out winners this year compared to four that have won on their second run coming on a lot for the run. The fact Robert Winston wasn't on first time but is now should be seen as a positive.
Over 14f last year he stayed on really well and looked like 16f could suit (won over 13f at three). Also he's said to take a lot of driving so the step up in trip could also help in that front soon. He's said to do a lot early on, so with all the pace in the race (Exemplary and Mountain Hiker should make it a stern test), hopefully he should be able to settle in well from his plum draw of 3.
He's won off this mark before and as I've said was placed off 2lbs higher in a better race last year. Timeform give him a ? but his run in that 14f race last year was given 113 which would be 3rd highest in the field. Top rated by Timeform is CHILLY FILLY who could be worth a saver off a dwindling mark (came 5th in the 14f handicap off much higher mark) on his first run for Brian Ellison. ITLAAQ won a lot more easily than the distance suggests last time but has a poor draw.
0.75pt E/W Braveheart Move 33/1
0.5pt Win Chilly Filly 8/1
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