Although the twenty go to post for the 3.05 at York today it is perhaps not as competitive as it first looks. Many of the field are thoroughly exposed, this is perhaps best shown by the fact that three of those at the top of the market, Harrison George, Pintura and Smarty Socks have had over 100 starts between them. Also there is only one last time out winner in the field in the form of Markazzi.
In the past this has gone to lightly raced 4 year olds or 3 year olds (however there are no 3 year olds in this year's renewal). In the last nine years the record of horses aged 5 or older is: 0 winners, 9 placed, 79 runners. Taking this into account it seems the best place to start is the 4 year olds; Navajo Chief, Emirates Dream, Pintura, Mont Agel, Markazi, Masked Dance and Leviathan.
Navajo Chief (16), Markazzi (18), Leviathan (19) are all drawn out wide and will need a lot of luck from their respective draws. In fact only one of the last 9 winners have been drawn wider than 12 (with 6 coming out of the bottom 6 draws).
Masked Dance has been outclassed every time he's stepped up to this kind of a class, Pintura keeps on running well without getting his head in front and Mont Agel has to bounce back from two poor runs. This leaves me with EMIRATES DREAM who has a plum draw from 5.
An $850,000 purchase Goldophin would have expected him to make up to a bit more than a 98 rated handicapper and there still seems plenty of time for him to do so.
He won first time out as York as a 2 year old before running in two group 3s at the backend in France. In the first he finished 4th (doing all his best work late on) behind Buzzword and Siyouni, who went on to come 3rd and 1st in the Group 1 for 2 year old colts on Arc Day. Then when upped to a mile he finished only 1.5l behind Behkabad (gone on to win a group 1). He finished the season disappointingly at Newmarket, however it was commented then that he was a big horse and the track may not have suited him.
This being the case it is surprising that his last 4 runs have come at undulating tracks Newmarket and Goodwood. At the beginning of his 3 year old career he ran three non staying races over 11f,10f and 12f. The 10f run was especially encouraging as he ran well for a long way behind 110 rated Myplacelater and 106 rated Desert Myth.
When finally dropped to 8f with a bit of cut in the ground he bolted up at Goodwood off a 5lb lower mark with the admirable and consistent Dunno in 2nd. Two disappointing runs followed but again they were both at Newmarket. Back on a more conventional track there is every chance he can improve.
Frankie Dettori shuns him today for Invisible Man and the worry is perhaps that he runs first time out. However he won first time out as a 2yo and as a 3yo was running over a trip way too far. Saeed Bin Suroor's record this year with horses making their seasonal debut in the UK in a handicap is 4/15. However if you only look at those since the beginning of June (given more time to settle down from Dubai) the record is 041121 (50%).
At 25/1 he makes plenty of appeal. Another angle would be to perhaps take the 20/1 Paddy Power offer without Markazzi. However I am keen to take Markazzi on from his wide draw.
Another one worth a mention is Lovelace who has gone well in the hustle and bustle of these big fields in the past and has dropped to an extremely good mark. He's run OK a few times this year and it has been reported that he had a knee operation last season, so perhaps he has just been struggling on quick ground and a bit more cut will suit him. However, Dandy's horses aren't running that well at the moment, so I will probably just keep an eye on him for another day. Prime Exhibit also has a big chance on some of his form, including his second in the Lincoln last season. However, he is drawn widest of all, so although I can't put him up as a bet, I may have a couple of quid saver at 28/1.
Emirates Dream - 1pt E/W 25/1
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