*** Another pretty infuriating result. In fact it couldn't have been much worse. Arganil was heavily backed into 4/1 (1/3 of the odds advised). There were two non runners meaning the E/W placing went down from 3 (when advised) to 2 with Arganil of course coming in 3rd***
So it hasn't been going to well recently and that's probably being generous. There's part of me that wishes it could be mid-winter again and getting stuck into some big field handicaps over the sticks (which is what this blog was set up for initially). In the meantime tomorrow though I have one more whom seems just to be overpriced. That horse is ARGANIL who is 12/1 and outsider of the field in the 3.40 Catterick. I'm slightly weary as it seems I've been follwing these old boys perhaps a bit too far over the edge recently but he really seems to have everything in his favour and put up a good run at the turn of year when conditions were in his favour.
The key to ARGANIL seems to be that he needs cut in the ground (or AW) which he will most certainly get tomorrow. The ground earlier today was described as Good to Soft (Soft in places) and with all the rain we're having it looks like it will turn soft all over. Also he seems to be at his best over 5f and in many of his recent runs over 6f he is described as 'weakening in the final furlong'.
His form over 5f with the word 'soft' or AW in the going description is 1112411111 (2/2 at Southwell, which I think is more suited to horses who prefer to get there toe in?). Yes that is 8 wins from 10 runs. One second off a handicap mark of 100 trying to give 9lbs to Cheveton, and a 4th in a Group 2 (btn just under 3l) when he missed the break.
The RPRs in those 10 runs have been 105, 113, 106, 109, 101, 110, 108, 100, 95, 89. Those on turf were 109, 101, 89 (Won easily). A reproduction of any those efforts really should be enough
He may seem 'out of form', but he managed to run to an RPR of 105 when last met with these conditions in January and his run wasn't too bad 4 runs back when he was second on his side. Off a mark of 82 in this surely he has to go close if he can run within a stone of that sort of RPR. The odds suggest he has 7.5% chance of winning but I think his form suggests he has a much better chance than that.
He has a good record when being dropped back to this kind of class and all of his wins have come in fields of 12 or less runners, so perhaps this smaller field will suit him better than his last couple of runs. Kevin Ryan is in good form and Phillip Makin has got on OK with him so far (1/1 over 5f). There's already been a bit of money about for him tonight and has been cut to as low as 9s but he is still available at 12/1 with Will Hill, Boylesports and Bet 365. With the rain set to stay overnight I can see him being around top price 8/1 in 12 hours time and win, lose or draw the price is simply wrong.
2pt E/W Arganil 12/1
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