2.55 Newbury - Matula
A fillies handicap which may not seem as competitive as first seems. Much of the field struggle off their respective marks; Bahati (0 from 10 in handicaps), Belle Royale (0 from 5 in handicaps off a handicap mark over 85), Byrony (0 from 3 in handicaps all off this mark), Sonning Rose (0/4), Rosedale (Run in 14 handicaps and never progressed beyond a mark of 71, so hard to see her winning off 70), Dorice May (Hammered in 2 handicaps off a 1lb higher mark), Imaginary World (0 from 10 in handicaps, 8 off lower marks).
This leaves you with Heavenly Dawn, Watneya, Al Maysah and Matula. Al Maysah doesn't look well handicapped and connections have always said she'll be a 10f horse, so the drop to a mile is worrying. Watneya was very disappointing last time with no obvious excuses. Heavenly Dawn is an obvious one being a typical Stoute unexposed older horse and is a sister to group performer Heaven Sent. She is the one to beat, but with it yet to be seen how much rain Newbury will get (apparently needs it) the top price 13/8 available is easily opposed.
Matula to me is the one horse in the field apart from Heavenly Dawn who has the potential to be much better than her mark. First time up last year she bolted up in a Ffos Las maiden. That day she left such horses as Charles Camoin and Census in her wake. She was then stepped up to Listed Class behind Blue Bunting. That day she ran well desite racing keenly, quickening with the principals initially before weakening. RP commented after the run that 'there's much more to come from her next year and she should be well up to winning at this level'.
This year she has had two disappointing runs, but she's a big filly and she will have come on plenty for his first run so that can be forgiven. Last time out she was disappointing, but like her seasonal debut that was over 10f and perhaps she's better suited by a mile (weakened on her final start as a 2 year old over a mile, so hardly looks crying out for 10f). Also her trainer now reaches for the cheekpieces. Interestingly he has quite a good record with 3 year olds in cheekpieces. He's 4 from 24 with them first time out with winners at 11/2, 16/1, 9/1 and 11/4.
All her form is on good or slower, so any rain shouldn't be a problem for her.
At 20/1 she makes appeal E/W. Also it may perhaps be worth having a saver on her without the favourite at 9/1 with Paddy Power
Matula - 1pt E/W 20/1 Stan James, 0.5pt Win (W/O Heavenly Dawn) 9/1
3.40 Newmarket - Guided Missile
Guided Missile is a full sister and looks thoroughly progressive. The rain should not be a problem at all for her having won on soft last time and her sister Dark Missile won the Wokingham on good to soft. The form of her last race hasn't worked out badly and with the Balding string in decent form the 10/3 available looks massive with a lot of the field yet to prove they go on the ground.
Guided Missile - 3pt Win 10/3 Bet 365
7.40 Haydock - Ingleby Exceed
Another well bred filly like Guided Missile who is starting to make her mark in handicaps. Won well last time over 7f and this trip is only going to suit her more based on both her running style and pedigree (mare won a listed 1m event). She's only been put up 6 pounds for her easy winning last time and with the man of the moment Silvestre De Sousa on board another big run has to be expected.
Ingleby Exceed - 1.5pt Win 7/2 Bet 365
1pt E/W Double on the two at 7/2 and 10/3 with Bet365
5.10 Newbury - Baltimore Clipper
Baltimore Clipper now looks ready strike being both back to a winning mark and also putting in an eyecatching run last time at Sandown. That day he stayed on strongly when in the clear and the step up to 2 miles looks like it could well suit him. Around this time last year he won over 12f in a race that has worked out very well. He gave Nave a 3lb and 3/4l beating (now rated 88) and a further 3/4l back was Giants Play (has since won a Gr2 in America). The trio pulled 6l clear of the fourth and he is now back to the same mark, 75. Another bit of form that makes him look well handicapped is when he came 3l 2nd behind Mount Athos (now rated 103) off level weights, the pair 11l clear. All his best form is on Good, so the rain shouldn't be much off a problem.
Baltimore Clipper - 1pt E/W 14/1 - General
8.40 Haydock - Balletlou
At 25/1 I just can't resist giving Balletlou one more chance. The first time out last year she won her maiden in the style of a very exciting horse, especially as it seemed she didn't have a clue what she was doing. Next time out she was sent off just 5/1 for a warm 3yo handicap on King George day at Ascot (off a 8lb higher mark than today). Even though she was beaten easily (8l) it shows they must hold her in some regard for her to go off so short. She has disappointed twice since but last time she stumbled and lost her action so it is probably best to forgive her the run. With Art Scholar out it looks and open and weak contest and 25/1 is too big.
Balletlou - 0.5pt E/W 25/1 Boylesports
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