2/7/2011

*** Like to think I was proved somewhat right about the price by the fact that Catalyze was heavily gambled on into an SP of 8/1. However after travelling well (hit 7/2 IR) he faded and finished towards the back of the field***

Things haven't been going to well recently, but hopefully the corner shall turn soon. Got another one today which for the life of me I can't work out why he is 33/1. Maybe the fact the bookies are offering that price is saying something though.

The horse is CATALYZE in the 4.50 at Sandown today at a big price. 33/1 E/W 1/4 the Odds seems massive with Skybet.

Trainer said in the stable tour about him "He did nothing wrong last year and has done well over the winter. We’ll probably start him off over 7f and see where we go, but he could be one for the Britannia at Royal Ascot. He wants fast ground and there’s certainly a decent race in him"

His 2 year old form was decent. Balding says he wants fast ground and on his only run on GF (after debut on AW) he beat SAGRAMOR by 4l off level weights when winning a maiden. Sagramor of course won the Brittania and is now rated 99. Catalyze runs today off 83.

Next start he ran in a nursery off 85 on GS (so softer than ideal) and ran very well to come a close 3rd. The form of that race has worked out extremely well.

1st - Whisper Louise - Now rated 12lbs higher in UK, since that rating has come 2nd in Gr2 in America
2nd - Byonic - Hasn't run
3rd - Catalyze
4th - Reroute - Now rated 19lbs higher
5th - Fred Willets - Now rated 19lbs higher

He then ran on softer ground than ideal again in a race at Ascot. Off level weights he was only beaten 7l by Dubawi Gold (OR 117 now) 4l by Tazahum (OR 107) and 3.5l by Big Issue (OR 106)

He's had two starts this year both disappointing. But the trainer commented beforehand that he'd need the race first time out (came on a 25lbs for his first run as a 2yo on Racing Post ratings) and last time at Ascot the ground would have been too soft for him.

As a consequence he has dropped 4lbs to 83. Considering the trainer said he should have a decent race in him when he was rated 87, surely in this weaker race he should go close at 33/1.

33/1 too big E/W

1.5pt E/W @ 33/1 Skybet (1/4 the odds, top 3)